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Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range

Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range. A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to describe the results of forest succession and fire behavior modeling. Jane Kapler Smith USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Modeling Institute

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Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range

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  1. Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to describe the results of forest succession and fire behavior modeling. Jane Kapler Smith USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Modeling Institute 20 May 2002 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  2. 1999 c. 1903 Forests change. More time… more (& bigger) trees. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  3. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  4. now future ???? 1896 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  5. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  6. To understand Forest Change: A Mathematical Model “Forest Vegetation Simulator” Forest succession, fuels, & fire Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  7. future? c. 1903 1999 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  8. “Model”? Models help us understand… and predict Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  9. Mathematical model: • Use data to find patterns from the past • Understand the present • Predict the future Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  10. May 1979 “Mathematical model”? Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  11. How do forests change over time? • How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? • How do our choices influence forests… and fires? Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  12. Ponderosa pine in Colorado Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  13. Cheesman Reservoir: Historic data on Ponderosa Pine Forests Thanks to: Merrill Kaufmann, Paula Fornwalt, Laurie Huckaby, and Jason Stoker, Rocky Mtn. Research Station Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  14. How do forests change over time? • How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? • How can our choices influence forests… and fires? Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  15. 0.5 inch The players: ponderosa pine… Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  16. 3+ inches Fire resistant buds & bark at 7 years old Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  17. 0.1 to 0.2 inch … and Douglas-fir Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  18. Reproduces well even in shade Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  19. 1899 2000 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  20. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  21. c. 1903 1896 1899 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  22. Modeled examples: Open-18% Medium-46% Dense-70% Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  23. Data Data 2000 Modeled ~1896 2000 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  24. 1900 2000 Modeled Patches on the Landscape Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  25. 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Modeled Succession: Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  26. 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  27. 1980 1970 1990 2000 1900 1900 1910 1920 1930 1960 1940 1950 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  28. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  29. 1900 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Modeled Succession Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  30. 1900 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 “ladder fuels” Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  31. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  32. 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  33. 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  34. How do Front Range forests change over time? • Increased crown cover • Increased number of small trees • Small Douglas-firs outnumber all other species and all other sizes. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  35. How do forests change over time? • How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? • How can our choices influence forests… and fires? Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  36. Surface fire Passive crown fire Active crown fire All fires are not equal Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  37. Data Data 2000 Modeled ~1896 2000 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  38. Modeling Cheesman Historic Fires: Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  39. Cheesman Historic Fires Again Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  40. 1899 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  41. 1900 2000 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  42. Model fire behavior: • One patch of forest • 1900 (open crown cover) • vs. 2000 (medium to dense crown cover) Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  43. 2000 Modeled fire spread: 5 mph winds 1900 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  44. 2000 5 mph winds again 1900 Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  45. Passive crown fire Surface fire Active crown fire Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  46. 0 60 10 20 30 40 50 Wind, mph Open (1900) Dense (2000) Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire Surface & Passive Crowning Active Crowning Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  47. 40 mph wind After fire– modeled view from above 1900 2000 5 mph wind Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  48. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  49. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

  50. Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

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