How did this major transformation happen? Why did population grow rapidly?

2. This is one of the most common graphs we see today; it depicts world population growth over the past 1000 years; it could go back 200,000 and not look much different.

3. Two major Green House Gasses, carbon dioxide and methane, have risen along with population. This looks like population is causing global warming…..BUT

4. If we look at a larger picture, it is clear that population growth was accompanied by major changes in energy technology and in social organization, that is by the rise of urban industrial society. Thus….

5. How did this major transformation happen? Why did population grow rapidly? Did the change occur at the same time in all part of the world? Will population continue to grow? What are some of the major implications for current problems? To address these questions we must first turn to a universal pattern of the modern world: The Demographic Transition This is the transition from high to low birth and death rates. There have been TWO major demographic transitions: Past and Present

7. The past “epidemiological transition” moved slowly from high, variable, death rates and infectious diseases to low, stable, death rates and degenerative diseases. Here is Sweden’s crude death rate from 1750 to 2000

8. Today, death rates can be reduced more rapidly. China’s CDR fell more in 40 years than Sweden’s did in 200 years

9. A more telling figure is the fall in the Infant Mortality Rate. China’s IMR fell in 40 years as much as Sweden’s fell in 200 years

10. There are two major reasons for the increased speed of the new transitions: New medical technology to attack infectious diseases; New Global organizations to spread that technology rapidly. The UN World Health Organization has played a major role here. This has brought new hope for better health to millions of the world’s population. The same holds for the fertility transition, with another twist

11. Let me remind you of Sweden’s Birth and Death Rates, its demographic transition.

12. China’s birth rate fell as much in 40 years as Sweden’s fell in 200 years.

13. Here is another picture, showing how rapidly fertility can decline in the modern world.

14. Again the reason for the greater speed of change lies in a new medical technology: the vast array of modern contraceptives available since about 1965. There was also a major policy change: the ANTINATALIST POLICY REVOLUTION, led by India, starting in 1952. Good family planning programs speed the transition and improve health. In addition, the United Nations, especially the UN Population Fund, helped move that new technology throughout the world rapidly. UNFPA has supported family planning programs throughout the world The result has been a vast improvement in reproductive health, especially in the health of poor women and children

15. Fertility reduction improves health in a number of ways:

16. Fertility reduction also reduces maternal mortality

17. Babies tending babies: the picture of high fertility. Poor children beside the Irrawaddy in Mandalay, Burma

18. Successful family planning. A young Thai mother with her daughter, Nong Khai, Thailand

19. Family planning programs have been described as some of the most cost-effective development and health programs we have. But there is a more important point to be made. Successful family planning programs provide immediate improvements in the health of women and children. These are usually the people who benefit last and least from other types of development programs. In effect, they provide health improvements to those who usually get them last. But there is another problem as well…..

20. Rapid population growth: reduces health and welfare AND produces a rapidly growing young population.

21. Young males (15-19 years old) are a highly energetic, inexperienced, and volatile population. They can be led to acts of heroism, making them attractive to infantry sergeants; They can be led to acts of great altruism; And they can also be led to acts of terrible violence, as we saw, for example, in the Tutsi-Hutu genocide Much depends on the leadership and social infrastructure that gives them some hope for the future. But demographics also show their numbers will increase rapidly.

22. One example: reduced fertility means fewer young males

23. The growth of young males will be greatest in those regions least able to provide them with schools, jobs, or hope.

24. Much depends on what governments are willing and able to do. Where health and education are given high priority, the future can look very promising. As in Thailand…..

25. Young men are all in schools, sports and scouts, with reasonable chances for jobs. And their numbers are declining! There were 3.1 million in 1985 and 2.8 million in 2000.

26. In Pakistan the scenario if far less hopeful. Government expenditures are heavily weighted to the military. Education and health receive far lower priorities.

27. There is also extensive female seclusion.

28. The Pakistani government is currently unable to provide good educational and health services to its population. People have given up on government; private services of all kinds are growing rapidly. More seriously…. There are currently some 8 million young males in Pakistan. Their numbers will certainly grow to about 12 million over the next 20 years. With no schools or jobs for most, where will they go? What will they do? The potential for instability within Pakistan, between Pakistan and India (two nuclear powers), and in the rest of South Asia is substantial.

29. This observation has special relevance today Islam and religious terrorism today: “Moderate Islamic scholars say that deliberate pursuit of death is proscribed by Islamic law. But in planning a holy war, the theological point carries little weight against the advantage that men like Osama bin Laden and Sheik Yassin see in martyrdom. For them, the great ally is the anger and despair of those they recruit to their cause, commonly young men raised in poverty, and in the Palestinians’ case, in the destitution and institutionalized anger of refugee camps. In Afghanistan, Yemen or Gaza [GDN or Pakistan], the hard fact is that many of those who ready themselves to die have little on earth to cherish.” John F. Burns: “The Promise of Paradise That Slays Peace,” NYT, Sunday, April 1, 2001. See also Bruce Hoffman, 1998, Inside Terrorism, New York: Columbia University Press.

30. There is a final personal observation to be made from this analysis concerning the currently highly charged issue of abortion. Induced abortion can easily be described as a tragedy; but also as a preventable tragedy. Induced abortions can be easily reduced or eliminated by the reduction of unwanted pregnancies. These can be reduced or eliminated by good family planing programs. The great tragedy today is that the current anti-abortion forces as also anti-family planning. Why are those forces opposed to both abortion and family planning. Could it be that they are basically opposed to women’s capacity to choose fertility and child birth?

31. Sources There is a mountain of writing on publication. There are also some excellent websites on both population and population-environment issues. Here are four very useful websites: www.unfpa.org. This is the UN Population program source, wit excellent world wide discussions. www.usaid.gov. This is the UN foreign aid organization website with information about all of our foreign assistance, including population. www.prb.org. This is the Population Reference Bureau, one of the leading NGOs in population. It provides good basic data as well as fine teaching materials. www.unaids.org. This is the United Nations website for AIDS. It has fine basic data and extensive discussions with much up to date material.\