Russia’s Arctic Development Plan

1. Russia’s Arctic Development Plan • Strategy to 2020 The Road to NuukCSIS-WWF April 20, 2011 Caitlyn AntrimRule of Law Committee for the Oceanscaitlyn@oceanlaw.org

2. Primary Arctic Interests • Interests Defined by RF Security Council in 2008 • Primary Interests: • Resource base for socio-economic development • Zone of Peace and Cooperation • Conservation of unique Arctic ecosystems • Use of Northern Sea Route as integrated transport corridor in theRussian Arctic

3. Northward Bounds of the Russian Arctic

4. Southward Boundaries

5. Russia’s Arctic Policy Makers • President and Prime Minister • Security Council of the Russian Federation(Secretary: Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev) • Maritime Collegium (Chair: Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov; Co-Chairs: Heads of Navy, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Transportation) • Council for the Study of Productive Forces (Ministry of Development and the Russian Academy of Sciences)

6. Elements of Russian Arctic Policy • Ocean/Maritime Policy • Transportation Policy • Shipping Industry Policy • Information and Communication Policy • Federal and Regional Development Policy • Federal District Policies

7. SWOT Analysis(as seen by Russia’s analysts) • Weaknesses • Single industry structures; Uneven resource distribution • Lack of policy attention • Raw material focus; limited infrastructure • Low productivity • Negative demographics • Lack of preparedness for climate change at local level • Dominance of institutional approach • High investor risk • Strengths • Resource Base • Human Capital • Industrial Potential • Low Cost of labor • Geographic Position • Opportunities for economic development

8. SWOT Analysis(as seen by Russia’s analysts) • Threats • Asymmetry and imbalances between Arctic areas • Outflow of skilled personnel • Risk of degradation and de-industrialization • Vulnerability of strategic economic sectors • Formation of power centers in border regions of neighboring states • Possible negative impacts of global climate change • Potential conflict of development interests • Negative impact of global financial and economic crises • Opportunities • Diversification • Inward migration of skilled workers • Networking of priority development areas • Foreign investment, technology and labor opportunities • Strengthening of export specialization • Renewable energy development within Arctic Zone • Transition to integrated, sustainable socio-economic growth • Opportunities for wide range of interagency, interregional and international projects

9. Primary Efforts to 2020 • Definition and Understanding of the Russian Arctic • Transportation and Port Infrastructure • Development of Arctic Resources • Intellectual Capital: Innovation, Information Infrastructure, Education and Knowledge Management • Development of Human Capital in the North

10. Major Projects and Spatial Development • Murmansk Multi-modal Port • Gas and Oil in Barents and Kara Sea • Development of Northern Sea Route (physical and electronic) • Non-Conventional Arctic Energy Sources • Information Systems and Knowledge Infrastructure

11. Russian Arctic Strategy, the Short Version: • Knowledge, Presence, Growth • A new interpretation of Russian sovereignty in the Arctic: an intellectual presence is more important than military • Continuous build-up and concentration of new knowledge about natural-resource potential, the dynamics of natural conditions • Research presence, strengthening the elements of innovation infrastructure • Innovative in the interests of national security, environmental sustainability, conservation of unique ecosystems in the Arctic and the viability of local communities.