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Chapter from NanoMarkets report OLED Lighting Markets 2014

Six years ago, OLED lighting was first being proposed as a serious commercial product. Back then, 2014 was projected as the year when OLED lighting would first make its impact felt on general illumination. It didn

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Chapter from NanoMarkets report OLED Lighting Markets 2014

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  1. wwwecisolutionscom OLEDLightingMarkets2014 Nano-721 NanoMarkets May2014 ©2014NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

  2. OBJECTIVESANDSCOPE OFTHISREPORT • ThemainobjectiveofthisreportistoprovideacomprehensiveoverviewoftheOLEDlightingmarket,thusassessingthefuturepotentialandtoprovidedetailedeight-yearforecastsfortheOLEDlightingbusinessbysegregatingthemarketunderdifferentsegmentswithseparaterevenueandvolumeestimations. • Incompilingourforecasts,weexaminetheproductdevelopmentandmarketingstrategiesoftheleadingandinfluentialplayersintheOLEDlightingsector,includingbothlargeandsmalllightingfirmsandthekeyOLEDmaterialsuppliers. • WealsotakeintoconsiderationannouncementsbycurrentandprospectiveplayersintheOLEDlightingspaceregardingpricing,producttypes,capacity,andproductiontimetables.Theseannouncementsarereviewedcritically,because,insomecases,theexpectations/projectionsofsomeplayersseemhighlyunrealistictous. • ApplicationsforOLEDlightingcoveredbythisreportinclude: • Designerkitsandrelatedproducts • Luxurylighting • Decorativeandlarge-scaleinstallations • ResidentialOLEDlighting • Officelightingandothercommerciallightingapplications,and • AutomotiveapplicationsforOLEDlighting www.nanomarkets.net

  3. METHODOLOGYANDINFORMATIONSOURCES ThisreportisthelatestfromNanoMarketsthatlookscloselyatthetrendsinOLEDlighting. ThebasicforecastingapproachistoidentifyandquantifytheunderlyingaddressablelightingmarketsforOLEDlightingpanelsoverthenexteightyears,andthentoassessandquantifythepotentialforOLEDlightingtoactuallypenetratethesemarketsviasubstitutionforLEDlighting—akeyfactorinanyforecast,becauseOLEDsrepresentacompletelynewformoflightingthatwillnotreplaceexistinglightbulbsandtubesonaone-to-onebasis. Aspartoftheanalysis,wealsoassessthecompetitivelandscapeinordertodeterminethelikelylevelofcompetitionfromotherlightingtechnologiesinthedifferentaddressablemarkets.And,weconsiderhowtechnicaldevelopmentsinOLEDlightingcanaccelerate,slow,or,insomecases,halttheabilityofthistechnologytogainwidespreadcommercialization. Todeterminewheretheopportunitieslie,wehavebasedthisreportonbothprimaryandsecondaryresearch. PrimaryinformationisgatheredlargelythroughNanoMarkets'analysisofrelevantapplicationsmarketsandmarkettrendsbasedonongoingdiscussionswithkeyplayersintheOLEDlightingsegment,includingentrepreneurs,businessdevelopmentandmarketingmanagers,andtechnologists. Secondaryresearchisdrawnfromthetechnicalliterature,relevantcompanywebsites,tradejournalsandpressarticles,andvariouscollateralitemsfromtradeshowsandconferences.Thisresearchalsoincludesthecompletelibraryofourownreportsinthisfield,whichisnowquiteextensive.Wheredatahasbeenusedfromanotherreport,ithasbeenreinvestigated,reanalyzed,andreconsideredinlightofcurrentinformationandupdatedaccordingly. Thisreportisinternationalinscope.Theforecastshereareworldwideforecastsandwehavenotbeengeographicallyselectiveinthefirmsthatwehavecoveredinthisreportorinterviewedinordertocollectinformation. www.nanomarkets.net

  4. PLAN OFTHISREPORT InChapterTwoofthisreport,wereviewthetechnologicalchallengesthatneedtobeironedouttomakeroomforlarge-scalecommercializationofOLEDlighting.Welookathowtheperformancespecificationsandstandardsareevolving,aswellasdemand-sidechallengessuchasreducingcostandcreatingamarket-pullforOLEDlighting.Specialemphasishasbeenputonthediscussionbehindtheneedforacost-effectivemanufacturingtechniquethatcaneventuallyreduceretailpricesinthecomingyears. Finally,inChapterThreewereviewtheaddressablemarketswiththegoalofidentifyingwhereandhowOLEDlightingismostlikelytohavecommercialsuccess.WefocusonthosefirmsthatareactivelyinvolvedindevelopingstrategiestoimprovetheperformanceparametersofOLEDpanelsandthosethathavethepotentialtocommercializethetechnologyinabigway.Forthispurpose,wehaveconsideredbothOLEDpanelandluminairemanufacturersandOLEDmaterialmanufacturers. Atthesametime,weprovidethecoreforecastsforOLEDlightingonanapplication-by-applicationbasis,andforecastsaregivenforthetwomainscenarios—thelow-growthscenarioinwhichOLEDlightingremainsasaluxuryapplicationandthescenarioinwhichOLEDlightingbreaksintomass-marketapplications.Wedescribeassumptionsaboutpricing,markettrends,andotherfactorsthatmayinfluencetheforecasts.Theforecastsarebrokenoutbyapplicationtypeandbyproducttype(OLEDpanelvs.luminaire). www.nanomarkets.net

  5. wwwecisolutionscom ChapterOne:Introduction ©2014NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

  6. wwwecisolutionscom GLOBALPRESENCEOFTHEOLEDLIGHTINGINDUSTRY StrongmarketforOLEDlightinggiventhepresenceofPhilips UDCtodominateOLEDmaterialsspacewhileUSDOEbackedprojectsundertakenbyOLEDWorksandMoserBaerTechnologies*canspurdomesticOLEDlightingproduction GovernmentbackedfinancialsupporttohelpLGChemmoveaheadwithitsvolumeproductioninitiatives. GovernmentbackedR&DprojectstofavorthelikesofFraunhoferandOsram MitsubishiPioneer,KonicaMinolta,SumitomoandLumiotecwillleadtheOLEDlightingcommercializationdrive Chinacanemergeasacost-effectivevolumeproductiondestination;First-o-lighttohaveafirstmoveradvantage *AUSsubsidiaryofMoserBaerIndiaLtd. TheaddressablemarketforOLEDlightingpanelscaneasilysurpassthe$1billionmarkby2021fromthecurrentmarketthatisworthacoupleofmilliondollars. www.nanomarkets.net

  7. wwwecisolutionscom COMMERCIALAPPLICATIONTRENDS Professionallighting Companiesarealreadytargetingcommercialbuildings,office,automotiveandlargepublicgatheringsasthemediumtoimproveadoptionrate. Residentiallighting Onlyafewattemptsmadetoexperimentwithindoorfunctionallightingproducts,suchastablelamps,forresidentialpurposes. OLEDLightingEcosystem www.nanomarkets.net

  8. PERFORMANCECOMPARISON:KEYPARAMETERS TheabilityofOLEDstooffernumerousdesigningcapabilitiescanoffset,toanextent,therequirementforimprovementoflifetimeandefficacyinpremiumapplications. WhileOLEDlightingplayershavestartedofferingpremiumsolutions,thereisroomforenhancingmaterialcharacteristics(suchasstableblueemitters)andfabricationtechniques(suchascontinuousroll-to-rollprocessing.) Onabroaderhorizon,thecurrentperformanceofOLEDsiscomparablewithLEDs,makingOLEDsasuitablesubstituteforawiderangeoflightingapplications.However,itisthepremiumcostofOLEDsthatmustbebroughtdowntocatertothemassmarket. *OLEDpanel parametershavebeenestimatedbasedonthepanelsmadeavailablebyLGChem www.nanomarkets.net

  9. FAVORABLEFACTORSFORTHE INDUSTRY www.nanomarkets.net

  10. KEYISSUESFACED BYTHEINDUSTRY Cost-effective productionscalabilityquickly Acriticalchallengetotacklewhileensuringperformanceparametersonalargescale;alreadyprovedtobeadampenerwithPanasonicIdemitsuandGEdecidingnottomoveaheadwiththeirOLEDlightinginitiatives. Improvementofelectricalefficiency Althoughlumendepreciationprocesscanbesloweddown,thiscanleadtocomplexityinmanufacturingprocess,risingcostsandloweringyields.NovaledandToshibaarethefirmstowatchforfurtherdevelopmentsinthisspace. Bettercontrolofinternalquantumefficiency Despiteresearcharoundphosphorescentmaterials,producingstableblueemitterswithhighquantumefficiencyhasbeendifficult,makingitaweaklinkonthematerialsfront.KonicaMinoltaandUDCarethekeyplayerstowatchhere. Improvementof quantumg Needtoimprovelightextractionefficiencyfromthecurrentlevelof20-25%byoptimizingthemismatchofrefractiveindexoforganicmaterial,underlyingsubstrateandair.LGChemandNovaledarethenoteworthyplayershere. external efficiency www.nanomarkets.net

