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Voice and video, content and connectivity: Ancient myths and current reality

Voice and video, content and connectivity: Ancient myths and current reality. Andrew Odlyzko Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko. Current reality:. Broadband wireline Internet vs Narrowband mobile voice 2x users >2x revenues

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Voice and video, content and connectivity: Ancient myths and current reality

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  1. Voice and video, content and connectivity: Ancient myths and current reality Andrew Odlyzko Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko

  2. Current reality: • Broadband wireline Internet vs Narrowband mobile voice • 2x users • >2x revenues • Lessons for the future: #1 don't neglect voice #2 don't neglect voice #3 don't neglect voice

  3. Human communication: One picture is worth a thousand words

  4. Human communication: One picture is worth a thousand words, provided one uses another thousand words to justify the picture. Harold Stark, 1970

  5. Voice and video: • Relative unimportance of video for human communication: • see a variety of papers in human-computer interface areas (for example those of Angela Sasse) • or consider market experiences of videophone trials • On the other hand: Wideband speech will be the major differentiation and attraction of third-generation network services in both the circuit and packet switched domain. Increased audio bandwidth introduces a significant leap in perceived quality of service compared to currently utilized narrowband telephony in second-generation mobile communications and the PSTN. IEEE Communications Magazine, May 2006 special issue on "Wideband speech coding standards and wireless services"

  6. Opportunities in voice: • Higher quality • Differential quality • Toll-free calling • …

  7. Flat rates as a way to stimulate usage:

  8. Almost Flat rates : U.S. cell phone usage, minutes per day around June of each year.

  9. Overwhelming need for flexibility in technology and business plans: The goals of the advertising business model do not always correspond to providing quality search to users. ... we expect that advertising funded search engines will be inherently biased towards the advertisers and away from the needs of the consumers. ... But we believe the issue of advertising causes enough mixed incentives that it is crucial to have a competitive search engine that is transparent and in the academic realm.

  10. Overwhelming need for flexibility in technology and business plans: The goals of the advertising business model do not always correspond to providing quality search to users. ... we expect that advertising funded search engines will be inherently biased towards the advertisers and away from the needs of the consumers. ... But we believe the issue of advertising causes enough mixed incentives that it is crucial to have a competitive search engine that is transparent and in the academic realm. - Sergey Brin and Larry Page, 1998

  11. Content is not king: • Google: a few hundred million Euros  100 billion Euros • 3G auctions in 2000: 100 billion Euros  a small fraction

  12. Further data, discussions, and speculations in papers and presentation decks at: http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko

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