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EU/Supersite community

Volcanological supersite in Iceland : Importance of the FUTUREVOLC project at European and global level Sue Loughlin , BGS and FUTUREVOLC partners. EU/Supersite community. European Supersites GEO/GEOSS EU FP7 projects (e.g. MIA-VITA, VUELCO…) EU FP7 / GMES / Copernicus (e.g. EVOSS)

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EU/Supersite community

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  1. Volcanological supersite in Iceland : Importance of the FUTUREVOLC project at European and global level Sue Loughlin, BGS and FUTUREVOLC partners

  2. EU/Supersite community • European Supersites • GEO/GEOSS • EU FP7 projects (e.g. MIA-VITA, VUELCO…) • EU FP7 / GMES / Copernicus (e.g. EVOSS) • EPOS • CEOS • WEZARD (meteorology community) • Other Supersites (e.g. Hawaii)

  3. Cost of aviation disruption 2010 UK loss £466 million Total global GDP impact $5 billion 100,000 flights cancelled 7 million passengers affected

  4. How will FUTUREVOLC help? • Accessible infrastructure • Monitoring and analysis – multidisciplinary, timely, uncertainties • Research into operations (source parameters, validation) • Communication : within the project in Iceland trans-boundary • Key end-users are within the project

  5. Monitoring and analysis

  6. Effective monitoring and analysis • Ground, Air, Space-based • Real-time and near real-time multi-parametric data acquisition and analysis • Better understanding of physical processes • Operational scientific decision-making SigrunHreinsdottir MODIS

  7. 1. Monitoring capacity Improved monitoring Timely recognition of precursors Short-term forecasting Multiparametric monitoring Data management Web system

  8. 2: The First Model Run Source parameters for historical eruptions Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson

  9. 3. Alerts and Early Warning

  10. 4: Model source parameters Mass eruption rate Grain size distribution Atmospheric interaction Gas composition Magnus TumiGudmundsson

  11. 5: Validation / data assimilation Validation of EO data Algorithm development Improved measurements and sampling Data assimilation for models 7 May 2010 (Simon Carn, OMI)

  12. Research into operations

  13. Building on what works… National and international media Icelandic community Near real-time data Website reports IAVW ICAO Aviation colour codes VONA … and others

  14. Aviation colour codes / VONA

  15. Research into operations FUTUREVOLC advisory group? Access to data and analysis Challenges of real-time source parameters Data assimilation FUTUREVOLC team comprises operational ‘End-users’

  16. End-users forensic analysis (communication) 2010, 2011 • Civil Protection • Aviation sector • Airlines • Met Services (including VAACs) • Scientists • Geological Surveys • Government departments

  17. Communication

  18. Communication • Questionnaire to key end-users • Forensic analysis • Best practice in trans-border communication

  19. Planning and preparation • Iceland, Europe, the rest of the world have different needs, handled at national level • Airborne hazards • Volcanic ash (and other aerosols such as sulphates, PM2.5, PM10), gas • Risks to various sectors • Impacts to aviation, human and animal health, agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems etc • Planning and preparation under uncertainty • Communication and early warning critical

  20. UK operations and preparedness Higher Education Institutes

  21. UK and Iceland Communication – first 24 hrs Atmospheric operations The decision- makers The scientific expertise FAAM ARSF Higher Education Institutes Courtesy: NCAS

  22. Eruption scenarios Iceland can produce eruptions of different: scales styles eruptive products durations Stromboli online Hazards include: Volcanic ash Other aerosol (e.g. Sulphate) Volcanic gases Glacier floods (jokulhlaups) Lahars Lava flows Pyroclastic density currents From http://www.geostudy.zoomshare.com

  23. Laki-type eruption Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruptuion Schmidt et al., 2011, PNAS, 108 (38), 15710-15715

  24. National contingency planning

  25. Aviation risk reduction (reduced losses) • Risk factors: • Hazard likelihood • Monitoring capacity (real-time and near real-time) • ‘First model run’ source term parameters • ‘Source term’ model parameters • Early warning (effective system) • Communication (research-IMO-VAAC-Aviation)

  26. Volcano Observatory Best Practice workshops • 80+ volcano observatories 2011 Short term forecasting 2013 Communication

  27. Global Volcano Model • A growing international network that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. • It will provide systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk on global, regional and local scales. • It will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences.

  28. FUTUREVOLC in Montserrat NERC : Strengthening Resilience in Volcanic Areas (STREVA)

  29. Summary • Research into operations • Trans-border hazards and risks • Risk reduction • Increased resilience • Best practice in data accessibility/multiparametric monitoring • Best practice in communication • Responding to stakeholder needs • A unique opportunity…

  30. FUTUREVOLC Thor Thordarson

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