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Speaker: Igor Sirnik Supervisors : Hervé Quénol ( Université Rennes 2, France),

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND INFLUENCE OF MEDITERRANEAN SEA ON VITICULTURE SITE VALENCIA DO. Speaker: Igor Sirnik Supervisors : Hervé Quénol ( Université Rennes 2, France), Miguel Ángel Jiménez-Bello ( Universidad Politécnica de Valencia) and

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Speaker: Igor Sirnik Supervisors : Hervé Quénol ( Université Rennes 2, France),

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  1. SPATIAL-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND INFLUENCE OF MEDITERRANEAN SEA ON VITICULTURE SITE VALENCIA DO Speaker: Igor Sirnik Supervisors: HervéQuénol (Université Rennes 2, France), Miguel Ángel Jiménez-Bello (UniversidadPolitécnica de Valencia) and Juan Manzano (UniversidadPolitécnica de Valencia) Valencia, 24.10.2016

  2. Thefacts • France: duringthe last 25 years, theharvest time movedfrom late October to early September. • Bythe 2050 bytheworstcasescenario, the 85% decrease in wineproduction in Bordeaux, Rhone, and Toscanyregion. • SouthAfrica – bythe 2050, expected 55% descrease in wineproduction. • Englishwine is back! 400 commercialwineayards, sparklingwines are beatingtheFrenchrivals. Source: Theguardian

  3. Context The climate change has an impact on viticulture in function of: • Evolution of vine growing and its characteristics. • Evolution differs according to a different location of regions in accordance with local topographical characteristics. • Necessity of adaptation.

  4. Methodology • Analyse of historical meteorological data retrieved from weather stations. • Data retrieved: daily temperature (min, max, mean) and daily precipitation. • Bioclimatic indexes analysis. • Confrontation of historical data to modelized data in function of climate change (RCP scenarios) for historical and future period. • Uncertainty, data analysis, critical approach to data analysis;

  5. Valencia DO Source: IVIA, 2016

  6. Teruel Location of weather stations on study site Valencia DO, Spain with available data Castellon Llíria Study site Valencia DO Cerrito Valencia airport Cheste Benifaio Albacete

  7. Topographic profiles: meteorological stations toward Mediterranean sea Valencia airport Valencia airport Albacete Albacete

  8. Progressof minimum andmaximumtemperature

  9. Progress of mean temperature for study period 1965-2013 +1.6°C +2.2°C

  10. HUGLIN index WINKLER index k= 1.02

  11. Progress of bioclimatic indexes 1965-2013 +388.08 +470.55 Winkler progress Huglin progress

  12. Analysis of average temperature and average bioclimatic indexes increase during 1965-2013

  13. Precipitation in seasons – Valencia airport Valencia_airport

  14. Valencia airport • The rise of temperature trend on all weather stations in the study period • The highest increase (2.17°C) was detected on weather stations Albacete weather station • The average rise of temperature at Valencia site: +1.88°C • The increase of Huglin and Winkler index at all weather stations • Precipitation decrease was noticed especially in fall season Albacete

  15. Temperature analysis in Valencia study site: observedandmodeled data • Used fourstationsforanalysis • Historical data: 1963-2013 • Euro-Cordex data CMIP5, rcp8.5: 1985-2100 • Resolution: 0,11°

  16. Temperature progress in Valencia DO: observation and simulation (rcp8.5) [°C] +4.9°C +1.7°C +4.5°C +2.0°C

  17. [°C] Minimum temperature progress – observations and simulation (rcp8.5) detail in Valencia DO (1985 – 2013) [°C]

  18. Valencia DO average temperature progress

  19. Limitations of comparison between observed and modelized data • Uncertainties linked to the climate models = it is impossible to validate future of climate data. • Climate model is a simplified representation of a climate system. • Spatial resolution of the climate models is far higher in comparison to observed data on meteorological stations (point Vs. 0,11 degree net).

  20. Conclusion • Temperature andbioclimaticindexesincrease in the last fivedecades, decreaseofprecipitation. • Simulated rcp8.5 scenarios – significantincreaseoftemperatures. • Future steps: Precipitationanalysissimulation 1985 – 2100, rcp4.5 scenario; • Usageofallavailableweatherstationsforfurtherclimatechangeanalysis. • The outcome of this research will be beneficiaryforunderstandinglocalclimateconditions. • Possibleadaptationscenarios: othervarieties, changingfertilizers, changinglocation, irrigation,.. • Comparativeanalysiswith a secondviticulture site: Brda wineregion in Slovenia.

  21. Thank you all for your attention Contact: igsir@topo.upv.es

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