  11. TRENDSIN OLEDMATERIALDEPOSITIONTECHNIQUES MajorityofOLEDplayersarestilldependentonexpensivevapordepositiontechniqueanditwilltaketheindustryafewmoreyearstoadoptanefficientandcost-effectiveOLEDmaterialdepositiontechnique. Philips, LGChem,Osram,Lumiotec,Fraunhofer Vapordepositionprocess KonicaMinolta,Sumitomo Itmustbenotedthatsolution-printingtechniqueisyettodelivertheperformancecomparabletothecurrentlyutilizedvapordepositiontechnique. Solutionprintingprocess WhilenozzleprintingtechniqueshavebeenadaptedtoOLEDdisplaysbythelikesofDuPontandDaiNippon,ink-jetprintingtechniques(IJT)havebeenexperimentedwithformanufacturingOLEDlightingpanels. MitsubishiPioneer ThiscanbegaugedbythefactthatSumitomo,oneoftheearlyadoptersofIJT,isexpectedtorolloutOLEDlightingpanelsviaIJTandutilizingitspolymerbasedmaterialsby2015. Bothprocesses www.nanomarkets.net

  12. WAYSTOACHIEVECOSTREDUCTIONTARGETS Highlyefficientblueemitters Improvedmaterialecosystem Integratedsubstrates Enhancedexternalquantumefficiency Improvedvapordeposition /solutionprocessingtechnique Efficientactiveorganicmaterialsets Improvedlightextractioncapability Efficientmanufacturingprocess Lowvoltageandcurrentarchitecture Reducedmaterialwastage Low-costandeffectivesubstrates Improvedyields StrongIPportfolio Productdevelopmentinitiatives Improvedencapsulationtechnology Newbreakthroughs Improvedlifetime Brightness/efficacy Cost-effective Overalllowcosts www.nanomarkets.net

  13. MATERIALANDPROCESSIMPROVEMENTTIMELINE Improvementinlightextractionstructures Materialdevelopmentmilestones Emergenceofalternativestoexpensiveandinefficientencapsulationprocess Alternativestoexpensiveglasssubstrates EmergenceoftransparentmaterialsandITOalternatives Neartofullcapacityutilizationofexistinglines Lightextractionefficiency >40% Lightextractionefficiency>70% Processdevelopmentmilestones Overallyield>70% Emergenceofefficientblueemitter Overallmaterialutilization>60% Evolutionofwetchemistryprocesstoensureuniformcoatingviaacost-effectiveandfasterprocesscomparedtothecurrentlyoperationalsmallscalesolutionprocessinglines. EmergenceofR2Rapproachincommerciallines www.nanomarkets.net

  14. CURRENTPRODUCTIONFACILITYOFKEYOLEDLIGHTINGPLAYERS ProductionFacility CurrentFacilityExpectedExpansionPlans Philips Expectedtoset upGen3 lineby2014end Gen3 Expectedtoset up Gen5 lineby 2015 LGChem Gen2 Gen5 Osram Gen2 KonicaMinolta Expectedtoset upGen2 lineby2014end Gen2 Gen2 Lumiotec Currentlyworking onaGen4.5line Mitsubishi Pioneer Gen4.5 Gen2 Fraunhofer* *Fraunhoferisaninstituteandnotintendtomakemassproduction.Itmaylicenseitstechnology. Gen2linesareexpectedtoenabletheindustrytocommercializeOLEDlightingapplications;howeverPhilipsandLGChemwillremainattheforefronttomigratetolargersubstratesizesinamovetotakeadvantageofbettermaterialusageofferedbyhighergenerationlines. Pilotline www.nanomarkets.net

  15. STATUSOFCOMMERCIALAVAILABILITYOFOLEDLIGHTING LGChemandMitsubishiPioneerareexpectedtoleadtheOLEDlightingmassproductioninitiativesin2014withKonicaMinoltalikelytofollowbothfirmsin 2015. PhilipsandLumioteclikelytosupportadditionalcommercialgradelightingpanelsfrom2015onward. Prototype/pilotproductionCommerciallyavailableVolumeproduction Note:Fraunhoferisaninstituteandnotintendtomakemassproduction.Itmaylicenseitstechnology. www.nanomarkets.net

