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Challenges and Future of Census Data Integration

This lecture discusses the challenges facing traditional census data, explores alternative data collection methods like administrative sources, and delves into future directions. Topics include declining response rates, extracting data from administrative sources, international comparisons, and plans for the UK 2011 Census. The rise of administrative data sources and the need for an integrated population statistics system are also examined.

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Challenges and Future of Census Data Integration

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  1. Census and administrative data sources 3: Integration and future development

  2. Census and administrative data • Lecture overview Objectives of lecture Introductory questions Census challenges Census data creation from individual records Comparison with administrative sources International comparisons Future directions

  3. Objectives • To understand why censuses are becoming less effective • To consider alternative options for large scale social data collection • To explore likely routes from the present situation to the next round of censuses

  4. Introductory questions… Do we still need a census? Is a census viable as a means of collecting social data? Can’t we just use administrative records?

  5. Census challenges • Declining response rates/difficulty of enumeration • Rising demand for more up to date information • Potential of extracting relevant data from administrative sources

  6. Data from census • Reflections on class responses: data collection issues • Coverage • Who was omitted? • Accuracy • Who answered some questions incorrectly? (intentional or unintentional)

  7. Extract of person data

  8. Imputation • Validation of OCR records • Missing or impossible values • One Number Census methodology • Missing individuals • Missing households

  9. Aggregation issues • Table specification prior to data collection • Application of disclosure control methodology • Table level: threshold populations (40 households, 100 persons) • Small cell adjustment (rounding to 0 or 3) • Record swapping

  10. Table framework

  11. ‘Unsafe’ cells

  12. Record swapping

  13. Small cell rounding

  14. Hard to code variables!

  15. NS-SeC • National Statistics – socioeconomic classification • Replaces former social class and SEG • Use for Census and all official surveys • Occupation-based • Based on occupation and employment status

  16. NS-SeC: sample subdivisions Source: www.national.statistics.gov

  17. NS-SeC

  18. Interaction variables

  19. The rise of administrative data • Can provide microdata from routinely updated administrative sources • Can take snapshots and produce more frequent estimates than census • BUT no comprehensive administrative population register • Current barriers to data linkage without explicit consent of data subjects

  20. International comparisons

  21. France: rolling census • Small communes (<10,000) once every five years • Large communes sampled 1/5 per year, to achieve full coverage over five years • No conventional complete enumeration

  22. USA: short form and ACS • Abandon long form census (approx 1/6 sample in 2000 census) • Retain short form census for 2010 • American Community Survey, continuously administered, covering 2.5% addresses per year, already started

  23. Netherlands: administrative census • Statistical population register • Person ID and address provide links to administrative records • 2001 ‘census’ data constructed by snapshot matching of administrative registers

  24. Plans for UK 2011 Census • Methodology essentially as in 2001 • Focus enumeration effort on those areas hardest to count: greater variety of enumeration approaches • Post-out and post-back of census forms • Electronic form tracking system

  25. An integrated population statistics system? • ONS consultation document autumn 2003 • 2011 census • Integrated social survey system • Statistical population register • Needs address register • Would require new legislation

  26. Lecture summary • International challenges to census • Consideration of census data creation • Retreat from census-taking • Rise of administrative data sources

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