1 / 16

Special Winter Weather Briefing 2/3/2011 slides: srh.noaa/shv/briefing

Special Winter Weather Briefing 2/3/2011 slides: www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. Tonight/Friday Arctic air in place across the region

stasia
Download Presentation

Special Winter Weather Briefing 2/3/2011 slides: srh.noaa/shv/briefing

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Special Winter Weather Briefing2/3/2011slides:www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing Keith Stellman National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  2. Overview Tonight/Friday Arctic air in place across the region Upper level system moves in and draws moisture in from the gulf over the cold air. Accumulations of 1-3 inches snow/minor sleet accumulations possible I-20 Corridor and south (Winter Weather Advisory area) Tyler>Longview>Shreveport>Magnolia>El Dorado and points south. Ice accumulations of 0.25-0.50 inches possible…(Winter Storm Warning area) Lufkin->Nacogdoches>Natchitoches->Winnfield>Monroe>Columbia>Colfax>Jena Beginning this evening 6 pm ending by 6 pm Friday. (Winter precipitation north of the Winter Storm Warning area may begin a little later than 6 pm this evening.) National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  3. Big Picture H L L L Friday Today Tngt Strong Upper Level Low Pressure Area National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

  4. Regional View Snow Pack

  5. Temperatures Thursday Wind Chills Highs

  6. Winter Storm Warning/Advisory (6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday • Winter Precipitation expected across the entire Four State Region. • Warning areas in blue. • Advisory areas in purple.

  7. Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Dilemma Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Shreveport • High Res models suggest all snow in NW LA and portions of East Texas • Warm nose not as prevalent as the air is too cold to start Surface Tempeatures 25-28 Freezing line Height

  8. Sleet/snow/Freezing rain DilemmaTemperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Monroe • High Res models suggest all snow in NW LA and portions of East Texas • Warm nose not as prevalent as the air is too cold to start Surface Tempeatures 27-30 Freezing line Height

  9. Sleet/snow/Freezing rain Dilemma Temperature profile at 6 AM Friday - Monroe • Warm Nose appears and looks deep enough to melt the snow • Could either be sleet or freezing rain • Lufkin -> Natchitoches ->Columbia Freezing line Surface Tempeatures 28-31 Height

  10. Model Forecast 3 AM Friday • Models waver on the mix line. • Blue barbs indicate south winds transporting moisture north Snow to Sleet/Freezing Rain Line

  11. Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) High Res Model • Model has been trending toward higher amounts in the Southeastern Parishes (0.50-1.00”) • Sabine, Natchitoches, Grant, Winn, La Salle, Caldwell

  12. Total Liquid Equivalent (precip amounts) Model Concensus (SREF) • This blend shows the highest swath in the Southeast and south (0.50-1.00”) • Sabine, Natchitoches, Grant, Winn, La Salle, Caldwell • The 2” line

  13. Overall Forecast

  14. Thu PM/Friday Lows Highs

  15. Impacts • Swath of 1”-4” of snow south of a Jacksonville->Marshall->Magnolia line • Sleet/Snow/Freezing Rain along a Lufkin ->Natchitoches->Columbia Line • Lower visibilities • Ground temps cold…precip will stick to bridges/overpasses and main roadways • Cold temperatures through Saturday AM to keep it around • If Freezing rain materializes, could be talking about 0.25-0.75” in the southeast…possibly higher in Grant/La Salle/Natchitoches • Over 0.50” would cause widespread Power outages • Instant freeze on all surfaces with temps in the 20s

  16. NEXT CONFERENCE CALL: Thursday 10 AM www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

More Related