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Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU?

Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU?. Giampaolo LANZIERI Eurostat. Why should we care about?. Coherence of the results in multi-country projections Socio-economic convergence (focus on the EU) Convergence in demography. Concepts of convergence.

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Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU?

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  1. Is there a fertility convergence across the Member States of the EU? Giampaolo LANZIERI Eurostat

  2. Why should we care about? • Coherence of the results in multi-country projections • Socio-economic convergence (focus on the EU) • Convergence in demography Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  3. Concepts of convergence • Sigma-convergence: • Beta-convergence (Barro regression): • Gamma-convergence: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  4. Further concepts of convergence • Conditional beta-convergence: • Convergence clubs: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  5. Relative convergence • Convergence towards a defined set of countries / value. • Index of relative convergence: • Coefficient of relative convergence: • Decomposition: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  6. The analysis • Two hypothesis: • Convergence across European countries as a whole • Convergence of “new” MSs towards the “old” MSs • Two indicators of fertility: • Total fertility rate (TFR) • Mean age at childbearing (MAC) • Various statistics: • Coefficient of variation (sigma-convergence) • Coefficient of Barro regression (beta-convergence) • Kendall indexes of rank concordance (gamma-convergence) • Coefficient of variation for relative convergence • Coefficient of relative convergence Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  7. Fertility σ-convergence in Europe: TFR Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  8. Fertility σ-convergence in Europe: MAC Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  9. Fertility β-convergence in Europe: TFR Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  10. Fertility β-convergence in Europe: MAC Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  11. Fertility γ-convergence in Europe: TFR Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  12. Fertility γ-convergence in Europe: MAC Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  13. Fertility σ-convergence in the EU-6 Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  14. Fertility σ-convergence in the EU-9 Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  15. Fertility relative convergence in the EU-9 Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  16. Conclusions on fertility convergence • Absolute convergence occurred in the past in Europe • Future developments difficult to foresee as: • Alternation of convergence/divergence in the past (cycles) • Stationarity on the most recent past • Conditional convergence and/or convergence clubs need to be explored • No clear evidence about relative convergence towards EU values but may be supported because: • only short time series are available • (new) policy efforts • exchange of best practises Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  17. Implications for assumptions setting • Possible option: (relative) convergence to theoretical values • Extrapolation of convergence indicators for testing speed of convergence • Hypothetical example of extrapolation: Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

  18. Thanks for your attention! Further questions? Do not hesitate to contact: giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

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