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A minimal Barents Sea ecosystem model from first principles. Benjamin Planque and Ulf Lindstrøm

A minimal Barents Sea ecosystem model from first principles. Benjamin Planque and Ulf Lindstrøm. The Barents Sea. A dynamic stochastic food web model. Food Web Stochastic. ?. ?. ?. ?. ?. ?. ?. ?. ?. Stochasticity in prey-predator functional relationships?. Prey consumption (g/day).

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A minimal Barents Sea ecosystem model from first principles. Benjamin Planque and Ulf Lindstrøm

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  1. A minimal Barents Sea ecosystem model from first principles.Benjamin Planque and Ulf Lindstrøm

  2. The Barents Sea

  3. A dynamic stochastic food web model • Food Web • Stochastic ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

  4. Stochasticity in prey-predator functional relationships? Prey consumption (g/day) Edda Johannesen. Pers. com. Prey biomass (g/nm2)

  5. A dynamic stochastic food web model • Food Web • Stochastic • Constrained • Mass Balanced • Satiety and inertia ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Mullon et al. 2009. A minimal model of the variability of marine ecosystems. Fish and Fisheries, 10: 115-131.

  6. Model Principles: Mass-balance ‘Other’ losses Sp 1 Sp 2 Trophic flow Export Import Metabolic losses

  7. Model Principles 2. Mass-balance ‘Other’ losses (1-EE1) (1-EE2) F2,2 Sp 1 Sp 2 Trophic flow Export Import B1 B2 F1,2 E2 I1 γ1 γ2 Metabolic losses

  8. Model Principles: Additional Constraints • Satiety • Inertia Too high abundance Too low time

  9. The minimal Barents Sea model 6 trophospecies 12 fluxes 1 import Initial biomasse 4 coeficients For each species Minke whales Cod Capelin Euph. Cop. Phytopl.

  10. Results 1. Time series • Key graphs for the results (3 slides)

  11. Johannesen et al. In prep.

  12. Results 2. bottom up & top –down controls ?

  13. Results 3. trophic functional relationships

  14. Results 4. Diet fractions

  15. Conclusions • Stochastic model with a few constraints… • Mass-balance, satiation, inertia • …and few parameters • EE, Metabolic efficiency, Lifespan, Satiation, import, Export • Simple, Fast and Transparent • Simulates realistic ecosystem features • Set a reference for expected ecosystem properties under a minimal set of assumptions

  16. Epilogue:decadal fluctuations in top-down/bottom-up control Bottom-up Top-down Johannesen et al. In prep.

  17. Epilogue:decadal fluctuations in top-down/bottom-up control Bottom-up Top-down

  18. Thank you Poster: S6-P2

  19. On going work • In-depth testing • Spatial compartments • Age-structured populations • Known functional relationships

  20. The Master equation Ecotrophic efficiency Export Transition Matrix Outflux to predators Biomass at t-1 Influx of preys Metabolic efficiency Import

  21. Barents Sea model coefficients

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