Looking Ahead: 2018 and Beyond

1. Looking Ahead: • 2018 and Beyond

2. What are experts predicting as 2018 trends in localities, technology, consumer behavior, and the workplace? How can schools manage and maximize these trends?

3. Urban Trends Millennials and Xennials are skipping the suburbs, reinventing affordable “second cities.” Whereas artists once reclaimed cities, that has “broadened to startups, millennials and middle- class people who cannot afford to live in major cities.”Xennials, the microgeneration ages 30 to 45, are “combining a grown-up sensibility with core millennial priorities of health, experience, lifestyle and fun, offered by second cities,” such as Portland, Austin, Denver, and Detroit. • To consider: • Are you on top of demographic forecasts for your area? • Are microschools one way independent schools could become part of emerging neighborhoods? JWTIntelligence.com, The Future 100: 2018 (December 2017)

4. Urban Trends High costs to maintain highways/bridges lead to alternative urban planning ideas. “Writing in the New York Times, Steven Kurutz describes a progressive movement in the urban planning community to ‘tear down highways in cities and replace them with lower-speed streets that favor pedestrians and bicyclists and foster greater connectivity among neighborhoods and residents.’ Those who support this movement say it can revitalize cities and the lives of those in them.” • To consider: • • Will metro areas evolve from the behemoths they are today into a series of smaller self-contained communities, offering schools an opportunity to position themselves as community centers? Donna Orem, “A Closer Look: Emerging Trends for 2018 and Beyond,” Independent Ideas Blog (January 17, 2018)

5. Technology Trends Assistive technology is leveling the playing field for people with differences. “Technology advances are driving creative innovation to help people with disabilities navigate the world independently.” The app Be My Eyes “matches sighted volunteers with visually impaired people in need of assistance.” Aira uses mobile devices to connect blind users with visual interpreters. Big brands (Toyota, Disney, Listerine) are joining in the mix. Tech giants are pushing augmented reality (AR) into the mainstream. Gap’s dressing room app and Lowe’s store navigators enable customers to put themselves in mainstream retail stores. “‘Over time, I think [these features] will be as key as having a website,’ says Apple CEO Tim Cook.” JWTIntelligence.com, The Future 100:2018 (December 2017)

6. Technology Trends • To consider: • Are there applications of technology that could help your prospects (for example, international students who can’t visit) better envision themselves at your school? • Are there possibilities to help your students—and carve out a niche in the education marketplace—by offering assistive technology? • Is audio another way to share the thought-leadership of your faculty and leaders? Branded audio programming rising in popularity “Branding audio, whether through a podcast or voice assistant, presents new opportunities for brands to connect with their audience in a personal, intimate way.” In one example, eBay launched a podcast that focuses on starting a business; “in place of traditional ads, eBay portrayed a business finding success on eBay in each show.” JWTIntelligence.com, The Future 100: 2018 (December 2017)

7. Demographic Trends A call for a more nuanced understanding of intersectionality and representations of diversity “Many of our social justice problems like racism and sexism are often overlapping, creating multiple levels of social injustice…. “Organizations are under pressure to improve diversity and inclusion in their hiring, but the layered challenges associated with achieving this are coming to the fore.” More is also being expected from media representations of diversity. • To consider: • Take a fresh and broad look at how your marketing, student programming and policies, and hiring practices demonstrate diversity. JWTIntelligence.com, The Future 100: 2018 (December 2017)

8. Demographic Trends Less marriage and religion, more spirituality “Marriage will continue to decline. As women gain more economic power, fewer women will feel the need to marry…. “More spirit, less religion. The Pew Center reports that the fastest growing religion is no religion. People will continue to want … inspiration and comfort.... So not-deistic spiritual practices, for example, Buddhism and the related yoga, martial arts, and meditation should flourish.” Muslim population will grow 2x as fast as the overall world population from 2015 to 2060. “In the second half of this century, [Muslims] will likely surpass Christians as the world’s largest religious group.” Michael Lipka and Conrad Hackett, “Why Muslims Are the World’s Fastest-growing Religious Group,” Pew Research Center (April 6, 2017) Marty Nemko, “Predictions for 2018 and Beyond,” Psychology Today (November 13, 2017)

9. Generational Trends With new ideals & technology possibilities, millennials are carving out new types of careers. Microinfluencers are carrying out a form of transparent marketing that is “answering the consumer’s … desire to see products and services talked about and reviewed in a relatable context.” Building on consumers’ changing expectations for personalized service, there has been an explosion in the use of personal trainers, shoppers, and concierges. • To consider: • What form can workplace flexibility take in an independent school? • Are there already microinfluencers in your admissions marketing realm? Among your parent body? • Could independent schools be positioned as a personalized service? JWTIntelligence.com, The Future 100: 2018(December 2017)

10. Generational Trends Millennials feel the weight of their economic outlook. “Salaries have stagnated and entire sectors have cratered. At the same time, the cost of every prerequisite of a secure existence—education, housing and healthcare—has inflated into the stratosphere. From job security to the social safety net, all the structures that insulate us from ruin are eroding. And the opportunities leading to a middle-class life—the ones that boomers lucked into—are being lifted out of our reach.” • To consider: • Will the plight of millennial households put independent schools, as they are now structured, out of the reach of all but the wealthiest? Michael Hobbes, “Generation Screwed: Why Millennials Are Facing the Scariest Financial Future of Any Generation Since the Great Depression,” Huffington Post (December 2017)

11. Generational Trends Teens spend less time interacting in person with their friends. “The number of teens who get together with their friends every day has been cut in half in just fifteen years, with especially steep declines recently.” The decline is not because iGen’ers (born 1995 or later) study more—homework time hasn’t changed much—nor is it specific to one racial/ethnic or socioeconomic group. • To consider: • What roles do schools play in managing this trend? • How can we help teens manage their use of social media in healthier ways? • Are there opportunities to expand value-added programming for families in this area? Jean M. Twenge, “Why Teens Aren’t Partying Anymore,” Wired (December 27, 2017)

12. Consumer Trends New immersive thought-leadership events offer consumers experience, well-being, and self-improvement. “Airbnb Open, In Goop Health, WeWork Summer Camp, Dreamforce, and Live Your Best Life by Oprah are among the growing number of experiential, ticketed events that combine entertainment with mentorship, community building, discussion panels, retail and more.” • To consider: • Are you maximizing the thought leadership of your leaders and faculty as a way to increase your school’s presence in the community? JWTIntelligence.com, The Future 100:2018 (December 2017)

13. Workplace Trends Talent shortages, skill development, and technological advances influence many of the 2018 workplace trends. • “Upward pressure on wages” dueto talent shortages • “Focus on the employee experience will increase” to recruit (and retain) the talent companies need. • “Growing emphasis on flexibility in schedules and location” • “More companies will hire for soft skills and culture fit.” • “Higher percentages of contingent workers…with as much as 61 percent of the workforce choosing agile careers [temporary, contract, consultant, or freelance work] by 2019.” • “Sexual harassment claims will grow exponentially.” • The Herman Trend Alert, “2018 Workforce-Workplace Forecast” (December 27, 2017)

14. Workplace Trends … and “platform cooperatives” emerging A “collaborative” economy “Spurred by new tech platforms and changing values… [a] ‘sharing economy’ is emerging.… In K-12 education, sharing through technology platforms, online communities, and open-source or low-cost lesson plans has made homeschooling appealing to a broad array of families.” Donna Orem, “The Workforce Outlook,” NAIS Trendbook 2017-2018 (2017) Platform cooperatives are emerging in an economy fueled by freelancers. Built on the concept of co-ops, they “leverage platform technology for scale and sustainability…. Stakeholders—users, employees, and other members—govern the company and share in the success… Co-ops work in a variety of sectors.” MJ Kaplan, “Voices From the Field: Can Co-ops Displace the Gig Economy?” Nonprofit Quarterly (December 21, 2017)

15. Workplace Trends A move to “more valid” hiring practices “Resumes, interviews, and references are notoriously invalid predictors of job performance.… So we’ll see more simulation-centric, asynchronous interviewing: In the comfort of one’s home… mainly simulations of the job’s common difficult tasks.” Marty Nemko, “Predictions for 2018 and Beyond,” Psychology Today (November 13, 2017) • To consider: • Are your hiring practices and offerings attracting the talent you need? • Are your practices bias-free? • When new jobs open up, are you thinking broadly about what will be needed 5 and 10 years from now? • Have you reviewed your sexual harassment prevention training and policies? • What kinds of challenges will the sharing economy present to your school’s value proposition?

16. Changes to the Tax Code: The Doubling of the Standardized Deduction Options to suggest include “bunching” & use of donor-advised funds Impact of change on charitable giving “Giving for current needs will be depressed … due to a predicted surge in donor-advised fund giving at the end of 2017, as well as a similar surge in direct donations in response to new charitable tax deduction regulations. Many operating charities will see this as a permanent loss, but the true effect of the tax legislation is only likely to become clear in 2019.”Ruth McCambridge and Steve Dubb, “NPQ Presents 7 Trends of 2017 and 11 Predictions,” Nonprofit Quarterly (January 2, 2018) • Pooling gifts in certain years (“bunching”) can maximize tax savings. • Donor-advised funds are “like personal private foundations” and “allow contributors to donate money and take a tax deduction in the same year, then pay the money to … charities over time.” Ann Carrns, “How to Write Off Donations Under the New Tax Plan: Consider ‘Bunching,’” New York Times (December 20, 2017)

