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Direct Influence of China's Urbanization on Emissions and Health

This study explores the direct influence of China's urbanization on emissions from residential, commercial, and transportation sectors, as well as its effects on human health and climate. The study also predicts future urban expansion and population density.

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Direct Influence of China's Urbanization on Emissions and Health

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  1. 17th GEIA Conference Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, Nov. 18-20. 2015 Direct Influence ofChina’sUrbanization on Emissions from Residential,Commercial and Transportation Sectors Shu Tao and Huizhong Shen College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University

  2. 60 1600 Rural population 1400 Urban population 45 1200 Urbanization rate 1000 Population, million Urbanization Rate, % 30 800 600 15 400 200 0 0 2004 2009 1989 1999 1954 1959 1969 1979 1984 1994 1949 1964 1974 Urbanization in china Rapid Urbanization in China Urbanization Rate Has Increased from 18% in 1978 to 52% in 2012 CSCIEAS, 2013, The State of Chinese Cities, 2012/2013

  3. Hypothesis and assumptions Hypothesis of This Study Urbanization causes significant changes in energy use and emissions Such changes affect human heath and climate consequently Assumptions Industrialization is the drive, rather than consequence of the urbanization Only direct influences of population migration on emission activities are included Sectors related are residential/commercial, and transportation (passenger’s car,buses) CSCIEAS, 2013, The State of Chinese Cities, 2012/2013

  4. Effects on Health Changes in Population Changes in Energy Use Changes in Emissions Changes in Exposure Urbanization Effects on Climate APPROACH From Urbanization to Health and Climate Effects Boundary Conditions time span 1980 – 2012 – 2030 spatial resolution 1/120 degree Pollutants/GHGCO2, PM2.5 etc.

  5. Future Prediction Urban expansion, 2030 Seto et al., 2012 Population density, 2030 Landsat, 2000 Major cities,2000 Zhao et al., 2015 Nighttime light, 2000 NOAA, 2015 Nighttime light, 2000 NOAA, 2015 Threshold, Shanghai Urban mask, 2000 National census, 2000 Nat Bureau Stat, 2015 Population density, 2000 Population projection DESA, UN, 2015 characterization of population change Geographical Distribution of Population Density in the Past

  6. Changes in population density Change in Urban Population increased from 191m in 1980 to 670m in 2010 will increase to 999m in 2030 populations in Shanghai 20.6m in 2010  26.0m in 2030 populations in Beijing 16.0m in 2010  25.0m in 2030 populations in Guangzhou 9.9m in 2010  12.4m in 2030

  7. Residential & commercial energy consumption Residential/commercial Energy Modeling electricity, thermal, oil-gas, solid fuel logEcap =  +  {1 - exp[ -  (GDPcap-zcf)]} + Pi Pi = hdd, price, floor space, etc Transportation logEcap = alog (Incomecap) + b Rateurbanization + c Future Projection

  8. EMISSION FACTORS Emission Sources coal, oil, gas, and biomass in residential/commercial sector electricity/thermal from coal, oil, and gas fired power stations gasoline and diesel for motor vehicles Emission Factors either constant or time-dependent

  9. Emissions Time trends: per capita emission CO2 and others

  10. EMISSION DENSITY – CO2 Frequency distribution Geographical distribution

  11. EMISSION DENSITY – PM2.5 Frequency distribution Geographical distribution

  12. MODELING Atmospheric Chemical Transport Modeling WRF-Chem with and without urbanization Exposure Modeling downscaling Relative Contributions exposure induced from emissions from all sectors based on highly sectorially resolved PKU series emission inventories http://inventory.pku.edu.cn/

  13. FINANCIAL SUPPORT NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION OF CHINA ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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