תרחישים ככלי בחיזוי טכנולוגי-חברתי

1. תרחישים ככלי בחיזוי טכנולוגי-חברתי אהרון האופטמן היחידה לחיזוי טכנולוגי וחברתי, אוניברסיטת ת"א haupt@post.tau.ac.il www.notes.co.il/hauptman

2. Not predicting a pre-determined future, but exploring alternative futures that can be shaped by human actions

3. "העתיד המפתיע ביותר הוא זה שאין בו הפתעות" הרמן קאהן

4. Low-likelihood, high-impact events “futurequakes”: As earthquakes – surprising, but not impossible Jan 2012

6. Where there is a sufficiently large number of wild cards, the probability that no wild card will occurtends to zero.” In the long run, wild cards will shape the future! K. Steinmüller (2003) If there are 1000 such events and the probability of each one happening is 1 in 100,000, then there is a pretty good chance that one will occur, and fairly soon! P. Shwartz and D. Randall (2007)

7. DENIAL “Denial is a powerful form of cognitive bias…. can stifle creativity and make companies and nations susceptible to STRATEGIC SURPRISE” P. Shwartz & D. Randall, in “Blindside: How to anticipate forcing events and Wild Cards in global politics”, F. Fukuyama (ed), 2007

8. “Well-crafted scenarios can help organizations that suffer from denial about future change to rehearse it in advance…” “encourage management teams to “think the unthinkable”, anticipate surprises, and try out new possibilities.” P. Shwartz & D. Randall, in “Blindside: How to anticipate forcing events and Wild Cards in global politics”, F. Fukuyama (ed), 2007

9. Foresight of Evolving Security Threats Posed by Emerging Technologies www.festos.org

10. FESTOS Horizon Scanning & Foresight “intelligence about the future” and policy implications • ~ 80 "potentially threatening" technologies in six fields: ICT, Nano, Bio, Robotics, New Materials, and Converging Technologies • Threat assessment of 33 selected technologies (international expert survey) • Narrative scenarios (focus on Wild Cards) • Prevention, Control of Knowledge? • Preliminary policy implications (focus on future R&D)

11. FESTOS Foresight Security threats of emerging technologies • Sufficiently maturity to be used in practise (when?) • Severity of threat • Easiness of malicious use • Likelihood to actually pose a threat, in different time-frames (till 2035+) • Which societal spheres would be threatened (people, infrastructures, economy, environment, political systems and values) • Wild-Card (narrative) scenarios

12. FESTOS scenarios process

13. FESTOS Scenarios Process FESTOS WP4

14. Futures Wheel

15. Source: Glenn [1994] FESTOS WP4

16. FESTOS Narrative Scenarios • Describe future threats and their impacts. • Interrelation with social, political, technological, and environmental aspects make complex threats perceivable. • Thinking about possible futures and their societal & technological contexts •  Assessment of threat potential and impact •  Possible interactions among technologies, individuals & groups •  Identification of cascade and side effects of an event •  Identification of approaches to countermeasures

17. Narrative scenarios: • Tool for transferring the complexity of a technology-driven threat to a real life situation in the future • Encourage individual imagination and ideas that emerge when reading the texts. • Challenge conventional thinking • Support for the understanding of alternative futures • Emotional identification with characters • Suspension of disbelief

18. Construction of a “Wild Card” scenario Programmable matter Molecular Manufacturing Narrative Scenario: “at the flee market” Internet of Things

19. Construction of a “Wild Card” scenario Programmable matter Molecular Manufacturing Narrative Scenario: “at the flee market” “Now it’s gotten into the hairdryer! ….The device had started to ooze like a block of Camembert. A couple of metallic parts protruded from the heap, and the small sign that said “Made by NanoTrust, Inc. China…” Internet of Things

20. Scenario 3: At the Flea Market Everyday intelligent nanotechnology-based products can be set to self-destruct with a wireless signal. “Security climate” : (Background society/political features) Strong non-governmental actors, Corruption/ organised crime, weak government, weak legislation/ laws, strong local structures, low trust in governmental structures, high interpersonal trust, small size of country, high population density, average natural resources, average education system, monopoly on the media by the government...

21. Programmable Matter Materials programmed to self-assemble, alter their shape and properties, and then disassemble - in response to user input or autonomous sensing. Known also as “InfoChemistry” or “Claytronics” this emerging field combines chemistry, information theory, and programmability to build information directly into materials. • Potential threats: • Ordinary items programmed to transform into a weapon. • A perfect camouflage of any object. • Reconfigurable tools with perfect performance, including weapons, readily adaptable to changing conditions and mission requirements

23. Programmable Matter (cont.) Societal Spheres Threatened: • Future R&D? • Detection of non-metal weapons and other dangerous objects • Countermeasures, e.g. "self destruction" code/signal in case of unauthorised use • New techniques to cope with perfect camouflage.

