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Landscape Exploration and The Influence of Beliefs

Landscape Exploration and The Influence of Beliefs. Jason Carver and Kevin Matulef. Motivation. Recall “addiction model”. Motivation. Recall “addiction model” Red button initially has shorter delay. Motivation. Recall “addiction model” Red button initially has shorter delay

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Landscape Exploration and The Influence of Beliefs

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  1. Landscape ExplorationandThe Influence of Beliefs Jason Carver and Kevin Matulef

  2. Motivation • Recall “addiction model”

  3. Motivation • Recall “addiction model” • Red button initially has shorter delay

  4. Motivation • Recall “addiction model” • Red button initially has shorter delay • Green button initially has longer delay

  5. Motivation • Recall “addiction model” • Red button initially has shorter delay • Green button initially has longer delay • But red button slows everything down…

  6. Motivation • Recall “addiction model” • Red button initially has shorter delay • Green button initially has longer delay • But red button slows everything down… Why do people press the red button?

  7. Motivation • Recall “addiction model” • Red button initially has shorter delay • Green button initially has longer delay • But red button slows everything down… Why do people press the red button? Because it appears to be the better one…

  8. Questions • To what extent are people willing to explore actions that appear suboptimal? • Do people get stuck in “local maxima?” • How are the answers to the above influenced by people’s beliefs?

  9. Payoff Landscapes local max Potential Payoffs

  10. The Experiment Total points: 3 Moves remaining: 10

  11. The Experiment Total points: 5 Moves remaining: 9

  12. The Experiment Total points: 8 Moves remaining: 8

  13. The Experiment The Experiment Total points: 12 Moves remaining: 7

  14. The Experiment The Experiment Total points: 17 Moves remaining: 6

  15. The Experiment The Experiment Total points: 20 Moves remaining: 5

  16. The Experiment The Experiment Total points: 25 Moves remaining: 4

  17. Results • Group A: control Start Peak

  18. Results • Group A: control Start Peak

  19. Results • Group A: control • Group B: subjects told max value on board Start Peak Start Peak

  20. Results • Group A: control • Group B: subjects told max value on board Start Peak Start Peak

  21. Modeling • Reinforcement model • Reinforcement of actions? • Reinforcement of destinations?

  22. Modeling • Reinforcement model • Reinforcement of actions? • Reinforcement of destinations? • No obvious place in reinforcement model for the “belief” about where fortune lies. • Can it be incorporated in a natural way?

  23. Conclusion • Adventurousness in exploratory situations very contingent upon beliefs • Simple “reinforcement” model may be insufficient to explain human behavior in such situations.

  24. Further Questions • Hundreds of variations: • “Patterned” landscapes? • Probabilistic rewards? • Continuous landscapes? • 2 dimensions? 3 dimensions? • Connections with risk aversion? • Connections with “belief learning?”

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