RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE APPLICATION OF SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT TECHNIQUES

1. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS WORKING PARTY (STESWP) 26-28 JUNE 2006 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE APPLICATION OF SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT TECHNIQUES

2. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE APPLICATION OF SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT TECHNIQUES Session aim: Non-technical discussion on: • What further guidelines and recomendations need to be developed with regards to application of seasonal adjustment techniques for STS. • STESWP feedback has indicated that seasonal adjustment issues are still a high priority for members. • Any future work would need to complement initiatives within the EU, (especially by Eurostat) and at the national level

3. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE APPLICATION OF SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT TECHNIQUES This brief introductory presentation will outline: • Work done to date on seasonal adjustment by STESWP (STESEG) • Initiatives currently underway within Eurostat: • May 2006 meeting • New Eurostat task force on seasonal adjustment • “Handbook on seasonal adjustment” being prepared by the Hungarian CSO • Current OECD seasonal adjustment procedures

4. WORK TO DATE BY STESWP / STESEG ON SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT Discussed at first STESEG meeting in 2002: • OECD presented an overview of current national practices in seasonal adjustment in OECD Member countries – many issues outlined, especially with regards to diverse national practices still relevant • Followed by a presentation by David Findley (US Bureau of Census) on latest technical developments in seasonal adjustment: • Ensuing discussion determined that topic warranted further work by STESEG – Seasonal adjustment & data presentation task force set up

5. STESEG DATA PRESENTATION AND SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT TASK FORCE Formulated recommendations on issues related to the presentation of seasonally adjusted data, e.g.: • standard terminology on key terms; • forms of data to be presented to users in press releases, etc; • analytical transformations of data in forms of different types of growth rates; • what sort of information about seasonal adjustment that should be presented to users Discussed at STESEG in 2003 & 2004 – found way into Section 5 of Data and Metadata Presentation and Reporting Handbook

6. STESEG 2005 Members felt that national practices were still sufficiently different to warrant further work by the Working Party on seasonal adjustment • Countries were not very specific on the precise nature of that work – technical or non-technical (most technical developments being undertaken in US, Spain, Italy and Eurostat) • Need to be aware of Eurostat work to avoid duplication of effort • Need for identification of issues at 2006 STESWP, or drop topic

7. CURRENT EUROSTAT INITIATIVES Work of the STESEG task forces (cont.) • May 2006 meeting (David Brackfield) • New Eurostat task force on seasonal adjustment (Brian Newson) • “Handbook on seasonal adjustment” being prepared by the Hungarian CSO (Tamás Kotulics)

8. CURRENT OECD SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROCEDURES • OECD presents time series in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted form. • Preference is to publish national seasonally adjusted series where available – aim to minimise risk of publishing data that are different. • Observation is that a wide range of packages are used across countries, even within the same country • Secretariat seasonally adjusts series where national series not available – uses X12-ARIMA

9. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSIONS BY STESWP IN 2006 • Are there any national recent developments in the area of seasonal adjustment delegates wish to raise? • Are there any proposed changes taking place at the national level which would benefit from consideration at the international level level, e.g. formulation of corporate policy SA policy, use of trend analysis? • What could be undertaken by STESWP, as either standalone project or in co-operation with Eurostat?

10. THANK YOU