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Curso de Lagunas Costeras Alice Newton Universidad de Algarve, Portugal

Curso de Lagunas Costeras Alice Newton Universidad de Algarve, Portugal Universidad EAFIT, Abril 8-23, 2008. 22 Abril. Cambio global y las lagunas costeras. Escenarios futuros. Cambio Global y las lagunas costeras. Coastal lagoons and Earth System Science.

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Curso de Lagunas Costeras Alice Newton Universidad de Algarve, Portugal

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  1. Curso de Lagunas Costeras Alice Newton Universidad de Algarve, Portugal Universidad EAFIT, Abril 8-23, 2008

  2. 22 Abril • Cambio global y las lagunas costeras. • Escenarios futuros

  3. Cambio Global y las lagunas costeras

  4. Coastal lagoons and Earth System Science Coastal zones and lagoons play a key role in Earth System functioning Provide a significant contribution to the life support systems of most societies. Goods and services derived from coastal systems depend strongly on multiple trans-boundary interactions with the land, atmosphere, open ocean and sea bottom. Human habitation, food production, growing tourism and transportation accelerate the exploitation of the coastal landscape and resources.

  5. Global change and coastal lagoons • Changes in ecosystem function and biodiversity • Changes in biogeochemical cycles • Changes in sea level and morphological modifications • Changes in sediment supply and erosion • Changes in population, urbanization and tourism • Changes in use of lagoons: salt and fisheries, aquaculture • Changes in economy and ecosystem services

  6. Climate Change and the European Water Dimension A Report to the European Water Directors 2005 Lagoons are sentinel systems Coastal lagoons are fragile due to direct water draining form highly inhabited areas, their shallowness and low water volume to surface ratio. As a consequence there is a high probability that among marine ecosystems coastal lagoons will be the first to react to consequences of changes in climatic trends (Esenreich, 2005).

  7. Monitoring and data sets • Long time-series of data • Historical data sets • Rare but valuable • Useful in hindcast scenarios • Heterogeneous meta-data remains problem • Accessibility issues

  8. Ringkøbing Fjord, North Sea, Dk1636

  9. Ringkøbing Fjord, North Sea, Dk1768

  10. Nymindegab, Dk

  11. Vulnerability and risk • sea-level change • coastal erosion • storms • tsunamis Vulnerability maps

  12. Vulnerable and valuable ecosystems Lagoons are valuable ecosystems, provide valuable ecosystem services and support valuable activities such as tourism, aquaculture and fisheries. Lagoons throughout the latitudes are subject to multiple pressures

  13. Lagoons are very vulnerable to global, natural and societal changes In particular: • Erosion-deposition • Sea-level change • Changes in the water and biogeochemical cycles • Human settlement and exploitation of natural resources

  14. Coastal lagoons are vulnerable systems Global typology (polar regions cropped) • High population density (>60/km2) • High cropland use (>10%)

  15. Venice lagoon is the best known case study of sea level rise Flooding of Piazza San Marco

  16. Sea level trend at Trieste (open) and Venice (green), 1896-1996. Source: Carbognin L, CNR, Venice, Italy, and Rafael Bras, MIT

  17. Annual distribution of exceptional high water events, 1923-1996. Source: Centre for tidal forecasting of the Venice Municipality and Rafael Bras, MIT

  18. Flooding in St. Mark’s Piazza

  19. Acqua Alta Rising sea level has led to increased flooding of Venice

  20. Acqua Alta doesn’t deter tourists

  21. Brenta River Brenta Canal Venice Water diversion reduced sediment delivery to Venice Lagoon Venice circa 1500 Source: Consorzio Venezia Nuova

  22. Management responses Source: Chiozzotto and Drusiani, IWA Conference 2002

  23. A massive engineering project has been initiated for storm surge protection

  24. Escenarios futuros

  25. Why are coastal lagoons an “issue” for the 21st C? • What is the prognosis for coastal lagoons? • What have we learned about coastal lagoons? • What do we still need to work on?

  26. Types of Scenarios • Global change: eg rate of sea-level rise, storm frequency, erosion/deposition rates • Futures: business as usual, industrial development, green “eco-scenario” • Modeling: increase pig farming, build sewage treatment plant, grant aquaculture concessions

  27. What is the scenario? Santa Marta: • Industrial and port development “full speed ahead” • Tourist and golf resorts • Aquaculture and mineral extraction • Eco-tourism paradise, no development

  28. Scenarios Cartagena? “Your” lagoon

  29. Who are the actors? • Scientists? • Stakeholders? • Decision makers and managers?

  30. Stakeholders

  31. Decision makers

  32. Scientists

  33. 21stC Prognosis for coastal lagoons? • Coastal lagoons are ephemeral, dynamic systems on a geological time-scale Consequences of climate change and sea-level rise? • We will loose some coastal lagoons, some very soon, e.g. Chesil fleet in the UK • New coastal lagoons will form in flooded coastal plains • Furthermore, what are the consequences of changes in the biogeochemical cycles ? • Increased urbanization of the coastal zone?

  34. Scenarios developed together with the regional authorities eg Sacca di Goro, Ferrara Province, Italy • Scenarios (consider main economical activities and DPSIR scheme): • Extension of clam farming areas • Simulation with different initial clam densities • Simulation with different seeding levels • Simulation with and without macroalgae • Natural variability/Climatic changes (wet/normal/dry years) • Human activities in the watershed (variation of nutrient loads: lower/normal/higher )

  35. Examples of management scenarios Ringkøbing Fjord, Dk Scenario 1 : Areas of priority - identification of sub-areas of the basin where the highest effect of management intervention is obtained in terms of N-load reduction to coastal waters. Scenario 2: A targeted 35% reduction in nitrate loads by means of implementing the national program, Environmentally Sound Agricultural Production'( MVJ) (7000 ha), catch crops (5000 ha), reduced discharge from pump drained areas, restored wetlands (4000 ha). Scenario 3: A targeted 50 % reduction in nitrate loads by means of all scenario 2 elements and an additional reduction in animal stock (29.000 animal units) in selected areas of the basin.

  36. From science to management and back to science • Science, i.e. ecological status, biogeochemical cycles and fluxes, climate change, etc. • Science for management, e.g. assessing environmental flows, sustainable yields, etc. • Science of management, e.g. modeling human impacts and land uses, resource optimisation • Management based on science, e.g. wetland restoration, lagoon sustainability, • Managing competing demands of society – policy and politics Goal: integrating science in management

  37. The sustainability challenge GEOMORPHIC SUSTAINABILTY (relative sea level rise, sediment deficit) ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY (pollution, fragmentation, global warming) SOCIOECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY (overexploitation, land uses, policy) Goal : integrating the three levels of sustainability

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