Applications of Systems Dynamics in Integrated Modeling of Humans Embedded in Ecological System

1. Applications of Systems Dynamics in Integrated Modeling of Humans Embedded in Ecological System Robert Costanza Gordon and Lulie Gund Professor of Ecological Economics and Director, Gund Institute of Ecological Economics Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources The University of Vermont Burlington, VT 05405 www.uvm.edu/giee

2. Integrated Modeling of Humans Embedded in Ecological System • Intelligent Pluralism (Multiple Modeling Approaches), Testing, Cross-Calibration, and Integration • Multi-scale in time, space, and complexity • Can be used as a Consensus Building Tool in an Open, Participatory Process • Acknowledges Uncertainty and Limited Predictability • Acknowledges Values of Stakeholders • Evolutionary Approach Acknowledges History, Limited Optimization, and the Co-Evolution of Human Culture and Biology with the Rest of Nature

3. Major opportunities exist to enhance acceptance of models for decision-making throughparticipation in model development D e g r e e o f U n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e S y s t e m D y n a m i c s M E D I A T E D M O D E L I N G E X P E R T M O D E L I N G T y p i c a l r T y p i c a l r e s u l t : S p e c i a l i z e d m o d e l w h o s e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n n e v e r g e t s i m p l e m e n t e d b e c a u s e t h e y l a c k s t a k e h o l d e r s u p p o r t S T A T U S Q U O M E D I A T E D D I S C U S S I O N T y p i c a l r e s u l t : T y p i c a l r e s u l t : C o n f r o n t a t i o n a l d e b a t e C o n s e n s u s o n g o a l s o r a n d n o i m p r o v e m e n t p r o b l e m s b u t n o h e l p o n h o w t o a c h i e v e t h e g o a l s o r s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m s + e s u l t : C o n s e n s u s o n b o t h p r o b l e m s / g o a l s a n d p r o c e s s - l e a d i n g t o e f f e c t i v e a n d i m p l e m e n t a b l e p o l i c i e s Degree of Consensus among Stakeholders + - - From: Van den Belt, M. 2004. Mediated Modeling: A System Dynamics Approach To Environmental Consensus Building. Island Press, Washington, DC.

5. Scale Two elements: •Resolution: grain size, time step, pixel size, etc. •Extent: size of the map, time frame, etc. In three dimensions: •Space •Time •Complexity

6. Natural Capital Built Capital Human Capital Social Capital General Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) Global HSPF Large Watersheds RHESSys Everglades Landscape Model (ELM) Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) Gwyns Falls Landscape Model (GFLM) Spatial Extent Small Watersheds General Ecosystem Model (GEM) Biome BGC, UFORE Site/Patch Unit Models hydrology, buildings, population, institutions, Modules nutrients, roads, education, networks, plants power grid employment, well being income Suite of interactive and intercalibrated models over a range of spatial, temporal and system scales (extents and resolutions)

7. Model Predictability (different models have different slopes and points of intersection) Data Predictability Ln of Predictability "Optimum" resolutions for particular models Higher Lower (smaller grain) (larger grain) Ln of Resolution

8. Three complementary and synergistic ways to include humans in integrated models: • As “stakeholders” and active participants in the model conceptualization, development, construction, testing, scenario development, and implementation processes. • As “players” of the models where the model is used as both a decision aid and as a research tool to better understand human behavior in complex valuation and decision processes. • As “agents” programmed into the model based on better understanding of their goals and behavior gleaned through 1 and 2.

11. The Everglades Landscape Model (ELM) http://ecolandmod.ifas.ufl.edu/projects/index.html The ELM is a regional scale ecological model designed to predict the landscape response to different water management scenarios in south Florida, USA. The ELM simulates changes to the hydrology, soil & water nutrients, periphyton biomass & community type, and vegetation biomass & community type in the Everglades region. Current Developer s South Florida Water Management Distric t H. Carl Fitz Fred H. Sklar Yegang Wu Charles Cornwell Tim Waring Recent Collaborator s s Alexey A. Voinov Robert Costanza Tom Maxwell Florida Atlantic Universit y Matthew Evett

12. The Patuxent and Gwynns Falls Watershed Model s (PLM and GFLM) http://www.uvm.edu/giee/PLM This project is aimed at developing integrated knowledge and new tools to enhance predictive understanding of watershed ecosystems (including processes and mechanisms that govern the interconnect - ed dynamics of water, nutrients, toxins, and biotic components) and their linkage to human factors affecting water and watersheds. The goal is effective management at the watershed scale. Participants Include: Robert Costanza Costanza, R., A. Voinov, R. Boumans, T. Maxwell, F. Villa, L. Wainger, and H. Voinov. 2002. Integrated ecological economic modeling of the Patuxent River watershed, Maryland. Ecological Monographs 72:203-231. Roelof Boumans Walter Boynton Thomas Maxwell Steve Seagle Ferdinando Villa Alexey Voinov Helena Voinov Lisa Wainger

13. Patuxent Watershed Scenarios* Land Use Nitrogen Loading Nitrogen to Estuary Hydrology N in GW NPP * From: Costanza, R., A. Voinov, R. Boumans, T. Maxwell, F. Villa, L. Wainger, and H. Voinov. 2002. Integrated ecological economic modeling of the Patuxent River watershed, Maryland. Ecological Monographs 72:203-231.

14. GUMBO (Global Unified Model of the BiOsphere) From: Boumans, R., R. Costanza, J. Farley, M. A. Wilson, R. Portela, J. Rotmans, F. Villa, and M. Grasso. 2002. Modeling the Dynamics of the Integrated Earth System and the Value of Global Ecosystem Services Using the GUMBO Model. Ecological Economics 41: 529-560

15. Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) • was developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services. • is a “metamodel” in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity. • the current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters. • is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system. • includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the Anthroposphere. • links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet. • simulates the dynamics of eleven major ecosystem goods and services for each of the biomes

23. Amoeba diagram of complexity with which Integrated Global Models (IGMs) capture socioeconomic systems, natural systems, and feedbacks (from Costanza, R., R. Leemans, R. Boumans, and E. Gaddis. 2006. Integrated global models. Pp 417-446 in: Costanza, R., L. J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.). Sustainability or Collapse?: An Integrated History and future Of People on Earth. Dahlem Workshop Report 96. MIT Press. Cambridge, MA.

24. Social Capital Human Capital Built Capital MIMES Multi-scale Integrated Models of Ecosystem Services Location Biosphere Anthroposphere Ecosystem Services Cultures Earth Surfaces Nutrient Cycling Biodiversity Exchanges Between Locations Hydrosphere Lithosphere Atmosphere Geological Carbon Earth Energy Water by Reservoir Gasses Ores

25. Ability to select specific areas to model at variable spatial and temporal resolution, in their global and regional context A range of calibration sites used by project partners to test model applicability and performance. These include in the first phase: Amazon, Pacific northwest, Winoski watershed, Vermont, and Global

26. Land Use Land use Soil Drainage type Soil drainage type Water Regulation Water regulation

27. Oceans Ecosystems (% Area) Croplands Wetlands Urban Tundra Forests 43

28. Research Households 1990 economic production in $ PPP by country Agriculture Transportation Tourism Fisheries 44

29. Ecosystem Services Cultural Heritage ClimateRegulation Biological Regulation Genetic Information Inorganic Resources Natural Hazard Mitigation 45

30. Atmosphere

31. Thank You • Papers mentioned in this talk available at: • www.uvm.edu/giee/publications: