Climate Change Adaptation: The 21st Century Challenge

1. Climate Change Adaptation

2. The 21st Century Climate Challenge “One generation plants a tree; the next generation gets the shade.” Chinese Proverb

3. The21st Century climate challenge • Defining dangerous – keeping below a 2 degree increase in temperature • Three distinctive characteristics – it is cumulative, the effects are irreversible and it is global • Common but differentiated responsibility – The carbon footprint

4. Some people walk more lightly than others The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility

5. Rich countries deeper carbon footprint • The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO2 than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million) • The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper footprint than the whole sub-Saharan Africa (720 million people) • The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries …

6. How many planets? • The 21st century carbon budget amounts to 1,456 Gt or around 14.5 Gt CO2 per year • Total CO2 emissions in 2004 stood at 29 Gt • If every person living in the developing world would have the same carbon footprint than an average person in the US or Canada, we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2

7. The Global carbon account • Establishing a 21st Century carbon budget • Defining a sustainable emission’s pathway • The problem of inertia– the case for adaptation

8. Five human development tipping points • Reduced agricultural productivity • Heightened water insecurity • Increased exposure to extreme weather events • Collapse of ecosystems • Increased health risks

9. Climate shocks: Risk and vulnerability In an unequal world “The countries most vulnerable are least able to protect themselves. They also contribute least to the global emissions of greenhouse gases. Without action they will pay a high price for the actions of others.” Kofi Annan

10. Disaster risk is skewed towards developing countries • 1 in 19 people are affected in developing countries • The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in developed countries

11. Crop Yield Change Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO2 are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice. Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

12. What does Pakistan Face? • Key sectors, water and agriculture at risk • Increased variability of monsoon • Increased risks of floods, droughts, tropical storms and forest fires etc. • Severe water stress in arid and semi-arid regions • HKH Glaciers melt due to global warming and seasonal variability • Reduction in capacity of natural resources • Large reduction of productivity of both warm and cold water fish

13. Case for Adaptation • Pakistan is most vulnerable to the climatic change because: • Large part of the economy is based on agriculture • Low technological and scientific base and have limited access to knowledge • Low capacity to adapt to change • Limited financial and institutional capacities

14. Some Recent Events In Pakistan Attributable To Climate Change In Pakistan • Severe urban storm flooding in Lahore, due to 500 mm rainfall in 24 hours on 12 July, 1996 • History’s worst drought in Pakistan in 1998-2001 • Severe cyclonic Storm hit the coastal areas of Pakistan and India in 1999. • 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during10 hours in July, 2001 • Disastrous cyclone hit the coastal areas of Balochistan in July, 2007

15. Adapting To The Inevitable: National Action And International Cooperation

16. The National Challenge • There are no blueprints for successful climate change adaptation • So far, adaptation planning has been a fringe activity in developing countries • Adaptation related work remains under-financed, poorly coordinated and weakly managed • Building the coping capacity and resilience among poorest segments of society is limited to rhetoric revolving around MDGs and pro-poor growth

17. Four “I”s for Successful Adaptation Planning • “Information” for effective planning • “Infrastructure” for climate-proofing • “Insurance” for social risk management and poverty reduction • “Institutions” for disaster risks management

18. “Information” for Effective Planning • In planning for adaptation to climate change, information is power • Countries lacking the capacity and resources to track meteorological patterns, forecast impacts and assess risk are vulnerable to extensive damages

19. “Infrastructure” for Climate-proofing • Climate change has important implications for planning of infra-structural investments • Rising sea levels, increased exposure to floods and higher temperatures all affect the viability of investments in infra-structure development • US $ 1 invested in pre-disaster risk management activities in developing countries can prevent US $ 7 in losses

20. “Insurance” for Social Protection • Social protection safety nets for the poor needs to be strengthened in following areas: • Employment programme (cash for work for quick recovery) • Cash transfers to the marginalized for access to basic services • Crisis-related transfers to restore livelihoods

21. “Institutions” for Disaster RiskManagement • DRM integrated in local government structure • Civil society organizations integral part of DRM strategies and information sharing • Central and regional governments need to be fully resourced to deal with potential disasters risks

22. http://hdr.undp.org