U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science

1. U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Science Climate Change Research Division UpdateBERAC MeetingMay 15, 2007 Jerry Elwood Director, Climate Change Research Division, Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy

2. Update on Climate Change Research Program • Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Products • Strategic Plan for BER’s Climate Change Research Program

3. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Products/Reports (SAPs) • CCSP committed to produce 21 products • DOE/BER responsible for producing 3 of those 21 • Products to be government (CCSP) reports after peer and public review and NSTC/CENR clearance Purpose of SAPs: • Support informed discussion and decisions by policymakers, resource managers, and other CCSP stakeholders • Perform analyses structured around specific questions • Help define future directions and priorities of the CCSP • Satisfy assessment requirements of Global Change Research Act of 1990

4. DOE/BER responsible for producing three Synthesis and Assessment Products • SAP 2.1: Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (SAP 2.1a) and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application (SAP 2.1b) – prepared by DOE FACA committee; NSTC clearance for printing and release imminent • SAP 3.1: Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications – prepared by DOE FACA committee; peer review completed, public review initiated • SAP 4.5: Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the U.S. – prepared by experts at DOE labs; expert and public review completed, initiation of NSTC clearance process imminent

5. Strategic Planning: The premise for climate change research has changed • Less emphasis on climate change detection and attribution – stronger evidence of coherent warming in the global atmosphere, in the ocean, and in snow and ice. Recent scientific analyses concludes that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from energy production and use are major drivers of the observed climate change anomaly • More emphasis on climate change science to support informed decision making about future climate and how to deal with and respond to it

6. Strategic Planning: The premise …(cont’d) • Issue central to DOE’s mission – Energy-related emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols are a major driver of the observed climate change anomaly over the past century • Challenges are: • provide decision makers with scientific information that allows informed decisions, e.g., “safe” level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (level at which CO2 in the global atmosphere should be stabilized) • developing possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to deal with future climatic changes and potential adverse consequences that may occur before or after stabilization

7. Strategic Planning: The premise for climate change research has changed Need to answer questions that decision makers/society are asking or will likely ask: • What will happen? How is climate likely to progress over the coming decades to centuries under different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios? Could human-induced forcing cause abrupt changes in climate, and if so, how abrupt and how much? • What would climate change mean for us? What are potential impacts on human systems and on ecosystems and resources of value to humans? • What can we do about it? What are viable options and their efficacy in mitigating or adapting to climate change? When must specific alternatives for mitigation or adaptation be deployed?

8. Strategic Plan Challenges: Next Generation of Climate Change Research • Strategic Plan needs to map out DOE’s future investment portfolio in climate change research • Where to invest program dollars? • balancing process research with computational modeling and model development? • Is there an optimal balance, and if so, what is it? • With constrained budgets, what research should be given the highest priority for funding to improve and provide a sound scientific underpinning of climate and Earth system models, including improving confidence in their application for answering policy relevant questions?

9. Strategic Plan Challenges …(cont’d) • How do we ensure information from process research is better represented in models to improve their performance? • Where does DOE need to play a leading role? Where do we or should we depend on collaboration/partnering with other agencies? • What is needed to develop state-of-the-art models to effectively and efficiently utilize DOE’s leadership-class computing capabilities?

10. CCRD Strategic Plan: 5 overall goals • Advance climate & Earth systems modeling • Improve understanding and model representations of climate processes and Earth system processes that can affect climate • Improve understanding of human impacts on and consequences of climate change • Improve capabilities and infrastructure for conducting climate change research • Manage for results through strategic, problem-driven management approaches

11. Strategic Plan Status for BER’s Climate Change Program • Draft plan - under review by BER staff • Plan is forward looking - defines the next generation of climate change research • Focuses on: • enhancing understanding of climate processes and Earth system processes that influence climate, climate change responses and climate change feedbacks, • developing and improving climate and Earth system models needed to project and assess potential impacts on future climate of different emission scenarios and the potential consequences, • improving research capabilities, and • managing for results • Expect plan to be available for review prior to fall meeting

12. Options for independent review of draft plan? • Workshop under “BERAC umbrella” with outside experts toreview planand address questions and assess if plan appropriate - provides recommendations, revises plan as necessary • Workshop under “BERAC umbrella” with outside expertsto address challenge questionswithoutseeing the plan – provides recommendations, and revises plan as appropriate • Workshop outside of “BERAC umbrella” to address questions and prepare report containing ideas and findings, but no recommendations (avoids FACA issue). Pros and cons of whether or not to consider the Strategic Plan in the workshop?