Solutions to a hazardous world

1. Solutions to a hazardous world

2. Spec Solutions to a more hazardous world, at all scales need to focus on the underlying issues of risk and vulnerability. Developing an awareness of, for example, local flood risk, regional poverty and international strategies to tackle a world at risk.

3. Capacity Building for Climate Change: A Risk Management Approach Milind Kandlikar Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability University of British Columbia Ambuj Sagar John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University

4. Risks from Climate : Why should we care? • Impacts will be felt in all sectors, esp. on natural resources (Water, Agriculture, Forests and Coastal zones) • The magnitude of impacts is likely to be substantial, and in some cases, catastrophic: • Climate variability (especially extreme events) will be the primary driver. • 2002 Monsoon failures in India may result in ~1% GDP loss. • Recurring floods in Bangladesh (~5% of GDP). • Hurricane Mitch (‘99) “set Honduras economic development back 20 years” (~75% of GDP). • Adaptation will involve coping with climate shifts and variability in the context of several factors that • influence vulnerability.

5. Magnitude of Weather Impacts Increasing Vulnerability from Weather Risks Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16

6. Per-Capita Weather Impacts Climate Vulnerability and Development: Common concerns Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16 Source: World Disasters Report 2001

7. Global Weather Related Losses in US $ Billion 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Total Economic Loss Average loss per Decade Insured Loss Mean Insured Loss per Decade Risks from Climate Variability to the Economy • Business and increased uncertainty do not mix well. • Increased climate variability will impact long-run growth since resources will be needed to hedge against climate related economic uncertainty. • Impacts: • Agriculture and Natural Resources • Financial sectors (Insurance and Banking) • Knock-on effect on other sectors

8. Risks from Climate Change: A Historical Perspective “The picture’s pretty bleak, gentleman. The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.” The task is difficult but humans are more intelligent (and so, we hope, are our political leaders). Source: Gary Larson

9. Source: Stockholm Environmental Institute Many different factors can make you more or less vulnerable to climate variability

10. Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective Science of Climate Useful knowledge Broad Sector Studies Decision making under uncertainty Climate only one input! Design of local strategies Incorporation into practice Training & policy shift Disaster Relief Management Current Barriers New Technologies and Political ‘will’

11. Science and Assessments: From Global to Local and Back • Scientific knowledge: • data, models, ‘facts’ • Usable knowledge: • influences “on the ground” decisions • prediction, economic value • Difficulty: • Uncertainty increases with decreasing scale • Capacity building challenge: • learning to extract useful local info. in the face of uncertainty • Not merely an academic exercise, continuous interaction with the “real” world. Predictability Uncertainty Local Regional Global Scale

12. Being prepared for climate change : If adaptation is the answer, what is the question? • Climate is one input among many: • goal is to reduce impact on economy and society (human development) • Multiple stressors • Increased climate variability • Change in local vulnerability over time due to other factors • Changes in operating “regimes” • Multiple Stakeholders • Added complexity and coordination • Recognition that stakes vary • The poorest take the biggest hit Climate Policy & Politics Other Stressors

13. Capacity Building (I): Knowledge Generation and Integration • Knowledge Generation • Knowledge about the climatic system (e.g., regional models) • Ability toconvert “raw” scientific data into useful predictive information (e.g., probability of rainfall failure) • Knowledge Integration • Ability to integrate predictive climate information with other sector information and local knowledge. Easier said than done! • Ability to integrate disparate existing capacities.Find the experts. • Scientists and analysts to learn region specific needs, and develop/ modify assessments in response. Two-way street. • Public (Bureaucrats, NGOs) and private sector needs to be intimately involved so facilitate feedback to analysts.

