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World Bank Study: Making Transport Climate Resilient

World Bank Study: Making Transport Climate Resilient. Case study: Roads in Ethiopia Presented by Chief Project Manager Karsten Sten Pedersen, COWI A/S ksp@cowi.dk. Making Transport Climate Resilient Study Objectives and Outputs. Study objectives: establish knowledge base

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World Bank Study: Making Transport Climate Resilient

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  1. World Bank Study: Making Transport Climate Resilient Case study: Roads in Ethiopia Presented by Chief Project Manager Karsten Sten Pedersen, COWI A/S ksp@cowi.dk SSATP annual meeting

  2. Making Transport Climate ResilientStudy Objectives and Outputs Study objectives: • establish knowledge base • deliver guidelines for road transport policy decisions • contribute to creation of awareness Outputs to contribute to answering – given existing climate predictions: • what are the most important challenges for roads assets? • what are the additional costs for making road climate resilient? • what are costs to road users if adaption is not applied? • what are recommended measures in short and long term? 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  3. Making Transport Climate ResilientClimate Trends and Climate Scenarios Observed climate trends the last 30-40 years: • increased average temperatures, about 0.3OC per decade • increased number of hot days and nights • larger variation from year to year in extreme events • no significant trend in annual rainfall Climate scenarios/models for Ethiopia: • temperatures increase with 2-3OC till 2050 • rainfall patterns are uncertain to predict • but, the number of extreme events will increase 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  4. Making Transport Climate ResilientRoad Assets in Ethiopia Current road network • 38,000 km classified roads • of which 6,000 km are paved • 4,400 bridges • 40,000 culverts • community roads 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  5. Making Transport Climate ResilientChallenge for Road Assets Success of roads relies on: • choice of alignment, design and construction • climate and topography of location • traffic loading • maintenance Largest problem for current road assets: • overloading of roads • poor maintenance • lack of repair These problems are amplified by climate/climate change 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  6. Making Transport Climate ResilientChange in Precipitation Intensity - Structures • Increased peak flows and floods  scour and bank erosion for bridges floods/wash away culverts Measures: • Long term: • revise design criteria as more information on climate becomes available • Short term: • more maintenance will reduce risks generally • spot upgrades in a few critical areas based on cost/benefit assessments 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  7. Making Transport Climate ResilientChange in Precipitation Intensity - Roads • Increased rain intensity  flooding and wash away of roads more land slides Measures: • Long term: • improved design of drainage • better slope protection for new constructions • more critical analyses before constructing in river beds • more evaluation of sub materials from community roads Short term: • more maintenance • spot upgrades in critical areas 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  8. Making Transport Climate ResilientChange in Temperatures An increase of 2-4OC will mainly have an effect for bridges and bituminous pavements Bridges: • no change in design methodology needed • design temperature can be increased • no significant additional costs expected Bituminous pavements: • stiffness of asphalt will be affected • use more adequate asphalt mix when resurfacing • no additional costs may occur 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  9. Making Transport Climate ResilientAdditional Construction Costs for a DS4 Road Summary of cost increases to upgrading to paved road DS4 and better when a 100 year storm becomes a 82 year storm 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  10. Making Transport Climate ResilientEconomic Costs Total cost of climate change 2010 – 2050, NPV 2009 mill. USD 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  11. Making Transport Climate ResilientStrategic Recommendations A strategy needs to be flexible, adaptive and robust • and acknowledge that climate models show large variability in future rainfall patterns – which is the most important design parameter A climate resilient road in the future (till 2050) will not be that different from a climate resilient road now Long run recommendations: • review climate related parts of design guidelines at 5 – 10 year intervals to take account of observed climate trends • establish more focussed maintenance strategies • develop reliable hydrology models to improve decisions on future road alignments 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

  12. Making Transport Climate ResilientRecommendations in the Short Run Short run (next 5 years) initiatives: • spend more on maintenance – it is cost-efficient today • more critical analysis of alignments before constructing • do not reconstruct existing network because of climate change before it is worn out – maybe with a few carefully selected exceptions • the existing good and comprehensive design manuals may be adjusted – after due consideration to future safety levels • do more research in predicting sedimentation and run off in the landscape 20.10.2009 SSATP annual meeting

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