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Preventing Carbon Lock-in

Preventing Carbon Lock-in. David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005. Investments Today Drive Impacts Tomorrow. Temperature forcing drives impacts Concentrations drive forcing Emissions drive concentrations Investments drive emissions.

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Preventing Carbon Lock-in

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  1. Preventing Carbon Lock-in David G. Hawkins, NRDC Robert H. Williams, Princeton January 2005

  2. Investments Today Drive Impacts Tomorrow • Temperature forcing drives impacts • Concentrations drive forcing • Emissions drive concentrations • Investments drive emissions

  3. Carbon Deficit Spending—Do the Math • Energy carbon emissions in year 2000 = 6.3 billion metric tons • Removal to oceans, soils, trees = 3.1 billion metric tons • Net buildup in air = 3.2 billion metric tons

  4. Emissions Drive Concentrations Billion tonnes Carbon 1900-2100 ppm

  5. The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC) Spent Remaining Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization

  6. Carbon Lock-inNew Fossil Units 2003-2030 Lifetime Carbon Coal = 145 GtC Gas = 63 GtC Oil = 2 GtC Source: IEA, WEO2004

  7. New Fossil Plant EmissionsRival Historic Totals Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004

  8. New Coal Build by Decade 670 500 221 Source: IEA, WEO 2004 Incremental new coal capacity by decade

  9. Fund CCS for New Coal in Developing Countries • Industrialized countries (Annex II, OECD, G8, G8+) agree to finance incremental costs of IGCC with CCS for 10 years (2011-2020) in developing countries. • Ramp in coverage: 2011=20% of new build; 20% increase each year. • Cover full incremental cost of electricity (levelized capital and operating costs) for IGCC/CCS to 2020.

  10. 251 GW out of 306 GW uses CCS with fund New Coal Capacity from IEA, WEO 2004

  11. Costs of CCS Fund • Levelized discounted costs = $6.2 billion/yr • Compare 2003 G7 ODA = $50 billion • But compare GEF = $3 billion for four yrs. Costs derived from Foster Wheeler Study for IEA GHG Programme, May 2003

  12. What About Industrialized Countries? Applying the same CCS deployment schedule in industrialized countries results in 160GW of CCS capacity (out of 200GW coal forecast) with added costs of $3.9 billion per year.

  13. Costs in Context • $6.2 billion per yr = 0.5 mills/kwh if applied to OECD generation. ($10.1 billion global program = 0.8 mills/kwh) • Combining CCS fund with efficiency initiative can reduce costs and emissions more. If demand growth is cut from 3%/yr to 2.5%, CCS LDC program costs drop to $5.1 billion per yr. • Enables avoidance of 36 billion tonnes carbon emissions just from initial covered capacity; much more with spillover benefits.

  14. Warming Won’t Wait. Will We?

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