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GOES-R, fractals, and the butterfly effect

GOES-R, fractals, and the butterfly effect. (or: how GOES-R can save civilization). Our place in the scheme of things?.

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GOES-R, fractals, and the butterfly effect

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  1. GOES-R, fractals, and the butterfly effect (or: how GOES-R can save civilization) Atmospheric Policy Program

  2. Our place in the scheme of things? Atmospheric Policy Program

  3. A fractal is a rough or fragmented geometric shape that can be subdivided in parts, each of which is (at least approximately) a reduced-size copy of the whole. Fractals are generally self-similar and independent of scale. GOES-R: our place in “earth’s fractal” Atmospheric Policy Program

  4. % of global effort 300 people/6B people ~ 5x10-8 3000 people/6B people ~ 5x10-7 $300M/$30T ~10-5 % of earth science/services $300M/$10B ~3x10-2 GOES-R: our place in earth’s fractal Atmospheric Policy Program

  5. Global concerns GOES-R Atmospheric Policy Program

  6. Another dimension:the picture isn’t static……because the human race is on a rollour job is to serve the world of 2012 and beyond… Atmospheric Policy Program

  7. …in effect, to “land on the carrier…” Atmospheric Policy Program

  8. Population growth increase in per capita consumption of resources advance in technology in a short period of time... Atmospheric Policy Program

  9. 105 years computation 103 years 103 years 50 years Atmospheric Policy Program

  10. biotechnology 1400 years 50 years Atmospheric Policy Program

  11. 105 years transportation 104 years 100 years Atmospheric Policy Program

  12. a parenthesis…OK --So science and technology as a whole are moving forward...What about advances in meteorology? Atmospheric Policy Program

  13. assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is infinite climate is unchanging weather is unpredictable Throughout history,mankind has operated on three principles... Atmospheric Policy Program

  14. In the span of a century……meteorologists have shown... 1871-1916 1984-2003 2004- Atmospheric Policy Program

  15. Not just locally… or regionally… but also globally. Assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is finite... Atmospheric Policy Program

  16. The climate changes…sometimes abruptly Atmospheric Policy Program

  17. …and weather is more predictable than we’d thought… Atmospheric Policy Program

  18. Population growth increase in per capita consumption of resources advance in technology in a short period of time... Atmospheric Policy Program

  19. In this period of rapid change, how do policy makers see the world? Atmospheric Policy Program

  20. planet (global warming, biodiversity, fisheries depletion, deforestation…) humanity (poverty, peacekeeping, education, disease…) governance (taxation, trade, biotech, IP…) (~20) unsolved global issues Atmospheric Policy Program

  21. treaties and conventions? world government? big conferences? G7, EU, other multilaterals? (~20) years to solve them Atmospheric Policy Program

  22. …environmental issues will muscle their way onto center stage. Why? Because… In this coming 20 years… Atmospheric Policy Program

  23. climate variability recurrence of extremes emergence of unintended consequences non-sustainability society to internalize emerging understanding Human success has been achieved in a time shortcompared with the time required for... Atmospheric Policy Program

  24. (adverse) climate variability natural extremes more violent than we are prepared to accommodate environmental/social catastrophes declining margins ineffective top-down strategies Therefore we can expect a future marked by... Atmospheric Policy Program

  25. Bring end users to the table Reshape the policy landscape So…this is where the butterfly comes in.GOES-R can “flap its wings” and change outcomes throughout the larger system Atmospheric Policy Program

  26. Replace with Bring end users to the table? (remember the VAS assessment?) GOES-R dev Decision support End use GOES-R dev Decision support End use Atmospheric Policy Program

  27. Reshape the policy landscape? Atmospheric Policy Program

  28. Reshape the policy landscape? Atmospheric Policy Program

  29. Costs, benefits of met science, services Impact of different market mechanisms International data sharing Segmentation of weather providers Uncertainty re long-term requirements Need for long-term continuity Prioritization Other… Needed: new policy tools, for assessing/addressing… Atmospheric Policy Program

  30. Policy Forum Series Summer Policy Colloquium Congressional Science Fellows Policy research advertisement advertisement AMS helping the community meet this need: advertisement advertisement advertisement advertisement advertisement advertisement

  31. % of global effort $10T/30T ~ 30% Ecosystem services ~$30T GlObal concErnS Atmospheric Policy Program

  32. “Lastly, I would address one general admonition to all: that they consider what are the true ends of knowledge, and that they seek it not either for pleasure of mind, or for contention, or for superiority to others, or for profit, or fame, or power, or any of these inferior things; but for the benefit and use of life; and that they perfect and govern it in charity. For it was from the lust of power that the angels fell, from the lust of knowledge that men fell; but of charity there can be no excess, neither did angel or man ever come in danger by it.” -- Francis Bacon Atmospheric Policy Program

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