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Export performance indicators and the international growth of re-exports

Export performance indicators and the international growth of re-exports. Martin Mellens OECD International Trade Statistics experts meeting September 17. Outline. What is the international trend in re-exports? What is the impact on market performance? What are the consequences?.

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Export performance indicators and the international growth of re-exports

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  1. Export performance indicators and the international growth of re-exports Martin Mellens OECD International Trade Statistics experts meeting September 17

  2. Outline • What is the international trend in re-exports? • What is the impact on market performance? • What are the consequences?

  3. International trend: method • Is soaring re-export growth a Dutch phenomenon? • Method • Input-output tables of Eurostat • Literature search • Internetsites statistical agencies (e.g. Hong Kong) More data on re-exports than expected, but ... • What are the price movements? • Are these data really measure the same thing?

  4. International trend: results

  5. Re-exports and world trade: problem setting • International growth re-exports • World trade based on import statistics • Re-exported goods registered as imports in (at least) two countries  World trade growth is ‘inflated' compared to the production of exported goods  World trade growth a biased indicator of market growth for domestic exports

  6. Relevant world trade Exports performance ‘Inflation'- effect Total exports Domestically produced exports Market performance Mix- effect Re-exports Relevant world trade corrected for re-exports

  7. Quantifying inflation effect • Import growth excluding increase re-exports • Assumptions needed • Share re-exports in imports • Re-export growth (relative to import growth) • Price movements re-exports (relative to imports) Low estimate  No re-exports unobserved countries High estimate  Re-exports unobserved countries share 15%, growth 5%, price -1%

  8. Dutch relevant world trade excluding package and inflation effect

  9. What are the consequences? (1) • Re-export growth is an international trend • With impact on world trade • Inhibiting interpretation traditional performance indicators of exports • Dutch market performance underestimated • Size of effects significant • 1996 - 2000: mix effect 0,8%-point, inflation effect 0,6%-point to 1,4%-point

  10. What are the consequences? (2) • Effect on market performance other countries unknown • probably smaller than in the Netherlands • As traditional performance indicators become more and more obsolete ... • Comparison market performance across countries is more difficult  Vast data collection effort is needed

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