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CVRD Quarterly Earnings and Outlook: Navigating Uncertainties in the Global Economy

This presentation highlights CVRD's solid performance amidst a challenging global economy, discusses the impact of currency volatility on earnings, and provides an outlook on iron ore prospects and logistics projects.

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CVRD Quarterly Earnings and Outlook: Navigating Uncertainties in the Global Economy

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  1. Disclaimer ”This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements, and CVRD cannot give assurance that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors: relating to the Brazilian economy and securities markets, which exhibit volatility and can be adversely affected by developments in other countries; relating to the iron ore business and its dependence on the global steel industry, which is cyclical in nature; and relating to the highly competitive industries in which CVRD operates. For additional information on factors that could cause CVRD’s actual results to differ from expectations reflected in forward-looking statements, please see CVRD’s reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”

  2. Agenda • Highlights • Outlook • The quest for transparency

  3. Highlights • A solid performance in a dysfunctional global economy - Net earnings: US$ 354 million, EBITDA: US$ 442 million. • Weather problems reduced iron ore shipments in 1Q03 versus 4Q02. • However, we are operating at full capacity and buying above average volumes of iron ore from third parties to meet customers demand. • Good performance of alumina, manganese & ferro alloys, kaolin and logistics services sales. • Potash sales growth limited by capacity. • Decreasing gold sales due to reserves depletion. • Growth projects on schedule.

  4. Quarterly earnings volatility influenced by currency volatility

  5. A new methodology to estimate EBITDA figures. US$ million 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 Operating income 295 334 459 341 363 Depreciation, Amortization and Depletion 66 61 44 43 43 Dividends Received 25 30 17 19 36 Asset Impairment 11 - - 35 - Adjustment for non-recurring items - - - - - EBITDA - New methodology 397 425 520 438 442 EBITDA - Previous methodology 444 456 483 406 -

  6. Iron ore and pellet shipments constrained by mining and logistics capacity million tons 44.0 42.3 42.5 41.1 38.3 38.0 38.0 36.7 34.4

  7. Asset integration, new services and contracts to manage clients logistics are boosting CVRD sales growth. CVRD Railroads - General Cargo Transportation million ntk 6,137 5,908 5,856 5,669 5,622 5,505 5,207 5,233 4,961

  8. Railroad productivity is improving and reliability is the best in the world. Vitória a Minas Railroadmillion ntk per active loco per day Carajás RailroadWorld record in MKBF - mean kilometers between failure - 10 million km

  9. A challenging business environment Global GDP growth is below its long term trend for the third consecutive year and the industrial world is flirting with deflation. % 3.6 Source: IMF and MSDW Research

  10. A challenging business environment • China is the sunspot in a gloomy world economy and it is where demand for iron ore exploded. • SARS is likely to cause slower GDP growth in 2Q03/3Q03. However, we do not expect the Chinese economy to stall. • Up to now there are no signs of deceleration in iron ore demand growth.

  11. CVRD and the Brazilian Real (BRL) • The appreciation of the BRL has a limited negative impact on CVRD USD cash flow. Iron ore prices have a more powerful effect. • In the current environment the flipside of a stronger BRL is a lower capital cost.

  12. Freight behavior signals a global excess demand for iron ore. Brazil-Japan and Australia-Japan freight rates differential. iron ore price increase 2-digit iron ore price increase iron ore price increase 2-digit iron ore price decrease Source: Clarksons

  13. Iron ore prospects • We estimate global seaborne demand for iron ore to be 510 million tons in 2003. It is unlikely to be met by suppliers. • We believe that the iron ore shortage will remain throughout 2003/2004.

  14. Iron ore prospects • We expect a modest increase in CVRD shipments in 2003/2004 due to capacity constraints in mining and logistics. • Purchases of iron ore from third parties will continue and are likely to peak in 2004. • Iron ore purchases are needed to meet commitments. They put pressure on margins but contribute to marginal increases in ROIC. • Purchases play the role of a “swing producer”.

  15. Iron ore prospects • We are investing in additional mining capacity and elimination of logistics bottlenecks. • Mining projects: • Southern System - Fabrica Nova, Brucutu. • Northern System - Carajás N5. • Logistics projects: • Ponta da Madeira maritime terminal - Pier III. • Tubarão Port.

  16. Debottlenecking iron ore logistics • Ponta da Madeira maritime terminal - Pier III is scheduled to start up in 1Q04.

  17. Alumina prices surged and Alunorte stage 3 is allowing CVRD to benefit from the new price scenario. Source: CRU

  18. Alumina prices are expected to stay high for the next 18 months. Alumina Market Surplus or (Deficit) Sources: CRU - January 2003

  19. There is excess supply of aluminum and large inventories. However, high alumina prices and power shortages are likely to constrain supply and to mitigate downward price pressure. Aluminum Market Surplus or (Deficit) Sources: CRU - January 2003

  20. Logistics services • An all time high grain crop and new contracts brighten the short term outlook. • The acquisition of new locos and wagons will allow us to realize market opportunities.

  21. The quest for transparency • Investment in ERP System. • Implementation of Hyperion. • Quarterly financial statements reviewed by independent accountants. • New methodology to compute EBITDA (non-GAAP). • Changes in internal process. • Compliance with regulation G.

  22. CVRD - The Best of Brazil www.cvrd.com.br e-mail: rio@cvrd.com.br

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