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A Revolution in Survey Research Karol Krotki Washington Statistical Society and DC-AAPOR Washington, DC 20 May, 2009. RTI International is a trade name of Research Triangle Institute.
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A Revolution in Survey Research Karol Krotki Washington Statistical Society and DC-AAPOR Washington, DC 20 May, 2009 RTI International is a trade name of Research Triangle Institute 701 13th Street, NW ■ Suite 750 ■ Washington, DC, USA 20005 Phone 202-728-2485 Fax 202-728-2095 e-mail kkrotki@rti.org
Challenges – Cell Phones • Close to 20% household are cell-phone-only (CPO) • Mapping no longer 1-1 • One individual can own several numbers • Several individuals can share the same number • More difficult to link number to geographical location • Data collection • Safety • Compensation • Separate frame
Challenges – Response Rates • OMB used to insist on 80% • Now 60% is difficult to achieve • Decrease in response rates results in increase in survey costs • Decrease in response rates leads in increased risk of nonresponse bias
Challenges – New Technologies • Traditional approaches • Landline phone endangered species • In-person too expensive • Internet/Web • Smart phones • Other
Future Directions – Multiple Frames • Cell phone and landline phone • Address lists (see below) and phone lists • Internet data bases • Commercial lists • Administrative data/large data bases • External sources of information • Disclosure control/confidentiality • Data linkage
Future Directions – Address-Based Sample • Complete list of addresses • Process • Select sample of addresses • Match as many addresses with telephone numbers as possible • Use multiple modes (mail, telephone, in-person, internet) to collect data • Nielsen • Moved from telephone to ABS last November • “RDD is dead”
Future Directions – Internet Surveys • Coverage and selection bias • Harris – large base • Frame bias • Membership bias • “Professional respondents” • Is it possible to model to overcome shortcomings? • Knowledge Networks
Future Directions – Multi-Mode • Offer respondents a choice • Increase cooperation • Select optimal mode as a function of: • survey topic • target population(s) • However, beware of mode effects • Adjust mode during field period
Future Directions – GIS • Frame building • Sample selection • Screening • Data collection
Future Directions – Rolling Samples • Increase sample size by combining samples over time • E.g., American Community Survey (ACS) • Sampling and sampling errors more complex
Future Directions – Nonresponse Bias • Gauge survey quality using nonresponse bias rather than response rates • Correlation need not be high • Challenges • How to measure bias? • How to standardize measurement process?
Future Directions – Responsive Design • Adaptive/responsive surveys • Requires multi-mode, flexible approach • Requires monitoring during data collection • Adjust strategies “mid-stream” • Cumulating knowledge • Sampling • Interviewing
Conclusions • Surveys of the future will be more complex • Need to be flexible • Need to be creative • Future looks very interesting, albeit not very clear