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Hi-Cap Magazine Distribution in California

Hi-Cap Magazine Distribution in California. Team CarRamrod. Disclaimer. The following is a hypothetical scenario. The group members do not engage in, nor condone engaging in the trade of banned products. CA Law.

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Hi-Cap Magazine Distribution in California

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  1. Hi-Cap Magazine Distribution in California Team CarRamrod

  2. Disclaimer • The following is a hypothetical scenario. The group members do not engage in, nor condone engaging in the trade of banned products.

  3. CA Law • 12020. (a) Any person in this state who does any of the following is punishable by imprisonment in a county jail not exceeding one year or in the state prison:(2) Commencing January 1, 2000, manufactures or causes to bemanufactured, imports into the state, keeps for sale, or offers orexposes for sale, or who gives, or lends, any large-capacitymagazine....(c) (25) As used in this section, "large-capacity magazine" means anyammunition feeding device with the capacity to accept more than 10rounds, but shall not be construed to include any of the following:(A) A feeding device that has been permanently altered so that itcannot accommodate more than 10 rounds.(B) A .22 caliber tube ammunition feeding device.(C) A tubular magazine that is contained in a lever- action firearm.

  4. Motivation • Law largely unenforceable • No outright prohibition of possession • No way to prove if magazine manufactured after 2000 • Bad guys have them • Not illegal in most other states • Hard to control flow into CA • So should you • Home invasions • Civil Unrest

  5. LA Riots 1992: Koreatown • 45% of all property damage • 5 of 53 deaths • Police nowhere to be seen • Store-owners banded together on rooftops • Defended themselves against much larger crowds using “Assault Weapons” and High-Capacity Magazines

  6. Concept • Procure High-Capacity magazines from another state • Distribute by airplane, flying out of Watsonville Municipal Airport • Distribute to large cities (Pop > 150,000) via small airports

  7. The Market

  8. Assumptions/Constraints (General) • Cities • California cities with populations over 150k are considered • Population drives largest profit with widest distribution • 36 (of 482) cities meet population limit and are analyzed • Only 20 cities will be supplied • Airports • Only airports considered small/medium by the FAA are considered • Only airports within 50 miles of each city are considered • 550 out of 1007 total California airports are analyzed • Network • Start Node: Watsonville; End Node: Market • 2305 total arcs (Watsonville->Airport->City->Market) • 588 total nodes (Watsonville->Airport->City->Market)

  9. Assumptions/Constraints (Resources) • Season lasts 20 workdays (1 month, per year) • Cities will be supplied only once per season • Each airport will supply only 1 city • AR-15 high-capacity magazines • 7.5”x2.75”x1”, .25 lbs • 1 airplane will be used (Cessna Super CargoMaster) • 452 cubic feet of storage; (4500 lbs/.25 lbs) = 18,000 Magazines (180 cases) • $2.29/nm fuel cost • 871 nm range • Supplier (out of State) • Able to supply in excess of the air transport constraint (20*180=3600 cases).

  10. Assumptions/Constraints (Formulation) • Demand (Capacity): • (.0525*Population)/100 • Range: 79 - 1991 • 21% of CA population own firearms* • 21% used in model (conservative) • 50% of gun-owners don’t support high-capacity magazine ban** • 25% used in model (conservative) • Probability (of capture, relatively): • ((Distance/50)*1.24)*(CrimeRate*12) • Ranges: (Distance: .1 - 50), (CrimeRate: .0146 - .0667) • Highest relative probability: 50 miles from Oakland: 97% • Not a function of population • Price (Cost): • log(population(.0525)/1000)*$30 • $30: Upper-end price of name-brand magazine in legal state • Range($26.49 - $68.97)

  11. The Model Market Watsonville -3600 3600

  12. Optimizing • Parameters: • Probability : log (1-Pij) • Revenue : Yij * Cij • Method Of Optimization: • Probability as a Constraint • Probability in Objective Function

  13. Under The Hood • Constraint: MaxProb.. sum((i,j), log(1-arcdata(i,j, 'Probb'))*P(i,j)) =g= log(.90) ; • Objective Function: OBJECTIVE.. Zprimal =e= SUM(arcs(i,j),(arcdata(i,j,'Cost') *Y(i,j) )) + (Weight)*probab + nC/2*SUM(j,UnsatisfiedDemand(j)) ;

  14. Results (.90) • Probability = 0.90 • Revenue from LosxAngeles -> is 1241513.32 • Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96 • Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86 • Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06 • Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88 • Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11 • Revenue from Oakland -> is 708495.87 • Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15 • Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03 • Revenue from SantaxAna -> is 628019.85 • Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76 • Revenue from Stockton -> is 543963.72 • Revenue from ChulaxVista -> is 425241.44 • Revenue from Fremont -> is 353053.23 • Revenue from Irvine -> is 348738.48 • Revenue from SanxBernardi -> is 343933.06 • Revenue from Modesto -> is 322469.19 • Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30 • Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88 • Revenue from Glendale -> is 300847.34 • SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -631.00 • SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 631.00 • total Revenue = 11922729.51

  15. Results (.70) • Probability = 0.70 • Revenue from LosxAngeles -> is 1241513.32 • Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96 • Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86 • Revenue from SanxFrancisc -> is 878084.25 • Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06 • Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88 • Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11 • Revenue from Oakland -> is 708495.87 • Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15 • Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03 • Revenue from SantaxAna -> is 628019.85 • Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76 • Revenue from Stockton -> is 543963.72 • Revenue from ChulaxVista -> is 425241.44 • Revenue from Fremont -> is 353053.23 • Revenue from Irvine -> is 348738.48 • Revenue from SanxBernardi -> is 343933.06 • Revenue from Modesto -> is 322469.19 • Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30 • Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88 • SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -551.00 • SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 551.00 • total Revenue = 12499966.42

  16. Results (.96) • Probability = 0.96 • Revenue from SanxDiego -> is 991746.96 • Revenue from SanxJose -> is 915852.86 • Revenue from Fresno -> is 763814.06 • Revenue from Sacramento -> is 750059.88 • Revenue from LongxBeach -> is 747923.11 • Revenue from Bakersfield -> is 680990.15 • Revenue from Anaheim -> is 658332.03 • Revenue from Riverside -> is 573758.76 • Revenue from Oxnard -> is 314130.30 • Revenue from Fontana -> is 309845.88 • Revenue from Oceanside -> is 246148.93 • Revenue from ElkxGrove -> is 217174.39 • Revenue from Corona -> is 214027.63 • Revenue from Torrance -> is 201286.88 • SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Watsonvillex is -1658.00 • SupplyDemand that could not be moved on node Market is 1658.00 • total Revenue = 7585091.84

  17. Results

  18. Conclusion • Results: • Market changed with different threshold values for Probability of capture. • What could we have done better given more time? • More realistic model • No shipping by air from Watsonville to San Jose, etc. • Capability to ship to more than 20 cities (longer contract) • More realistic constraints • Better Probability Function • Better Demand Function

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