The return of the revenge of Bayes theorem returns

Jan 01, 2013

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The return of the revenge of Bayes theorem returns

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Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem. Suppose we have estimated prior probabilities for events we are concerned with, and then obtain new information. We would like to a sound method to computed revised or posterior probabilities. Bayes’ theorem gives us a way to do this.

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Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem. Bayes’ Theorem.

1.29k views • 44 slides

Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem. Special Type of Conditional Probability. Recall- Conditional Probability. P ( Y  T  C | S ) will be used to calculate P ( S | Y  T  C ) P ( Y  T  C | F ) will be used to calculate P ( F | Y  T  C ) HOW????? We will learn in the next lesson?

1.28k views • 32 slides

“Revenge of the Repressed”

“Revenge of the Repressed”. Lecture on April 13, 2009. Lecture Overview. Review of last two weeks How to explain the transformation from Stalinist repression + terror to sudden resistance? Explanatory framework Comparing Hungary and Poland in 1956. Review.

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PROBABILITY - Bayes’ Theorem

PROBABILITY - Bayes’ Theorem. Business Statistics Dr. Gunjan Malhotra Assistant Professor Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad gmalhotra@imt.edu mailforgunjan@gmail.com. Introduction – Bayes’ Theorem. Developed by Reverend Thomas Bayes (1702-1761).

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Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theorem. Motivating Example: Drug Tests. A drug test gives a false positive 2% of the time (that is, 2% of those who test positive actually are not drug users) And the same test gives a false negative 1% of the time (that is, 1% of those who test negative actually are drug users)

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An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes ' Theorem

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes ' Theorem. By Eliezer Yudkowsky. reference. http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes. Questions.

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THE WALL OF REVENGE

THE WALL OF REVENGE. Bait: Amontillado (Rare Wine). Bait: Amontillado (Rare Wine ). Insults Fortunato’s pride by saying he’ll get L uchesi. Bait: Amontillado (Rare Wine). Insults Fortunato’s pride by saying he’ll get L uchesi.

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Bayes ’ Theorem

Bayes ’ Theorem. Susanna Kujanpää OUAS 6.12.2012. Bayes ’ Theorem. This is a theorem with two distinct interpretations . 1) Bayesian interpretation : it shows how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for evidence. Bayes ’ Theorem.

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Bayes ’ Theorem

Bayes ’ Theorem. The “ REVERSE ” probability theorem. The “ General ” Situation. A sample space S is “ broken up ” into chunks Well, maybe N chunks, not just 4. This is called a “ PARTITION ” and the formal definition is:. Definition (Baptism).

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Bayes’ Theorem

Samuel Chukwuemeka ( Samdom For Peace). Bayes’ Theorem. Students will: Learn the meaning of Conditional Probability Understand Bayes’ Theorem Solve problems using Bayes’ Theorem. Objectives.

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Revenge of the Ranger

Revenge of the Ranger.

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Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem. Example. Three jars contain colored balls as described in the table below. One jar is chosen at random and a ball is selected. If the ball is red, what is the probability that it came from the 2 nd jar?. Example. We will define the following events:

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6.3 Bayes Theorem

6.3 Bayes Theorem. We can use Bayes Theorem…. …when we know some conditional probabilities, but wish to know others. For example: We know P(test positive|have disease), and we wish to know P(have disease|test positive ). Ex. 1 (book ex 2- p. 419).

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Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem. Remember Language ID?. Let p(X) = probability of text X in English Let q(X) = probability of text X in Polish Which probability is higher? (we’d also like bias toward English since it’s more likely a priori – ignore that for now)

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A Walkthrough of Bayes Theorem

A Walkthrough of Bayes Theorem. These slides are adapted from a visual proof originally compiled by Dr. Perloe. Introduction.

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Bayes Theorem

Bayes Theorem. Last week: Lie detector manufacturers conduct experiments and show that P ( pass | lying ) = 0.14 P ( fail | truthful ) = 0.12 These figures imply that the machine gives “bad” results only rarely. Employers using a lie detector in recruitment would expect

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Bayes Theorem

B5. B4. B2. B3. B1. B6. Bayes Theorem. Mutually exclusive events A collection of events (B1, B2, …, Bk) is said to be mutually exclusive if no two of them overlap.

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Bayes ’ Theorem

Posterior Probabilities Given the planning board’s recommendation not to approve the zoning change, we revise the prior probabilities as follows:. Bayes ’ Theorem. = .34. Bayes’ Theorem. Conclusion

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Revenge of the whale

By David Bradshaw. Revenge of the whale. Nathaniel Philbrick. He has been writing ever since the early 1980s He was bourn 1956 in Boston Mass. He went to Brown University to achieve his bachelors degree in English.

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Bayes ’ Theorem

P(data|model, I). P(model|data, I) = P(model, I). P(data,I). Likelihood describes how well the model predicts the data. Bayes ’ Theorem. Posterior Probability represents the degree to which we believe a given model accurately describes the situation

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Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem.

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