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The Future of California: Demographic Change, Economic Uncertainty, and Forward Thinking

This article discusses the impact of demographic changes and economic uncertainty on the future of California. It highlights the importance of equity and growth, and the need for leaders to address these issues. It also emphasizes the role of adult education in empowering the workforce and improving the economy.

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The Future of California: Demographic Change, Economic Uncertainty, and Forward Thinking

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  1. CALIFORNIA FORWARD DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, AND THE FUTURE 04.21.17 MANUEL PASTOR @Prof_MPastor

  2. IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR Immigrant Share of the Population, United States, California, and Los Angeles County, 1860-2014

  3. A MORE SETTLED IMMIGRANT POPULATION Percent of Immigrant Population in U.S. Since 2004

  4. THE LEGACY OF IMMIGRATION

  5. THE LEGACY OF IMMIGRATION

  6. WHO STAYS?

  7. A NEW GENERATION GAP?

  8. ARIZONA IS NUMBER ONE . . .

  9. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Source: Economic Policy Institute

  10. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Source: US Census

  11. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Source: US Census

  12. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Household Gini Coefficient , 2014 Source: US Census

  13. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Source: California Budget and Policy Center

  14. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Source: IPUMS

  15. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY California productivity growth greater than nation California compensation growth lower than nation

  16. Source: IPUMS

  17. Source: IPUMS

  18. PERSISTENT RACIAL GAPS Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity, California Source: IPUMS

  19. REPRODUCING RACIAL GAPS California kids of color concentrated in high-poverty schools

  20. REPRODUCING RACIAL GAPS

  21. LOCK ‘EM UP . . . AND ITS LEGACY

  22. THINKING NEW: EQUITY AND GROWTH Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth—for everyone. Source: http://storage.cloversites.com/northriverside baptistchurch/site_images/sub_page70_picture0.jpg USC PERE | November 2013 | 31

  23. EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH Even the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth. Image Sources: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/2/24/1235500211963/Ben-Bernanke-chairman-of--003.jpg; http://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Fed-logo_trans.png; http://www.benjamindrickey.com/gallery/gallery_federal_reserve.jpg

  24. EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH

  25. EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH We have developed these ideas further in . . .

  26. THINKING NEW: DISCOVERING THE WHY • Social tensions over who will gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive • Underinvestment in each other makes us less competitive as regions and as a nation

  27. AND WHY SO IMPORTANT NOW? http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/847889448.gif?1397145494&maxX=740&maxY=704

  28. LEADING FORWARD • So it’s a challenge for all of us: business leaders must rethink the role of equity and understand the new demography • But equity proponents need to see economic realities &propose growth-enhancing approaches • And one of the “Just Growth” sweet spots is adult education– empowered workforce, better economy

  29. IMPLICATIONS FOR LEADERSHIP • Recognize that this is an aspirational not an angry constituency • Stress that equity and inclusion are fundamental not add-on’s • Help people understand the task is not just to beat the odds but change the odds • Push folks to see community college students as having agency – and being agents

  30. IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMUNITY COLLEGES • Accept that it’s a broader mission that we’re on – to bridge social structure & individual initiative

  31. FOR MORE . . . @Prof_MPastor

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