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A support system for predicting eBay end prices

This paper presents a support system that predicts the end prices of items on eBay, helping buyers and sellers find bargains and determine reasonable sales prices. The system utilizes a boosting model based on closed auctions of similar products. Sellers can submit draft auction pages and get indications of sales prices, while buyers can check item prices and find bargains.

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A support system for predicting eBay end prices

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  1. A support system for predicting eBay end prices Presenter : Shu-Ya Li Authors : Dennis van Heijst, Rob Potharst, Michiel van Wezel DSS 2008

  2. Outline • Motivation • Objective • Methodology • Experiments and Results • Conclusion • Personal Comments

  3. Motivation • The market price of a product is generally non-stationary at eBay — it fluctuates over time. How to make the auction be easier? Buyers Sellers • Many bargains • How to check prices of items? • Reasonable sales price? • Item description?

  4. Objectives • Finding these bargains can be made easier by using a support system. • We create a support system for predicting end prices on eBay. End price Buyers Sellers   • Many bargains • Check prices of items • Reasonable sales price • Item description  

  5. x Methodology 1. Input Data 3. LSBoost Feedback rating • Feedback rating • Number of pictures • Item description Number of pictures 2. CART Number of pictures Prediction price Feedback rating

  6. CART (Classification And Regression Trees) • CART • A binary tree. • Each decision node has two child nodes, which may again be decision nodes or leaf nodes. Feedback rating ≦100 Yes No Number of pictures≦5 Feedback rating ≦120 Yes No Yes No Number of pictures≦10 $900 Yes No $1,100

  7. Experiments

  8. Conclusion • The predictions are based on a boosting model, which uses closed auctions of some product to predict prices for current auctions of the same product. • Sellers can use this system to • submit draft versions of eBay auction pages. • get an indication of a reasonable sales price. • get the hints on terms to include in their ad text. • Buyers can use this system to • check prices of items they have interest in and to locate bargains.

  9. Personal Comments • Advantage • … • Drawback • … • Application • Hedonic Price • Investment

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