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Real Estate Market Trends

Real Estate Market Trends. 2010 to 2011. The Great Recession is Over But We Don’t Feel Better. Source: University of Michigan. Why Don’t we Feel Better? 14 million Unemployed. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Distressed Property Sales Still High.

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Real Estate Market Trends

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  1. Real Estate Market Trends 2010 to 2011

  2. The Great Recession is OverBut We Don’t Feel Better Source: University of Michigan

  3. Why Don’t we Feel Better?14 million Unemployed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  4. Distressed Property Sales Still High Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

  5. Price Declines Typical Across the State Source: Virginia Association of REALTORS®

  6. Central Virginia Regional MLSSingle Family Residential Market Year Units Sold Avg List Price Avg Sold Price 2004: 18,944 $208,186 $206,720 2005: 20,043 $241,420 $240,041 2006: 18,543 $268,591 $265,809 2007: 15,794 $280,034 $274,776 2008: 11,005 $277,171 $268,008 2009: 11,316 $268,806 $232,830 2010: 10,750 $245,388 $228,056 2011 (YTD – September 30, 2011): 8,371 $244,638$218,119

  7. A Metro Richmond ComparisonSingle Family Residential Market - 2011 Area Units Sold Avg LP Avg SP (%Chng) Chesterfield2,518$244,619$227,404 (-5.31%) Hanover:665$291,098$256,129 (-4.50%) Henrico: 1,978$245,735$231,412 (-8.63%) Richmond:1,396$203,144$202,066 (-0.83%) 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 (%Chng) compared to same period 2010 Data Collected October 20, 2011

  8. What’s Selling… …in 2011? Area (% Sold under): $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 Chesterfield52.78%78.16%90.59% Hanover:36.98%71.11%91.32% Henrico: 55.46%77.40%87.56% Richmond:62.89%80.23%88.19% CVR MLS Region:57.45%79.69%89.91% Cumulative 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 Data Collected October 20, 2011

  9. Residential Condominium Market Changes:2010-2011 - YTD CVR MLS Region: Sold Units YTD: +4.36% Avg Sold Price YTD: +4.00% • Chesterfield: • Sold Units YTD: +8.37% Avg Sold Price YTD: -13.74% Henrico: Sold Units YTD: +5.47% Avg Sold Price YTD: -0.50% Richmond City: Sold Units YTD: -12.75% Avg Sold Price YTD: -3.86% • Hanover:(Limited # units) • Sold Units YTD: +80%(30 units to 54 units) • AvgSold Price YTD: +0.71% 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 (%Chng) compared to same period 2010 Data Collected October 21, 2011

  10. County of Chesterfield – City of Richmond October 2010 through September 2011 R E Stats Inc. - *Active Inventory as of October 25, 2011 Data Collected October 25, 2011 Inventory and Absorption Single-Family Residential

  11. County of Henrico – County of Hanover October 2010 through September 2011 R E Stats Inc. - *Active Inventory as of October 25, 2011 Data Collected October 25, 2011 Inventory and Absorption Single-Family Residential

  12. 2010-2011:YTDThe Direction We’re Heading CVR MLS Region – Single Family Thru Thru 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter Pending Units -5.122% +0.971% +2.30% Sold Units +11.789% -4.358% +3.40% Average Sold Price -8.33% -5.13% -4.80% 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 (%Chng) compared to same period 2010

  13. Economic OutlookTomorrow will Look A lot Like Today • Paying down debt takes time • No quick fix • Recoveries after financial crises take much longer • Consumers are saving more, but that’s not good in the short-run • Firms reluctant to hire • No need for more workers • Can’t find workers with the right skills • In the next 12-24 months, expect • Moderate growth and a stubbornly high unemployment rates • Volatile financial markets • Little threat of inflation or rising interest rates

  14. The Forecast Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® October 2011 Forecast

  15. The Future…Continued Uncertainty • Shadow Inventory… How Much is Still Out There? • When Will Prices Hit Bottom and Bounce? • What’s Up in Washington? • Too tight financing requirements, especially for Condo Market, Investors. • GSE Reform. • MID… Eliminated or Revised come 2013. • QRM… The End for 30 Year Mortgages? • Jobs, Jobs, Jobs… and Consumer Confidence. • Recovery… It Needs to FEEL Like Recovery.

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