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R EGIONAL P OPULATION A GEING IN T HAILAND

Thuttai KEERATIPONGPAIBOON Department of Economics School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. R EGIONAL P OPULATION A GEING IN T HAILAND. The 11 th IFA Global Conference on Ageing 28 May – 1 June 2012. Prague, the Czech Republic

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R EGIONAL P OPULATION A GEING IN T HAILAND

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  1. Thuttai KEERATIPONGPAIBOON Department of Economics School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London REGIONAL POPULATION AGEING IN THAILAND The 11th IFA Global Conference on Ageing 28 May – 1 June 2012. Prague, the Czech Republic International Federation on Ageing (IFA) A part of the CSEAS Project

  2. Structure 1 2 3 4 5 1 Introduction 2 Situation of Regional Population Ageing in Thailand 3 Living Arrangements by Region 4 Changes in Economic Behaviour by Region 5 Conclusions

  3. Introduction 1 2 3 4 5 Significances of the Research • Thailand is now an ageing society; the share of elderly population reached 10% in the 2000s. • However, many parts of Thailand have not been ageing yet! • Changes in demographic structure have lead to changes in household composition, living arrangements and economic behaviour, which the situations are different in each area. • The society should concern both national and regional levels. • This research reveals the situations of population ageing in five regions of Thailand. share Methodology • Data • The Socio-Economic Survey (SES), Thailand, 1988-2007 (NSO) • The Survey of Older Persons in Thailand (SOP), 2007 (NSO) • The Population Projections for Thailand, 2000-2030 (NESDB) • Secondary sources • Methodology • Descriptive Analysis • Econometric Analysis: Linear Regression Analysis and Probit Model NSO: National Statistical Office (Thailand) NESDB: National Economic and Social Development Board (Thailand)

  4. Structure 1 2 3 4 5 1 Introduction 2 Situation of Regional Population Ageing in Thailand 3 Living Arrangements by Region 4 Changes in Economic Behaviour by Region 5 Conclusions

  5. Situation of Regional Population Ageing 1 2 3 4 5 • The main reasons for different situations of population ageing in five regions are different rates of fertility and net migration. • Presently, the North has the highest share of the elderly and old-age dependency ratio; the North experienced demographic changed before others. • In the next decade, Bangkok is projected to be the oldest region in Thailand due to (1) new trend of out-migration and (2) higher longevity of Bangkokians. Fertility Rate Source: Author’s own calculation from the Population Projections (NESDB, 2007)

  6. Situation of Provincial Population Ageing 1 2 3 4 5 • 2000:Most provinces have an old-age dependency ratio below 16 percent, especially those in Northeast and South. 2000 Estimates Source: Author’s own calculation from the Population Projections (NESDB, 2007)

  7. Situation of Provincial Population Ageing 1 2 3 4 5 • 2000:Most provinces have an old-age dependency ratio below 16 percent, especially those in Northeast and South. • 2000-2010:Increasing shares of the elderly and higher old-age dependency ratios (baby-boomers are retiring). • 2000-2010: Sing Buri is the oldest province. • 2000-2010: Samut Prakarn is the youngest province; young people have migrated into for employment opportunities (the new airport has been operating since 2006). 2010 Projections Source: Author’s own calculation from the Population Projections (NESDB, 2007)

  8. Situation of Provincial Population Ageing 1 2 3 4 5 2020 • 2020: Thailand will be a completely ageing society. None of provinces will have the elderly share below 10%. • 2020: 16 provinces is projected be an aged society. • 2020: Sing Buri will (still) be the oldest province; meanwhile, Narathiwat is expected to be the youngest province. • This is probably due to (1) conflict/violence in the South or (2) lower fertility rate compared to other provinces. • NOTE: new industrial cities and Thai-Muslim provinces are also found to have low old-age dependency ratios. Projections Source: Author’s own calculation from the Population Projections (NESDB, 2007)

  9. Structure 1 2 3 4 5 1 Introduction 2 Situation of Regional Population Ageing in Thailand 3 Living Arrangements by Region 4 Changes in Economic Behaviour by Region 5 Conclusions

  10. Living Arrangements by Region Living Arrangements of Thai elderly people by region, Thailand, 1990 & 2007 1 2 3 4 5 1990 2007 • Thai elderly people still live in multi-generational households. • Majority of the elderly in Bangkok live in two-generational households; meanwhile, those in the Northeast and Central regions live in three-generational households. • However, more elderly people are found in one-generation HHs (living alone or just with a spouse) in all areas. • In the North and Northeast, more elderly persons are found in skipped generation households. • Households in all regions are now smaller due to delayed marriage and attitude towards having children. Source: Author’s own calculation from the SES data (1990 & 2007)

  11. Structure 1 2 3 4 5 1 Introduction 2 Situation of Regional Population Ageing in Thailand 3 Living Arrangements by Region 4 Changes in Economic Behaviour by Region 5 Conclusions

  12. Changes in Household Saving Patterns • The financial crisis has taught Thais about uncertainty. • Thai households tend to save more for their own sakes. • Households in Bangkok have the highest rate of savings. following by households in the Central, North, South and Northeast, respectively. 1 2 3 4 5 • High Consumption • Bubbled Economy • Low Household Savings • Attitude: Consume now, save later 1997 Asian Financial Crisis

  13. Changes in Household Saving Patterns Age Profiles of Savings (Whole Kingdom), by ages of household heads, 2007 1 2 3 4 5  Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data

