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Review of Northern Winter 2010/11 Mike Blackburn

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11 Mike Blackburn National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Seasonal Climate Discussion 15 April 2011. Outline. UK and Europe surface conditions Global temperature (distribution and average) Large scale circulation & teleconnections

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Review of Northern Winter 2010/11 Mike Blackburn

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  1. Review of Northern Winter 2010/11 Mike Blackburn National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Seasonal Climate Discussion 15 April 2011

  2. Outline • UK and Europe surface conditions • Global temperature (distribution and average) • Large scale circulation & teleconnections • Circulation change in mid-November • Tropical Pacific – La Niña

  3. UK Mean Temperature anomaly Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Met Office

  4. UK Mean Temperature December: CET -0.7°C anomaly -5.3°C coldest since 1890 2nd coldest on record (since 1659) Winter (DJF): December dominates CET 2nd coldest since 1996 (2009/10 colder) Met Office

  5. UK Precipitation anomaly (%) Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Met Office

  6. UK December 2010 Met Office Chief Scientist’s report to Sir John Beddington, March 2011 www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/resilience

  7. European surface air temperature November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 Mean temperature anomalies wrt 1981-2010 average KNMI, ENSEMBLES E-OBS data

  8. European precipitation November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 Anomaly [mm/month] wrt 1981-2010 average KNMI, ENSEMBLES E-OBS data

  9. Alpine snow • Lack of snow after New Year • Warm and dry conditions prevailed through Jan/Feb 2011 Scandinavia • Cold + laying snow persisted throughout winter

  10. Surface air temperature anomaly DJF 2009/10 DJF 2010/11 NOAA ESRL

  11. Surface air temperature anomaly December 2009 December 2010 NOAA ESRL

  12. Monthly comparison, 2010 vs. previous years Cold mid-latitudes, amid global warmth “Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature”, Hansen et al (2010) • 2010 global average Ts was warmest on record – GISS data • Contribution from El Niño – La Niña cycle • Cooler in December 2010 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Hansen et al (2010)

  13. height NAO- Blocking latitude Solar minimum Stratospheric water vapour Stratospheric vortex QBO east Waves NAM AO- Planetary waves Tropical Atlantic PNA Atlantic SST & sea ice Eurasian snow cover (October) El Niño

  14. Summary • UK and European conditions • Global temperature (distribution and average) • Large scale circulation & teleconnections • Circulation change in mid-November • Tropical Pacific – La Niña

  15. 250hPa wind and Geopotential Height Dec. Climatology December 2009 December 2010

  16. 250hPa vector wind November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 NOAA ESRL

  17. 250hPa geopotential height anomaly November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 NOAA ESRL

  18. North Atlantic Oscillation NAO Z500 Arctic Oscillation AO Pacific/North American PNA Pmsl Z500 Teleconnection patterns Winter 2010/11 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  19. Teleconnection patterns Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  20. Blocking strength (Tibaldi & Monteni index) Winter 2009/10 Winter 2010/11 NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  21. Jet Stream wind / Streamfunction anomaly December 2009 December 2010

  22. Summary • UK and European conditions • Global temperature (distribution and average) • Large scale circulation & teleconnections • Circulation change in mid-November • Tropical Pacific – La Niña

  23. mid-November circulation change Beware November monthly averages! NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  24. Surface air temperature – time evolution 01-30 November 2010 01-14 December 2010 01-15 November 2010 16-30 November 2010 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

  25. 250hPa height – hemispheric planetary wave pattern: weekly averages from early November to mid-December ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

  26. 250hPa streamfunction – global wave patterns: weekly averages from through November 2010 ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

  27. 250hPa streamfunction – precursor pattern for negative NAO: Woollings et al (2008) 250hPa meridional wind ECMWF analyses, processed at University of Reading

  28. Summary • UK and European conditions • Global temperature (distribution and average) • Large scale circulation & teleconnections • Circulation change in mid-November • Tropical Pacific – La Niña

  29. Niño region SST anomalies NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  30. El Niño, 2009/10 SST anomaly DJF 09/10 OLR anomaly DJF 09/10 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

  31. La Niña, 2010/11 SST anomaly DJF 10/11 OLR anomaly DJF 10/11 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin NOAA ESRL

  32. Tropical SST evolution NOAA Climate Prediction Center/NCEP

  33. 2010/11 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL) Sept 2010 Dec 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 NOAA ESRL

  34. Tropical evolution NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  35. Tropical evolution NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  36. Tropical evolution: 5N-5S pentad data NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  37. Tropical evolution: 5N-5S pentad data NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  38. OLR anomalies (monthly) September 2010 December 2010 October 2010 January 2011 November 2010 February 2011 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  39. 200hPa streamfunction anomalies (monthly) September 2010 December 2010 October 2010 January 2011 November 2010 February 2011 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

  40. SST: comparison with previous La Niñas NOAA ESRL

  41. ENSO evolution – previous events SOI versus Nino 3.4 – DJF - main monsoon season KNMI Climate Explorer

  42. Conclusions / Summary • Second cold winter in Europe & across mid-latitudes • …but warmer late winter in Europe • Cold onset: mid-November circulation change • …possible trigger from (tropical) Pacific • Strong La Niña, throughout (northern) Autumn + Winter • …large scale response varies through season • Similarities to and differences from 2009/10 winter

  43. - questions? -

  44. 2010 SST anomaly (NCEP reanalysis, ESRL) Sept Oct Nov. 1-15 Nov. 16-30 Dec. 1-15 Dec. 16-31 NOAA ESRL

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