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MBA SIM Fund 2014-2015 MBA Presentation – May 1, 2015. James Lyle. Aishwarya Srinivasan. Nic Kostman. Noel Hill. Eugene Lee. Jeremy Mortensen. Tyler Blue. Rob Bayless. Agenda. Dividend Premium Strategy Review Strategy Operations Operational Challenges Performance Strategy Accuracy
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MBA SIM Fund 2014-2015 MBA Presentation – May 1, 2015
James Lyle Aishwarya Srinivasan Nic Kostman Noel Hill Eugene Lee Jeremy Mortensen Tyler Blue Rob Bayless
Agenda • Dividend Premium Strategy Review • Strategy Operations • Operational Challenges • Performance • Strategy Accuracy • Returns • Attributions • REITs • Strategy Review • Performance
SIM Fund Objectives • Apply range of course principles to fund management • Utilize resources to maximize learning • Manage scope • Portfolio Model • 85% - Quantitative Strategy (core) • 15% - REITs (diversification)
Dividend Stock Pricing Anomaly • Why does it exist? • Mutual fund demand to pass through dividends (Harris, Hartzmark, and Solomon 2014) • Cash guarantee
Dividend Stock Pricing Anomaly • “…Companies have positive abnormal returns in months when they are predicted to issue a dividend.” • (Hartzmark & Solomon 2012) Div Declared Div-Ex Sell (Div-Ex) Buy (Div Declared -1)
Exclusionary Rules • Traded in the Russell 1000 Index • Domiciled in the US • Market Cap over $10 billion • Excluded sectors: Insurance, Banks, Utilities, REIT • Quarterly Dividends over the past year • Universe: 191 securities • Cap holdings at a maximum of 80
Weekly trade schedule Old New
Operational Challenges • Reconciliation • Sensibility Checks • Solutions • Weekly process rotating reconciliation responsibilities. • Differences in opinion of what is “sensible,” • Established foundation rules such as industry momentum, insider trading, negligent operations, but some decision making was on a case-by-case basis.
Cash Management • Solutions • Overweighting • Initial purchase • Post–purchase overweighting prioritized based on closest forecasted declaration date. • Indexing • Insufficient Cash • Prioritized purchases based on closest forecasted ex-date
Strategy Accuracy • 19.6 days of average lead time in purchasing vs. actual announcement date • 0.4% of planned purchases missed announcement date (1 of 226) • 25% of Sell transactions on Ex-date vs. post-Ex. • Average Holding Period: 34.5 Days • Std Dev = 16 days • Range: 7 to 99 days • Actual vs. Hartzmark and Solomon
Returns vs. S&P500 11/17/14 - 4/17/15 • Portfolio • Total Return +4.02% • Dividend Strategy Return +4.25% • Tracking Error (Annualized) 4.59% • Std. Deviation (Annualized) 11.13% • Sharpe Ratio 0.52 • S&P500 • +2.59% • 13.37% • 0.56
Dividend Yield • Dividend Yield Return Contribution: • 5.16%
Strategy Tapering • Back to the Russell 3000 • Dividend run-up period eventually falls outside of our time horizon • Fiduciary Responsibility
REITs Strategy
REITs – Overall strategy • Approximately 15% of total portfolio • Primary purpose (for us) was diversification • Focused on ETFs with low expense ratios, high trading volumes, and high assets under management • Also filtered out REIT ETFs from non-reputable companies
REIT Returns • Total Portfolio: 8.52% • Annualized: 20.73% • Benchmarks:
SIM Fund Learning Points • Implementation is easier said than done • Cash management is an everyday task • Effective reconciliation requires a solid process design • Dividends yields have surprising magnitudes that look great at first
Thank you Questions?
Distribution of projected dividend declaration dates # of securities Trading week (week 1 = 11/20/2014)