  16. POTENTIALAPPLICATIONS AcuityBrands Designerkits AstronFiamm Blackbody Office GiventhecurrentdevelopmentsintheOLEDlightingindustry,luxurylightinganddecorativelightingareexpectedtohavethemaximumcommercializationpotentialfollowedbyofficeandautomotivelightingsegments. First-o-light Kaneka KonicaMinolta LGChem Decorative Lumiotec Residentiallightingsegmentisunlikelytoreceiveamajorimpetusanytimebeforefiveyearsfromnow. MitsubishiPioneer Osram Philips Luxury Sumitomo Automotive www.nanomarkets.net

  17. COMPANIESINVOLVEDAND MAJORINVESTMENTS LGChem(SouthKorea) KonicaMinolta(Japan) LGChemwillalsolookatrecoupingitsinitialinvestmentinmigratingtoahighergenerationlinebymovingaheadwithlargescaleproductionwithinthenextthreetofiveyears. Around$100millioninvestmenttomassproduce(by2014end)color-tunableandflexiblepanelwithmaximummonthlypanelproductioncapacityofaround1millionpanels. BigValueInvestments- mainlywithinAsia Panelmanufacturers Luminairemanufacturers OLEDmaterialsuppliers WhileOsramisexpectedtochannelitspastOLEDR&Dinvestmenttocomeupwithautomotivelightingsolutionswithinthenexttwoyears,Philipswilllikelyrelyontheofficeandcommerciallightingsegmenttoreapbenefitsoutofits€40millioninvestmentinproductionlinethatstartedproducingOLEDlightingpanels(early2013)inadditiontothealreadyexistingpilotline. R&Dfacility www.nanomarkets.net

  18. OLEDLIGHTINGINDUSTRY:PROBABLEMARKETSCENARIOS Case1:DominationofLEDsCase2:MarketAcceptanceforOLEDsCase3:OLEDsNeverTakeOff OLEDlightingfindsonlylimiteduseindesignerhigh-valueapplicationsinluxuryset-ups. Theindustryridespastproductionscalabilityissuesandcomesupwithacost-effectiveroll-to-rollprocesswithanacceptableproductionyieldandbettermaterialutilizationlevels. OLEDlightingfailsandisunabletotakeoffinasignificantmannereveninpremiumcommercialapplications. LEDsmanagetoofferbetteraestheticandperformancepossibilitiesatarelativelylowerpricepoint,thusunderminingOLEDs. Possibleduetotheinabilityofthepanelmakerstostandardizeandmakethematerialdepositionandpanelfabricationtechniquescost-effective. Stable,efficientandlong-lastingblueemittersarecommerciallydevelopedonalargescale. LargesizedOLEDlightingpanelswithareasonablyhighbrightnesslevel(>5,000cd/m2)areproducedtocatertotheresidentialsegment. OLEDlightingindustrystrugglestoimprovelifetimeandencapsulationissues,thushinderingvolumeproduction. Wet-chemistryandroll-to-rollprocessesmayalsoturnoutunsuitableforlargescaleOLEDpanelproduction. TotalcostofowninganOLEDpanelismadeattractiveasJapanese,KoreanandTaiwanesemanufacturersongovernmentinitiatives. LifetimeissuesofOLEDsmightnotgetresolvedasquicklyasenvisagedpreviously. PrimaryOLEDWinners PrimaryOLEDWinners MaterialIPholderslikeUDCandLGChemwhocanthwarttheinitialeffortsextendedbyOsramandPhilips,althoughthesetwocompaniescanstillcatertomajorityoftheEuropeanmarket–akeyhigh-valuelightingdestination.OtherslikeBlackbody(France)canalsobeawinnerbyprovidingcustomizedpremiumluminaires. Encapsulationsolutionprovidersmightalsofacedifficultyinmigratingtowardastandardglassbasedalternativethatislessexpensive. DominancebymaterialIPholderslikeUDCandAsianpanelandluminairemakerswithstrongdistributionchannels;howevertheEuropeanmarketwillwitnessanincreasedpenetrationofPhilipsandOsramthatwilllookatleveragingtheirwell-establishednetwork. Mostlikelyscenariotohappen www.nanomarkets.net

  19. 3 CONTACTUS Address: NanoMarkets,LC POBox3840 GlenAllen,VA 23058 Telephone/Fax 804-270-1718 804-360-7259 Email /Web info@nanomarkets.netwww.nanomarkets.net facebook.com/pages/NanoMarkets/ twitter.com/nanomarkets linkedin.com/in/nanomarkets nanomarkets.net/rssfeeds ©2013NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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