24. Scenario 1: Cyber-Insects attack! Swarms of cyber-insects attack people and animals. “Mommy, Daddy, the synsects stung me!” Julie ran into the house in a fluster. Martin, who just sat down to deal with the administrative stuff for his organic farm, looked over at his eleven-year-old daughter. On her face and all over her arms were red marks that looked like mosquito bites. “What happened?” “Security climate” : (Background society/political features) Green ideology is the standard, democratic, high level of access to technology, conservative, decentralized, high trust level, strong control of emerging technologies, very repressive against inner opposition, excellent education system/research

25. Scenario 2: The Genetic Blackmailers Individual DNA is misused for extortion. Scenario background: a new bill addressing secure handling of individual bio-data and bio-samples. Tony Raasonen could barely believe his eyes. Without a doubt the e-mail read: “If you don’t vote against the Biobank Bill, we’ll publish the results of an analysis of your DNA on the Internet. Freedom for our genes! - The Movement for Genetic Self-Determination.” Security Climate: New member of the EU, problems with separatists, still in the process of building a national consciousness, open to new technologies but with low level of access to technologies, after a period of dictatorship, government is centralistic, population is heterogeneous, low general income…

26. Scenario 4: We’ll change your mind… A terrorist group uses an acoustic virus to change the behaviour of a portion of the population for a certain period of time. “Have a look and see what strikes you.” The chief editor set a stack of print-outs on the desk in front of Viktor. He picked them up without interest. The somewhat gimmicky title on the top page read “Tonal Terror”. “Separatists from the Southern Province unleash an inaudible acoustic virus. Are the elections in danger?” Sometimes, it was amusing to see the drivel that the competition would come up with.

27. EU FP7 Project iKNOW WILD CARDS & WEAK SIGNALS (WI-WE) SHAPING AND SHAKING THE FUTURE OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN EUROPE Weak Signals: unclear yet observable changes that may hint at growing probability of Wild Cards.

30. Wild Cards Delphi

33. STI Pol Eco Pol STI Env Ph-I SoW Eco STI SoW Pol Vi-I STI Pol Eco SoW Eco Vi-I STI Sec STI

34. Some observations from iKNOW Delphi • Pronounced gap between IMPORTANCE and PREPAREDNESS (policy implications) • Higher priority in the long term (but the main surprise could be the timing!) • Raising awareness of Wi-We is very important

35. Privacy - Appraising Challenges to Technologies and Ethics Privacy impacts of new technologies • threats to privacy • enhancement of privacy • change of perception (sensitivity to privacy)

36. Mental Privacy Oxford University Press, September 2012

37. HACKING COMPUTERS HACKING BRAINS

38. www.practis.org haupt@post.tau.ac.il

39. Possible Privacy Scenarios? high 1. “Technology? Not for me!“ Rejection of new technologies Privacy is sacred Extreme version: “Back to nature” • “Little brothers and sisters” • Limited/conditional acceptance of technologies: Only if privacy is assured. • PETs play a significant role • Extreme version: • Full-fledged privacy-by-design Sensitivity to privacy Low high Perceived benefits of new technologies 3. “Who cares?” People are indifferent. Aggressive marketing of technologies Massive manipulation of consumers by privacy-intruding advertising techniques (brain scans?) Extreme version: Big Brother? 4. “I want this this gadget!” Enthusiastic acceptance of new technologies Privacy is easily sacrificed for benefits (security, health…) Extreme version: “World Without Secrets” Low Aharon Hauptman, ICTAF PRACTIS Workshop, Vienna

40. PRACTIS Privacy Scenarios 1. Privacy has faded away People give up privacy voluntarily, in favor of benefits of new technologies 2. People maintain as much privacy as possible Effective use of PETs. PbD 3. People have lost their control of privacy They get used, and stop worrying. Info is gathered about everybody. Everyone has equal access to others’ information. 4. Segmented privacy Privacy = a market value, but only the wealthy can afford it 5. Tailor-made privacy Some value privacy highly, other ignore it, but everyone has freedom of choice

41. 1. Privacy has faded away People give up privacy voluntarily, in favor of benefits of new technologies • Differentgoodshavebecomemorevitalthanprivacy • People selltheir ”moral” for money • Technological context: ”mind reading” gadgets, intelligent medical implants etc. arewidelyused • People make trade-offs in favour of products and services • People give up privacy voluntarily • Emerging technologies are widely accpeted

42. 3. People maintain as much privacy as possible Effective use of PETs. PbD • People believe in privacy, and do not accept new technologies as easily as before because of former experiences of privacy intrusions • People want to protect their privacy. Therefore, effective use of privacy enhancing technologies (PETs) and Privacy by Design (PbD) is established • Due to the changes of social norms, the majority of people have started to oppose the “big brother phenomenon”

43. 4. People have lost their control of privacy They get used, and stop worrying. Info is gathered about everybody. Everyone has equal access to others’ information. • People have become highly dependent on technologies and also highly oppressed by them • Technology context: brain-to-brain communication, medical nanorobots etc. are widely in use • People are permanently monitored by the state or private sector. Information is gathered constantly about everybody • People are “sleep walking” into a world without privacy without noticing, and suddenly they have no choice but to live with it

44. 5. Segmented privacy Privacy = a market value, but only the wealthy can afford it • The world is divided based on social and economic backgrounds • Technological context: Firms have made two versions of their technology applications • Emerging technologies and privacy are perceived differently depending on which “class” a person belongs to • Privacy has become a market value • Only wealthy people can afford to buy technologies where privacy settings are considered and highly valued

45. 6. Tailor-made privacy Some value privacy highly, other ignore it, but everyone has freedom of choice • Technology enables people to achieve tailor-made privacy. Privacy enhancing technologies (PETs) are available to everyone • Privacy is understood differently by each individual • Freedom of choice is highly valued • Awareness of the possibilities and disadvantages of emerging technologies is high • New technologies are treated with openness

46. Responsible Innovation Agenda for Competitive European Transport Industries up to 2050 www.race2050.org TechnischeUniversitat Berlin, Germany VTM Consultores – ConsultoresEmEngenharia E Planeamento LDA, Portugal Ritchey Consulting AB, Sweden Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis & Forecasting at Tel-Aviv University, Israel Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Institute of Sustainable Development, Switzerland Institute of Transport Economics, Norway

47. Scenario construction by general morphological analysis (GMA) A 6-parameter morphological field. The darkened cells define one of 4800 possible (formal) configurations (T. Ritchey, 2009)