17. Changes to the Tax Code: Use of 529 Plans for Private School Tuition New code allows for $10,000 in tax-free 529 account withdrawals for K-12. • To consider: • Are you up to date on how changes are being implemented by your state’s 529 plans? • Are your business and financial aid staff being supported in implementing any new changes? • Be careful not to engage in tax advice with families. • Familiarize yourself with the 529 plans within your state, including the deductibility for contributions. • See if there are any updates related to the use of 529 accounts to pay for independent school tuition and reach out directly to your plan if not. • Revisit your documentation of payments for tuition and make sure it is regular and clear so those paying for tuition have clear documentation if they need it. Debra Wilson, “New 529 Plan Legislation,” NAIS (Jan. 2018)

18. Trends in Nonprofits • Among trends expected for nonprofits are cuts to federal programs and increasing role of states in innovation. • “There will be some deep cuts attempted to federal government programs for the very vulnerable….” • “States will continue to replace feds as agenda-setters… [and] will declare themselves as independent centers of initiative and creativity.” • “Issues of racial justice, both internal to nonprofits and in our external environments, will remain exposed, as new approaches are explored.” • To consider: • How will youbolster civic education in your student bodies? • Can independent schools take a role in their states’ innovationprograms? • What role can schools play in supporting the most vulnerable in society? Ruth McCambridge and Steve Dubb, “NPQ Presents 7 Trends of 2017 and 11 Predictions for 2018,” Nonprofit Quarterly (January 2, 2018)

19. Trends in Higher Ed • Among trends expected for higher ed are changes to programming and physical space. • “Nonprofit and for-profit providers working together.”Legislation may make more programs eligible for federal funding…opening the door to hybrid/collaborativemodels like Purdue-Kaplan. • “U.S. higher education as a top international export.”Microcampuses will be one way to export programs abroad, especially as the U.S. political environment remains uncertain. • “Re-imagining physical campus space.” “As teaching delivery models have evolved, so have the spaces needed for learning.” Universities are actively conducting space studies. • “More unbundling and microcredentials.”As free community college proposals take off, four-year institutions will aim to attract students not looking for full degree programs. Autumn Arnett, “5 Trends Poised to Shake Up Higher Education,” EducationDIVE.com

20. Trends in Higher Ed Moody’s downgrades higher ed’s financial outlook, as expenses are expected to outpace growth. “Overall the sector’s expenses will rise by 4 percent…. But less than 20 percent of public, four-year institutions will see their revenue increase by more than 3 percent. More than half of private institutions will achieve growth of at least 3 percent. Cuts to federal financial aid programs or even funding growth that fails to keep up with inflation would exacerbate higher education’s problems.” • To consider: • Have youreviewed your school’s physical space in light of changing trends? • If independent schools are college-preparatory, are we preparing kids for new kinds of college? • What is your school’s realistic, long-range financial outlook? Paul Fain, “Moody’s Downgrades Higher Education’s Outlook,” Inside Higher Ed (Dec. 6, 2017)

21. References • JWTIntelligence.com, The Future 100: 2018 • Donna Orem, “A Closer Look: Emerging Trends for 2018 and Beyond,” Independent Ideas Blog • Marty Nemko, “Predictions for 2018 and Beyond,” Psychology Today • Michael Lipka and Conrad Hackett, “Why Muslims Are the World’s Fastest-growing Religious Group,” Pew Research Center • Michael Hobbes, “Generation Screwed: Why Millennials Are Facing the Scariest Financial Future of Any Generation Since the Great Depression,” Huffington Post • Jean M. Twenge, “Why Teens Aren’t Partying Anymore,” Wired • The Herman Trend Alert, “2018 Workforce-Workplace Forecast” • Donna Orem, “The Workforce Outlook,” NAIS Trendbook 2017-2018 • MJ Kaplan, “Voices From the Field: Can Co-ops Displace the Gig Economy?” Nonprofit Quarterly • Ruth McCambridge and Steve Dubb, “NPQ Presents 7 Trends of 2017 and 11 Predictions for 2018,” Nonprofit Quarterly • Ann Carrns, “How to Write Off Donations Under the New Tax Plan: Consider ‘Bunching,’” New York Times • Debra Wilson, “New 529 Plan Legislation,” NAIS (Jan. 2018) • Autumn Arnett, “5 Trends Poised to Shake Up Higher Education in 2018,” EducationDive.com • Paul Fain, “Moody’s Downgrades Higher Education’s Outlook,” Inside Higher Ed