OECD Bilateral Trade Database - by Industry and by End-use ( BTDIxE )

OECD Bilateral Trade Database - by Industry and by End-use (BTDIxE) S. Zhu, N. Yamano and A. Cimper Directorate for Science Technology and Industry WPTGS – 8th November 2011 (Colin Webb)

Why BTDIxE ? • To better understand structural changes in international trade • Contribute to analyses of global production networks, regional integration etc. via linking of national Input-Output tables e.g. work of CIIE • Input into OECD Trade in Value Added project • General tool for empirical analyses to address policy issues in areas of Trade, Industry, infrastructure, environment, innovation … • Replaces existing OECD Bilateral Trade by industry Database (BTD)

Coverage • Exports and imports of goods, 1988-2010 • Countries(reporters and partners) • 34 OECD countries • 30 non-Members to cover (or complete) BRIICS / EU27 / G20 / ASEAN9 / CEFTA • Two additional partners = Rest of World and Unspecified • Industries • About 40 activities mainly covering agriculture, mining and manufacturing: generally 2-digit ISIC Rev.3 + 4 technology intensity groups + 8 categories of waste, scrap, recycled goods

End-use categories Broad Economic Categories (BEC) codes in parentheses

BTDIxE end-use categories • 3 SNA end-use categories • Intermediate inputs • Household consumption • Capital goods • 5 mixed end-uses • packed medicaments • personal computers • passenger cars • phones (fixed and mobile) • valuables + other n.e.c (fuels and lubricants currently allocated to intermediate goods)

Sources and Methods • Source = OECD ITCS / UN Comtrade annual merchandise trade statistics (HS 6 digit level = approx. 5000 products) • Standard conversion keys from HS to ISIC and HS to End-use category (EUC) developed for each version of HS (1988, 1996, 2002, 2007) and applied to data according to reported HS. Thus, 8 conversion keys • Specific adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports • Treatment of confidential trade at 2-digit HS level • Other adjustments (country specific)

Generation of conversion keys used for BTDIxEvia existing UNSD correspondence tables BEC (part): Certain HS products have been allocated to end-uses different to those implied by UNSD HS BEC  end-use conversions

Confidential trade • Some confidential trade at the 2-digit HS chapter level can be allocated to ISIC and/or end-use • Generally apparent as the difference between 2-digit HS data and sum of 6-digit components • In the past, such confidential trade, and other “special transactions”, reported (in OECD ITCS) with codes nnCF00 or nnEUxx – for 2-digit chapter nn • Used less frequently in recent years and not present in the ‘official’ UNSD HS-HS, HS-ISIC, HS-BEC correspondences (only regular HS 6-digit codes used) • Therefore, in BTDIxE, differences between 2-digit and sum(6-digit) data are calculated (code nnADJS) before conversion keys applied

From products to industries and end-uses – examples

Hong Kong re-exports • Adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports to get better estimates of bilateral flows to and from China • Use re-exports by origin and destination from Hong Kong Customs and Statistics Department • Allows for China  Hong Kong  China case

Other adjustments Done • Extending estimates for some reporters e.g. • Belgium, 1988-92 : using Belgium-Luxembourg figures • South Africa, 1992-99 : South Africa Customs Union (SACU) • Chinese Taipei, from 2007: “Asia not elsewhere specified” Desired • Re-export adjustments for other major hubs such as Netherlands and Singapore • Country specific adjustments e.g. for UK to deal with distortions in ICT trade (mid 2000s) due to EU VAT fraud • Dealing with second-hand goods not identified in HS either for re-use e.g. transport equipment, or recycling e.g. discarded PCs

Next steps • Finish comparisons between BTDIxE and similar results from WIOD project understand origins of any differences • FinaliseBTDIxE documentation and publish as OECD STI Working Paper(s) Zhu, Yamano and Cimper, 2011 (forthcoming) • Release data on OECD.STAT replacing existing BTD • Use for inter-country I-O analyses (e.g. TiVA) • Identify areas for improvement • Dealing with ISIC Rev. 4

World trade by end-use, 1990-2010 Source: OECD BTDIxE, 2011 (total of imports)

World trade by category and by originating region 1995 Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard, 2011

World trade by category and by originating region 2009 Source: www.oecd.org/sti/scoreboard

OECD Bilateral Trade Database - by Industry and by End-use ( BTDIxE )