Adviser & Head Climate Change Programme , Department of Science & Technology

1. Trend and Impact of Natural Calamities in Changing Climate over India Akhilesh Gupta Adviser & Head Climate Change Programme, Department of Science & Technology Email: akhilesh.g@nic.in

2. Presentation Outline • Observed Trend in the frequency of extreme weather events over the globe and India • Extreme Weather Events and their linkage with CC- Are freak events linked to CC? • How can we reduce the impact of Extreme Weather Events in the Changing Climate? • Summary

3. Observed Global Trend in the frequency of Extreme Weather events and Sea Level Rise

4. Flood Storm Earthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire) Annual Frequency of Natural Disasters 1950 – 2005

5. Recent Increasing Trends in Frequency of Natural Hazards Floods Windstorms Extreme Heat Events Drought

6. Changes in Sea Level since 1850 and Projection(IPCC 4thAR, WGI, Paris, 5.2.2007) Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr

7. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 16% of its land area with a sea level rise of 1.5 m

8. Sea-Water Inundation Example: Maldives Area: 115 square miles Population: 143,000 Highest point: 20 ft above sea level Climate Change induced Sea Level Rise may inundate some of the islands of Maldives

9. Observed Trend in the frequency of Extreme Weather events and Sea Level Rise over India

10. Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Low & Moderate events Heavy events (>10cm) V. Heavy events (>15cm) Goswami et al., Science, Dec., 2006

11. Number of Flash Flood Events in India (1980-2006) Increasing Trend in Flash Flood Events during past 25 years

12. Total Number of Flood Events in India (1980-2006) Decreasing Trend in Total Flood Events during past 25 years

13. Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic Storms over India during 1891-2006

14. Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic Disturbances over India during past 120 years (1891-2009)

15. Increasing Frequency of Total Number of Low Pressure Areas over India during past 123 years (1888-2009)

16. Sea Level Rise- Observations • Sea-levels increase by ~ 1.3 mm/year • Recent ~3.1 mm/year

17. Climate Projections Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s Monsoon Rainfall:Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes duringnon-monsoon months No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

18. Extreme Events and their linkage with Climate Change

19. Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events • Climate Change could impact frequency and severity of events on long term and not year to year • No clear long term trend is observed in this regard but a number of regions have reported increase in variability. • Events which are directly connected to temperature change have shown positive trends

20. Extreme Events which are directly and indirectly linked to CC • Those extreme events which are directly linked to the warming are likely to increase- Heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall (floods), etc. • Those indirectly related are still doubtful to have been impacted by climate change- Increase in number/intensity of cyclones, tornadoes, local severe storms, etc.

21. Are Freak Extreme Events linked to Climate Change?

22. Cyclone Phailin: Observed Track

23. Microwave Imagery of Cyclone Phailin EYE EYE WALL Cloud Bands

24. Doppler Radar Imagery of Cyclone Phailin

25. Main Causes of Uttarakhand (Kedarnath) Deluge June 2013 • An unconfirmed cloudburst event, • Glacier and moraineoutbursts, • Steep slopes associated with the terrain, • Sudden gushing of water and debris into the valley regions, • Flooding of rivers on account of incessant rain, • Exceeding of carrying capacity of rivers, • Major landslides, • Panic reactions of people

26. High Resolution Satellite Imagery of Uttarakhand Disaster (2) overtopping of the moraine barrier- resulting in release of impounded water Flow from Glacier • Blocked basin • created by Moraine-a • pool of water was built up (3) Trifurcation of Flow (4) Main Channel of Flow (5) Kedarnath Town struck by flow from 2 channels Kedarnath

27. Uttarakhand Disaster vs Cyclone Phailin

28. Key Factors for High Impact of Extreme Events in Developing Countries Development /Globalization Population Increase Increase in Extreme Events

29. Viewing world through population density India is one among few countries having very high density of population

30. Impact of Climate Change on Developing Countries like India • Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors • Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge • Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

31. How can we reduce the impact of Extreme Weather Events in the Changing Climate? • VULNERABILITY MAPPING of areas with present and projected scenarios of climate change in relation to extreme events • DEVELOPING CAPACITIES TO ADAPT climate change in highly vulnerable regions • INCREASING CAPABILITY TO DETECT AND PREDICT extreme events with greater accuracy and longer lead time. • Deploying aMULTI-HAZARD INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM • PUBLIC AWARENESS about possible impact of climate change and ways & means to cope up

32. Multi-layered Data Base Management and Modeling Geographic Model to analyze and predict impact of events to desired level Data level Country State District Taluk Block Village Demographic Geo-technical Topographic Meteorological Multiple Scenario based on data level & event Seismological Geological

33. Integrated Disaster Management Concept Advanced & Dense Observational Network Disaster Observation & Monitoring High resolution Data assimilation Prediction models Prediction High speed computer Village level data bank Impact Assessment Decision type Sociological Geo-political Economical Administrative Security Law & Order Data type Geographic Demographic Geo-technical Geological Topographical Meteorological Seismological Decision Support System Dissemination of Early Warnings Feedback Communication system Wide Area network-upto village level Disaster proof-satellite based-2 way Location specific administrative Actions State Gov

34. Steps Towards Enhancing Capability to Detect and Predict Extreme Events and Dissemination of Warnings • Met. Modernization Plan -Seamless system of Weather Observations and Prediction • Multi-Hazard Integrated Decision Support System • Sub-District level agro-advisory system • Outreach- a 24x7 Dedicated Weather Channel

35. …thank you