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Mu Ran Nan Liang Ya Zuo Yang Han Yuwei Hong December 1, 2011

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of The Cheesecake Factory within the chain restaurant industry, including macroeconomic trends, industry overview, financial analysis, and stock market prospects.

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Mu Ran Nan Liang Ya Zuo Yang Han Yuwei Hong December 1, 2011

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  1. Mu Ran Nan Liang Ya Zuo Yang Han Yuwei Hong December 1, 2011

  2. Agenda • Introduction • Macroeconomic and industry overview • Company and business overview • Relevant stock market prospects • Financial analysis • Multiple valuation • Financial projections • DCF valuation • Recommendation

  3. Introduction • The Cheesecake Factory • Upscale, casual, full-service dining restaurants • Industry • Chain restaurants • Selection reasons • Interests • Operations and management • Financial health • Few analyst coverage

  4. Macroeconomic Overview • Real GDP Source: Capital IQ MacroEconomic 2011 Nov 30

  5. Macroeconomic Overview • Unemployment Rate Source: Capital IQ MacroEconomic 2011 Nov 30

  6. Macroeconomic Overview • Consumer Confidence Index Source: Capital IQ MacroEconomic 2011 Nov 30

  7. Macroeconomic Overview • Consumer spending Data Source: ISIB Consumer Spending Report 2011

  8. Industry Overview • Chain Restaurant • Providing food services to patrons who order and are served while seated (i.e. waiter or waitress service) and pay after eating • Products and services segmentations • Major players Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  9. Major Markets • Age demographics • Income demographics Data Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  10. Key Success Factors

  11. Industry Performance Declining industry’s revenue growth rate in past few years • Industry’s annual revenue Data Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  12. Key External Drivers Expected to increase slowly  potential opportunity for the industry Expected to increase slowly  potential opportunity for the industry Expected to increase slowly  potential opportunity for the industry Expected to increase  threatens operators in the industry Expected to increase  potential threat to the industry Data Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011, ISIB Consumer sentiment index report, ISIB consumer spending report, ISIB households over $100,000 report, ISIB healthy eating index report

  13. Industry Structure • Barriers to Entry: Low • Competition Level: High • Concentration Level: Low • Life Cycle Stage: Mature • Revenue Volatility: Low • Capital Intensity: Medium • Industry Assistance: Low • Regulation Level: Medium • Technology Change: Medium • Industry Globalization: Low

  14. Industry Trend • Restaurants will offer new and healthy foods to survive in a competitive market • The domestic market is increasingly becoming saturated. Therefore, some major operators are continuing to invest internationally through franchises • Restaurants will continue to invest in technology, including electronic customer ordering, labor scheduling and electronic product ordering systems

  15. US Bread Production Industry • Manufactures bread and bakery products, such as cakes, muffins, pastries, pies and other similar baked goods. Data Source: ISIB Bread Production in the US Industry Report 2011

  16. Company OverviewEvolution Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  17. Company OverviewBrief Description The sale in 2010 is $1,659,404

  18. Company OverviewBrands Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  19. Company Overview Competitive Advantage Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  20. Company OverviewFuture Expansion Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  21. Company OverviewFuture Expansion Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  22. Company Overview Risk Factors Analysis Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  23. Stock OverviewHistory Price Data Source: Capital IQ

  24. Stock Overview 8 competitors Data Source: Capital IQ

  25. Stock OverviewRelevant Policy • No dividends • Past • future • Stock Repurchase • 2008: 2.1 million • 2010: 9.6 million • 2011-2012 • Stock Options • Employees Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  26. Financial Analysis Revenues Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  27. Financial Analysis Ratios Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  28. DuPont Analysis Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  29. Comparable • Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) • Market share: 14.3% • Industry Brand Names: Red Lobster, Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, The Capital Grille, Bahama Breeze and Seasons 52 • 1,800 restaurants • Brinker International Inc. (NYSE:EAT) • Market share: 4.4% • Industry Brand Names: Chili’s Grill & Bar, On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina and Maggiano’s Little Italy • 1,550 restaurants Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  30. Comparable • DineEquity, Inc. (NYSE:DIN) • Market share: 1.9% • Industry Brand Names: Applebee’s Bar & Grill and IHOP • 2,000 Applebee’s restaurants • 1,500 IHOP restaurants • P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc. (NasdaqGS:PFCB) • Industry Brand Names: P.F. Chang's China Bistro and Pei Wei Asian Diner. • 201 full service Bistro restaurants • 168 quick casual Pei Wei restaurants Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  31. Comparable Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (Nasdaq: BWLD) 800 restaurants Ruby Tuesday Inc. (NYSE: RT) 746 restaurants Panera Bread Co. (Nasdaq: PNRA) 1,467 bakery-cafes Texas Roadhouse Inc. (Nasdaq: TXRH) 350 restaurants Data Source: Capital IQ

  32. Public Comps Analysis Data Source: Capital IQ

  33. Public Comps Analysis Data Source: Capital IQ

  34. Recommendation WACC=12.45%

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