Drought monitoring for the Middle East & North Africa

1. Drought monitoring for the Middle East & North Africa Ben Zaitchik – Johns Hopkins University John Bolten, Matt Rodell, Dave Toll, Ted Engman, ShahidHabib– NASA Goddard Space Flight Center MutluOzdogan–University of Wisconsin Martha Anderson – USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab

2. Gilgamesh(c. 2600 BCE) “The Bull of Heavendevoured the pasture, and drank the water of the river in great slurps. With each slurp it used up one mile of the river, but its thirst was not satisfied. It stripped the land bare. It broke up the palm trees, as it bent them to fit them into its mouth . . . . The Bull bellowed in the dust.”

3. Joseph (c. 1800 BCE) “And Joseph said unto Pharaoh: ‘Seven years of plenty will come to the land of Egypt, and after that seven years of famine. And now let Pharaoh appoint overseers to store up food in every city throughout the years of plenty, and there will be food for the seven years of famine, and the land will not perish through the famine.’ ”

4. Precipitation TRMM 3B43 Climatology (mm/day)

5. Precipitation CAMS-OPI Precipitation Anomaly; Fertile Crescent

6. Precipitation CAMS-OPI Precipitation Anomaly; Fertile Crescent

7. Annual Precipitation: Fertile Crescent Agriculture AVHRR NDVI Timing and Intensity Zaitchik et al. (2007)

8. Water Resources • The scarcity of freshwater is an increasingly acute problem • 14 of 20 nations are in water deficit today • Rapid population growth • The region is particularly vulnerable to climate change • IPCC model consensus indicates reduced precipitation for much of the region • Increased variability is a significant challenge for rainfed agriculture and livestock • Real and perceived competition for waterbetween countries engenders political tension • More than 60% of MENA’s water supply flows across international borders PERSIANN annual precipitation estimate (figure credit: J. Bolten)

9. Water Resources Percentage of Total Renewable Water Resources Withdrawn by Region (1998-2002) Source: World Bank, 2007

10. Drought Monitoring Identified needs: • Characterize areas vulnerable to drought • Enhance drought forecasting capacity • Improve desertification monitoring • Institute alert systems for damage mitigation • Document historic trends • Improve data collection, management, and sharing

11. Technical Approach

12. Philosophical Approach • Engage in collaborative problem identification and system implementation • Produce regionally customized and evaluated NASA research results amenable to national-level applications and operations • Transfer methodologies (where appropriate) to regional partners • Encourage a policy of data sharing through open dissemination of results

13. MENA LDAS(Matt Rodell, John Bolten, et al.) NASA has partnered with USAID (OMEP) to develop a Land Data Assimilation System for the MENA, which will provide regional water balance assessments to address: • water availability • patterns of variability • aquifer monitoring • evapotranspiration mapping ET (mm/day) for April 2006

14. Partnership: ICBA • MENA-LDAS hub at ICBA campus Dubai will provide regional data that will be an important input to decision-makers John D. Bolten NASA GSFC

15. NASA’s Project Nile Goal: improved hydrometeorological information for research, planning, and water management • Components: • Customized Land Data Assimilation System • Land cover mapping and simulation • Satellite-derived evapotranspiration • Integration to Decision Support

16. NASA’s Project Nile Goal: improved hydrometeorological information for research, planning, and water management Partners: RCMRD NBI-WRMP Addis Ababa University Future University (Sudan) USAID US Department of State UNESCO The World Bank Ethiopian Mapping Authority Ethiopian Environmental Authority

17. Water InformationSystem Platforms (WISPs)

18. Thank you