  14. Changes in Household Saving Patterns 1 2 3 4 5  Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data

  15. Employment Behaviour of the Elderly • Thais tend to stay longer in the workforce. • The share of elderly persons (60+) in the workforce increased from 3.6% in 1986 to 7.0% in 2006 • In 2007, 35.56 percent of Thai elderly people were economically active. • More than forty percent of the elderly in the South were working; the highest figure compared to other regions (N/E, North, Central and BKK, respectively.) • The main reasons for being active are that (1) they have responsibility for their own family, and (2) they are still healthy. • Most elderly persons in Bangkok work because sixty years of age is too early to stop working; while the elderly in other regions work for their survival. • On the other hand, health problems are main reasons for the elderly to leave the labour force. • The elderly living in one-/skip-generational HHs are more likely to work than those living in two-/three-generational HHs. • Family relationship is an important factor determining employment status of elderly persons. 1 2 3 4 5 Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data and the 2007 SOP data

  16. Employment Behaviour of the Elderly 1 2 3 4 5 Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios

  17. Structure 1 2 3 4 5 1 Introduction 2 Situation of Regional Population Ageing in Thailand 3 Living Arrangements by Region 4 Changes in Economic Behaviour by Region 5 Conclusions

  18. Conclusions 1 2 3 4 5 Conclusions • Thailand will be an absolutely ageing society in the next decade. • Changes in demographic structure have affected both social and economic aspects. Household composition and living arrangements of Thai households as well as household economic behaviour have changed remarkably in these few decades. • Evidently, Thai people in every region are still living in multi-generational households. • However, more people tend to live alone or just with their spouse. • There are an increasing number of elderly persons in the Northeast and North found in skipped generation households. This should be a serious concern since these people are more likely to live in financial hardship compared to the elderly in other living arrangements. • The government itself cannot afford in taking care every elderly person in the country. Therefore, family should play a crucial role in looking after their ageing members. Policy Implications • Strengthening family relationship. • Improving the social safety nets and welfares. • Focusing more on the elderly poor.

  19. Thank You Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon Department of Economics SOAS, University of London Email: 231827@soas.ac.uk

  20. SupportingDocuments

  21. Factors affecting Family Relationship Main factors are Industrialisation, Urbanisation and Mgigration 1 2 3 4 5 - Family Productive Enterprise Wage Employment of Individuals Parental Power - - + Industrialisation - Cost of Home-produced Goods Joint/Stem Family Female Labour Force Participations + - - + Demand for Female Labour - + + + Ability to Purchase Privacy/Care Care of the Elderly + + Universal Primary and Secondary Schooling Per Capita Income + + - - + Fertility + + + Child Survival Availability of Caregivers - + Filial Piety + + Housing Availability - Urbanisation + Separation of the Generations + Migration Remarks: - Straight and single-headed arrows show casual relationships that run from the cause to the effect; meanwhile, curved and double-headed arrows represent correlated factors, - A sign shown next to the arrow demonstrates a relation between factors. The net impact of factors can be calculated by multiplying the signs. For example, if there is a negative sign between factor A and B, and also a negative sign between factor B and C, the relationship of factors A and C is positive. Source Mason (1992), Figure 1

  22. Situation: Regional Population Ageing 1 2 3 4 5 Shares of the Elderly and Old-age Dependency Ratios by Region, Thailand, 2000-2025  Source: Author’s own calculation from the Population Projections (NESDB, 2007)

  23. Old-age Employment Shares of the elderly, by living arrangement and employment status, Thailand, 2007 1 2 3 4 5  Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data

  24. Old-age Employment Shares of active elderly persons, by age group and living arrangement, Thailand, 2007 1 2 3 4 5  Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data

  25. Elderly Poverty Shares of the elderly poor, by region, Thailand, 1990-2007 1 2 3 4 5 • Poverty is defined when household income per capita is below a poverty line. • Elderly poverty is commonly found in the Northeast and North. • Low-income HHs have less ability to save compared to rich HHs. Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data Percentage of the Elderly Poor, by Region, 1990-2007 Saving Patterns of Thai HHs, by Age of HH Head and Income Deciles, 2007  Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data

  26. Fertility Rates by Region 1 2 3 4 5 Remarks: 1 Bangkok was included in the Central region during 1960-1969; 2 1970 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; 3 1980 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; 4 1990 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office; 5 2000 Census with Indirect Method Estimate, National Statistic Office; 6 The United Nations (2009a), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision; 7 Survey of Population Change, National Statistical Office. Source: adapted from Table 1 in Prachuabmoh and Mithranon (2003).  26

  27. Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios 1 2 3 4 5  27

  28. Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios Estimates Projections Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, the World, 1980-2020 1 2 3 4 5  28 Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on March 1, 2010.

  29. Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios Projections Estimates Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, Thailand, 1980-2020 1 2 3 4 5  29 Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on March 1, 2010.

  30. Reasons for Labour-Force Participation Elderly People in Thailand answered in the 2007 Survey of Older Persons in Thailand by NSO 1 2 3 4 5  30 Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data

  31. Reasons for Labour-Force Withdrawal Elderly People in Thailand answered in the 2007 Survey of Older Persons in Thailand by NSO 1 2 3 4 5  31 Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data

  32. Natural Increases and Net Migration Estimates (1950-2009) and Projections (2010-2050), Thailand 1 2 3 4 5 Remark: Natural Increase = Births – Deaths Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Monday, March 07, 2011; 8:54:01 AM. 32

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