Small Community SAMs & Determining Natural Resource Dependency: …a tale of two port Cities

1. Research supported by: Philip Watson University of Idaho Nick Beleiciks Oregon Employment Department NOAA Fisheries / Northwest Fisheries Science Center Small Community SAMs & Determining Natural Resource Dependency:…a tale of two port Cities Pacific Northwest Regional Economics Conference May 14, 2008

2. Who Cares??? • Community Officials • Role of specific sectors in local economy • Sources of tax revenue • NOAA Fisheries • Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation • Management Act’s National Standard 8 • Others • United States Forest Service • Bureau of Land Management Resource Dependency & Impacts

3. Regional Input-Output Models • Communities may be more resource dependent • Larger cities dominate the regional economy • Regions can mask impacts on smaller communities • Small Communities More Open (generally) • Commuters • Local industry sales to nonresidents • West Coast Small Communities • 125 fishery dependent or engaged • Other marine resources (recreation, ecosystem) Small Communities are Unique

4. Base Industries • Fishing – seafood processing • Shipbuilding • Tourism Connect every job, dollar of wages, and gross regional product in community to the export industry that supports it. • Avoid “double counting” Economic Base Theory

5. Non-survey Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Accurately reflect small communities Applicable to any community Use documentable data sources Objective: Create SAMS for CGE Models

6. Newport, Oregon • 2007 Population Estimate 10,455 • Located in Lincoln County (pop. 44,630) • County seat • Largest city in Lincoln County • ZIP Code 97365 • Known for tourism and beer • 2006 Total Landings • $33 million • Ranked 1nd on West Coast Communities in the Study

7. Newport, Oregon (Ugly map, great foreshadowing)

8. Westport, Washington • 2005 Population Estimate 2,335 • Located in Grays Harbor (pop. 70,800) • Largest city in county is Aberdeen 16,450 • ZIP Code 98595 • Known for tourism and ship building • 2006 Total Landings • $27.7 million • Ranked 3rd on West Coast Communities in the Study

9. Westport, WA (again with the foreshadowing)

10. Fish Landings Over $435 Million in Total Commercial Landings

11. SAM pedigree • Gathering the data • Community Contacts • IMPLAN • Federal data sources Building the Model

12. Schwarm & Cutler (2003) Building Small City and Town SAMS and CGE Models • Base design for ‘self-balancing’ SAM • Waters, Weber, & Holland (1999) The Role of Agriculture in Oregon’s Economic Base: Findings from a Social Accounting Matrix • Employment dependency on export base • Computable general equilibrium SAM Pedigree

13. COMMUNITY CONTACTS Annual Detailed Budget Finance Department Community Economic Development County Assessor’s Office Property tax data request GIS-based property tax data online

14. COMMUNITY CONTACTS Advantages of using community information Unique production function for government Separate production functions for each department Protective Services Parks, Recreation, and Libraries Infrastructure Other (mostly administration) City Investments City gov’t revenues unique for the community Accurate account of land and buildings

15. ZIP Code level database • Gross Absorption Report (C x A) • Regional Make Report (A x C) • Household Commodity Demand • Regional Purchase Coefficients (RPC) IMPLAN Data

16. Bureau of Labor Statistics • Consumer Expenditure Survey • Bureau of Economic Analysis • Capital Flows in the U.S. Economy, 1997 • Census Bureau • Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) • OnTheMap • Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Online • Nonemployer statistics • 2000 Census • Population • Housing stock by income level Federal Data Sources

17. OnTheMap

18. U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap is the primary source of jobs by industry in the Small Community SAMs OnTheMap Part of Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Census – states partnership Released in Feb. 2006 Most recent data is 2004 http://lehdmap2.did.census.gov/themap/

19. U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap provides Community level jobs by industry Commuters into area Commuter out of area How OnTheMap works States supply QCEW/ES-202 data to Census Census matches SSNs with federal data on individuals Information about workers place of residents, age, earnings

20. U.S. Census Bureau Industry breakout employment based on ZIP Code business patterns or other information Nonemployer statistics Used to impute proprietor jobs into the model Available at the county level County nonemployers allocated proportionately to community based on OnTheMap proportions

21. U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) is the source of employment income in the Small Community SAMs QWI earnings are for the county level Community earnings assumed same as county Assumed proprietors and employees earn the same QWI earnings available at 4-digit NAICS

22. Small Community SAM

23. Small Community SAM SAM has 22 industries 2-digit NAICS with industry breakouts for fishing, seafood manufacturing, and ship manufacturing Endogenous Accounts form a 43x43 matrix

24. Export Dependency • Based on Waters, Weber, and Holland Z = (I – S)-1TY • (I – S)-1 is matrix of SAM Leontief inverse coefs. • TY diagonalized vector of exogenous demand • Z is matrix of total impacts • Z multiplied by employment to output ratio • Generates employment dependency indices

25. Export Dependency

26. Table 4 – Westport, WA - Value-Added Contribution Westport, WA

27. Table 5 – Newport, OR - Value-Added Contribution Newport, Oregon

28. Westport, Washington

29. Newport, Oregon

30. Thank You! Thank you to NOAA Fisheries and the Northwest Fisheries Science Center for their support of this research Philip Watson University of Idaho pwatson@uidaho.com Nick Beleiciks Oregon Employment Department Nick.J.Beleiciks@state.or.us