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ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Forecast

FY2002-2003: ONR AOSN Monterey Bay field experiment FY 2004: CIMT-$100K 2003-2004 hindcast experiment FY 2004-2006: ONR MB06/ASAP Monterey Bay field experiment FY 2006: CIMT-$100K Transition the ROMS nowcast and forecast toward real-time operational demonstration

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ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Forecast

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  1. FY2002-2003: ONR AOSN Monterey Bay field experiment FY 2004: CIMT-$100K 2003-2004 hindcast experiment FY 2004-2006: ONR MB06/ASAP Monterey Bay field experiment FY 2006: CIMT-$100K Transition the ROMS nowcast and forecast toward real-time operational demonstration FY 2006: CIMT-$25.4K (with Leslie Rosenfeld) Real-time Monterey Bay wind product PI: Yi Chao JPL ROMS Group: Ocean: John Farrara Gene Li Adam Wang Carrie Zhang IT/Database/Web: Peggy Li Quoc Vu Thanks to many CIMT investigators ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Forecast

  2. CIMT needs a modeling component, because? • Model can be used to • Forecast into the future: observation can only tell what happens today • Model can be used to • Fill the data gap: ocean will be always under-sampled, over 900 profiles/day were collected during August 2003 AOSN experiment; 100 moorings are sufficient for MB observing system

  3. Two complementary modeling approaches • Modeling for application users (e.g., weather forecast, fishery management) • Process-oriented modeling: simple/easy understood or theoretical framework

  4. 1.5-km 5-km 15-km

  5. Data Assimilation: 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) method J = 0.5 (x-xf)T B-1 (x-xf) + 0.5 (h x-y)T R-1 (h x-y) y: observation x: model Xa = xf + xf 3-day forecast xf 24-hour forecast 24-hour assimilation cycle Xa Initial condition Time Aug.5 Aug.4 Aug.2 Aug.3 Aug.1

  6. CIMT ROMS Reanalysis (Retrospective Analysis) and Real-Time Forecast Plan 1-year Reanalysis 2003-2004 (CIMT) Multi-year Reanalysis 2003-2006 Real-time forecast clim. spinup TIME Sep.04 Aug.06 ASAP (ONR) Aug.03 AOSN (ONR) CIMT data: ship CTD & underway, M0, Sea Lion profiles Other data: satellite, M1/2, AUVs, ships

  7. An Interactive Web Portal to Manage and Visualize Sea Lion Data http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov

  8. http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov

  9. No Data Assimilation 194 Sea Lion profiles Mean Bias RMS Assimilation of AOSN data

  10. A New ROMS Capability: Predicting Sea Level

  11. Data and Model Products • Real-time Monterey Bay wind demonstration • CIMT web site • ROMS 3D nowcast and forecast demonstration in the near future (2007 maybe) • Temperature, salinity • Surface current, complementary to HF radar but filling in data gaps and extending offshore • Sea level • Future ROMS capabilities, collaboration with other CIMT PIs • Coupled physical-biological ecosystem processes, in collaboration with Chavez and Chai • Other CIMT data types

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