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Revised Birth and Fertility Rates and the 2000 Census

This article discusses the need to revise birth and fertility rates using the latest census data for more accuracy. It also compares fertility rates for Black and Hispanic women based on the 1990 and 2000 censuses.

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Revised Birth and Fertility Rates and the 2000 Census

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  1. Revised Birth and Fertility Rates and the 2000 Census Brady E. Hamilton, Ph.D. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics Division of Vital Statistics

  2. Why revise birth and fertility rates?

  3. To provide more accurate birth and fertility rates incorporating the latest census data.

  4. Comparison of general fertility rates for Black women based on the 1990 and 2000 censuses: United States, 1991-2001 0 Note: Rates are per 1,000 women age 15-44 years. SOURCE: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System

  5. Comparison of general fertility rates for Hispanic women based on the 1990 and 2000 censuses: United States, 1991-2001 0 Note: Rates are per 1,000 women age 15-44 years. SOURCE: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System

  6. Hispanic and race questions on the 1990 and 2000 census short form 1990 2000

  7. 1997 Office of Management and Budget revisions to the standards for race and ethnicity • Establishes an order of the race and ethnicity questions. The Hispanic question should precede the race question. • Establishes two (minimum) categories for data on ethnicity: “Hispanic or Latino” and “Not Hispanic or Latino.” The term “Spanish Origin” may be included.

  8. 1997 Office of Management and Budget revisions to the standards for race and ethnicity (continued) • Establishes a standard of five (minimum) race categories for Federal data collection systems: American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Black or African American, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and White. • Mandates the collection of more than one race.

  9. Incompatibility • Race data from vital records and the 2000 census (or produced for postcensal and intercensal estimates) are not compatible. • The Office of Management and Budget recognizes the problem of incompatibility between data systems and allows agencies to employ a “bridge period.”

  10. Bridging methods • Employ a model that translates multiple race responses for an individual into the one, single response the model predicts that the individual most likely would have reported under the old standard. • Help users understand relationship between old and new data series. • Provide consistent numerators and denominators for transition period, before all data are available in the new format.

  11. NCHS Approach • NCHS has collaborated with the Census Bureau to produce a modified race census file with multiple-race populations bridged to single races. • NCHS developed a bridging algorithm that was provided to the Census Bureau to use in creating population counts and postcensal and intercensal estimates with bridged race data. • Goal was to obtain bridged data at the county and State level, as well as national.

  12. NCHS approach (continued) • NCHS’s algorithm is based primarily on data from recent years of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). • Since 1982, the NHIS has allowed respondents to select more than one race, and up to two races were recorded through 1996 (as many as five have been recorded since 1997). • NHIS respondents reporting more than one race were asked to name their “primary” or “main” race, that is, the “race that best describes them.”

  13. NCHS approach (continued) • Percent distribution of main race for each race combination is used to allocate proportionally multiracial persons to a single race at the county level. • Algorithm involved multinomial logistic regression of main race on various covariates for each multiple-race combination for which sufficient NHIS data exist.

  14. U.S. populations with bridged race categories available from NCHS • Population estimates for April 1, 2000 by county, age, bridged-race, Hispanic origin, and sex • Postcensal population estimates for July 1, 2000 - July 1, 2002, by year, county, age, bridged-race, Hispanic origin, and sex • Intercensal population estimates for July 1, 1990-July 1, 1999, by year, county, age, bridged-race, Hispanic origin, and sex

  15. Website address http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm

  16. Contacts Deborah D. Ingram DDIngram@cdc.gov Brady E. Hamilton BHamilton@cdc.gov

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