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Hvorfor er det så vanskelig å få til en klimaavtale som monner?

Hvorfor er det så vanskelig å få til en klimaavtale som monner?. Steinar Andresen (FNI) Bjart Holtsmark (SSB) Ole Røgeberg (Frisch). Hvordan ligger vi an?. Necessary factors for a functioning climate treaty. Reduced global warming. Necessary factors for a functioning climate treaty.

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Hvorfor er det så vanskelig å få til en klimaavtale som monner?

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  1. Hvorfor er det så vanskelig å få til en klimaavtale som monner? Steinar Andresen (FNI) Bjart Holtsmark (SSB) Ole Røgeberg (Frisch)

  2. Hvordan ligger vi an?

  3. Necessaryfactors for a functioningclimatetreaty Reduced global warming

  4. Necessaryfactors for a functioningclimatetreaty Reduced global warming • Cognitive flaws de-dramatize the problem • Possible future technological advances induce procrastination • Decades-long lag of actions on climate system favors adaptation over mitigation

  5. Klimaproblemet er ”et badekar” Stabilizedemissionlevel Stabilizedemissionlevel Stabilizedemissionlevel

  6. Future progress ”may” solve or make it cheaper to solvethe problem • Technology/cost • Secondgenerationbiofuel (cellulosic) • Thirdgenerationbiofuel (algae) • Geoengineering • Fusion • Electric cars (esp. batterytechnology) • Carboncapture and storage • Solar • Wind • Better treaties • Globallytradedcarbonquotas • Quotas for ”emergingeconomies”

  7. Politiske insentiver er rettet mot tilpasning/geo-engineering • Tilpasning/geoengineering • Bedrer dagens problemer på kort sikt • Klimakutt • Har kostnader i dag, men forhindrer ”bare” ytterligere problemer om flere tiår

  8. Ingen land er store nok til at de kan løse problemet på egen hånd

  9. Necessaryfactors for a functioningclimatetreaty Reduced global warming • Free-rider problem: No nations with incentives for unilateral abatement • Cost allocation problem: Most future emissions expected from today’s poor

  10. 70% of ”business as usual” emissionsneed to be cut With emission ”cost” at $50 per ton CO2, total burden to be allocatedequals ~4 x current global GDP With emission ”cost” of $50 – the total burden to be allocated is ~4 x current global GDP Global CO2 emissions in developing and industrialized countries in the IPCC reference scenario A1 MESSAGE (grey curves), and in a scenario consistent with a target (colored curves).

  11. Most emissionreductionsneed to come from emergingeconomies

  12. Necessaryfactors for a functioningclimatetreaty Reduced global warming • Treaty needs to permanently alter national incentives • Enforcement must be in the interest of the enforcers

  13. Konsekvent gjennomført klimapolitikk på sikt krever at land er ”låst fast” av permanent endrede insentiver • Avtaleverk med tilstrekkelig straff for utslipp utover det avtalte • Medlemsland som godtar å binde seg til strafferegime • Medlemsland som velger å straffe land som bryter avtalen

  14. Men hva med Kyoto.... ?

  15. Kyoto: Utslippskuttene skyldes ikke avtalen – men østblokkens kollaps

  16. Land utenfor østblokken slipper ut mer enn målet (før kvotekjøp osv) Emission targets France, Sweden, Monaco and Great Britain Emission change (1990-2006)

  17. Kyoto ”straffe-mekanismen” er uten betydning • Slipper du ut for mye blir dette +33% lagt til i neste periodes mål • MEN! • Neste periodes mål avtales med det enkelte land… • Du kan hoppe av avtalen og unngå straffen (jamfør Canada)

  18. Backup

  19. People’s ”intuition” makes theclimate problem seem less severe

  20. Typical response: pattern matching

  21. GDP catch-up and demographics major part ofclimate problem

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