14. Capacity Building (II): Preparedness and Response • Whose capacity? • The entire “system”: • Knowledge generators (Scientists) • Mediators (NGOs, bureaucrats, markets) • End users (people, banks, private sector) • Infrastructure(road, rail, telecom) • What does it require? • Credible and Appropriate Knowledge • Institutional adjustment • Financial considerations • Linking knowledge to action. • Top-down and bottom up flows

15. Capacity Capacity Building: Three Core Challenges • Building Effective Knowledge Generation Systems • A system that moves information from top-down to bottom up and vice-versa. • Is credible with users • That links with other efforts. • Meeting Financial Considerations • Who pays? Who calls the shots? • How is the money spent? • Enabling Institutional Transformations • Bridging existing gaps within and among institutions. • Making existing institutions more porous • Building new institutions Capacity Financing Knowledge systems Institutional Transformation

16. Some Lessons from Disaster Mitigation Efforts (Red Cross) • No coherent risk reduction “community”: • Professionals trying to mitigate impacts are fragmented along institutional boundaries. • Risk reductioncannot be viewed as a technical problem with technical solutions. • It is also a matter of enacting and enforcing laws, building and maintaining accountable institutions, and producing an environment of mutual trust between government and the population. • Community-based approacheslead to more accurate definition of problems and solutions, because they draw on local expertise in living with disasters. Communities at risk must trust those delivering the warnings. • Vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) • Can provide participants with greater awareness of their own potentialities. “Instead of seeing themselves as victims, people tell themselves that they can influence what happens.” So VCA is a capacity-building tool as well as a diagnostic measure.

19. The Hyogo Framework for Action P 85 Philip Allan

20. Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction It was convened on the basis of guidance contained in the resolution of the General Assembly on the ISDR that calls for the adoption by governments of the Hyogo Framework and that recognizes the Global Platform as a successor mechanism to the Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster Reduction. National practitioners and other stakeholders have repeatedly expressed the desire to have a mechanism through which they can exchange their experiences in disaster risk reduction and access information on how other countries addressed particular challenges in the implementation of the Hyogo Framework. The Global Platform has been set up to serve this need, and it is expected to become the main global forum for all parties involved in disaster risk reduction, namely governments, United Nations agencies, international financial institutions, regional bodies, civil society, the private sector, and the scientific and academic communities. The Global Platform provides advocacy for effective action to reduce disaster risks, expands the political space devoted to the issue, and contributes to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals particularly in respect to poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. The UN/ISDR is the focal point in the UN System to promote links and synergies between, and the coordination of, disaster reduction activities in the socio-economic, humanitarian and development fields, as well as to support policy integration. It serves as an international information clearinghouse on disaster reduction, developing awareness campaigns and producing articles, journals, and other publications and promotional materials related to disaster reduction. The UN/ISDR headquarters is based in Geneva. It conducts outreach programmes through its regional units in Panama for the Americas, Nairobi for Africa, Cairo for Western Asia & North Africa.

21. The United Nations General Assembly designated the 1990’s as the  International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Its basic objective was to decrease the loss of life, property destruction and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides ,volcanic eruptions, droughts, locust infestations, and other disasters of natural origin. While the IDNDR followed a strictly techno-centric and scientific approach in the beginning, the Yokohama conference in 1994 put socio-economic aspects as component of effectivedisaster prevention into perspective. It was recognised that social factors, such as cultural tradition, religious values, economic standing, and trust in political accountability are essential in the determination of societal vulnerability. In order to reduce societal vulnerability, and therewith decrease the consequences of natural disasters, these factors need to be addressed. The ability to address socio-economic factors requires knowledge and understanding of local conditions, which can – in most cases - only be provided by local actors. A global strategy aiming at reducing the impacts of natural hazards therefore must include the development of national and sub-national mechanisms for disaster risk reduction. Within this context the IDNDR called on the UN-member states to establish National Platforms which would facilitate the adjustment of general disaster risk reduction objectives to national/local conditions, implement the agreed policies and expand the understanding and perception of the importance of disaster risk reduction on national levels. However, while some countries successfully established national networks many did not. In practice, there remains a pressing need to revitalize and strengthen these national structures.

22. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) • When it drew to an end, the IDNDR was replaced and continued by the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). The ISDR aims to pursue the initiatives and cooperation agreed on during the IDNDR, and developing new mechanisms as well as pushing for further commitments from policy-makers. The overriding goal is to reduce human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards (and related technological and environmental disasters). The building of disaster resilient communities is a main objective. The ISDR promotes the following four objectives as tools towards reaching disaster reduction for all: • Increase public awareness to understand risk, vulnerability and disaster reduction globally • Obtain commitment from public authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions • Stimulate interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction networks • Improve scientific knowledge about disaster reduction

23. ISDR Mission • Catalyze, facilitate and mobilize the commitment and resources of national, regional and international stakeholders of the ISDR System to build the resilience of nations and communities to disasters through the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. • Recognizing that natural hazards can threaten any one of us, the ISDR builds on partnerships and takes a global approach to disaster reduction, seeking to involve every individual and every community towards the goals of reducing the loss of lives, the socio-economic setbacks and the environmental damages caused by natural hazards. In order to achieve these goals, the ISDR promotes four objectives as tools towards reaching disaster reduction for all: • Increase public awareness to understand risk, vulnerability and disaster reduction globally The more people, regional organizations, governments, non-governmental organizations, United Nations entities, representatives of civil society and others know about risk, vulnerability and how to manage the impacts of natural hazards, the more disaster reduction measures will be implemented in all sectors of society. Prevention begins with information. • Obtain commitment from public authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions The more decision-makers at all levels commit themselves to disaster reduction policies and actions, the sooner communities vulnerable to natural disasters will benefit from applied disaster reduction policies and actions. This requires, in part, a grassroots approach whereby communities at risk are fully informed and participate in risk management initiatives. • Stimulate interdisciplinary and intersectoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction networks The more entities active in disaster reduction share information on their research and practices, the more useful the global body of knowledge and experience will progress. By sharing a common purpose and through collaborative efforts we can ensure a world that is more resilient to the impact of natural hazards. • Improve scientific knowledge about disaster reduction The more we know about the causes and consequences of natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters on societies, the more we are able to be better prepared to reduce risks. Bringing the scientific community and policy makers together allows them to contribute to and complement each other's work.

24. Decision Making Exercise Investigate the hazards that face Bangladesh in the future and decide what can be done to help them in the future? P60-61 Oxford Flooding in Bangladesh

29. Capacity Building Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Temperatures are rising on Earth, which is heating up the debate over Global Warming and the Climate Change issues. To combat global warming, there is need for greater focus on Climate Risk Management (CRM). CRM involves two broader areas, Mitigation and Adaptation. While mitigation is a must to stabilize climate system and requires global action (by all nations, states/countries), adaptation is needed to cop with the situation which are already exerting pressure on the life & livelihood of the billions around the globe & shall continue in the decades to come. Adaptation to global climate change needs to be recognized as life saving for millions. Bangladesh is the worst victim of CC impacts and can’t wait but has to act immediately with all out effort. Capacity building for climate change refers to the development or strengthening of personal skills, expertise, and relevant institutions and organizations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or to reduce vulnerability to climate-related impacts. Capacity building often involves the participation of multiple stakeholders, including host country governments, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), research institutions, local communities, and international organizations.

30. Bangladesh Case Study Bangladesh is globally considered as one of the most vulnerable countries. An overwhelming majority (82.8 percent; World Bank 2006) of its 150 million people live on income averaging less than two dollars a day. Observed past and present climate trends and variability indicates an increasing trend of about 1 degree C in May and 0.5 degree C in November has been observed during the fourteen year period 1985-1998. Annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends. Observed changes in extreme climatic events revealed from new evidences on recent trends show increasing tendency in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events over the last century and into the 21st century. Impacts of these observed changes have been significant on agriculture, particularly on food production and security. Another area critically affected is hydrology and water resources, characterized by water shortages. Our coastal zone is most threatened. Saltwater from the Bay of Bengal has penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during dry season. Evidences of the impacts of climate related factors on mangroves are the severe destruction of mangroves due to reduction of freshwater flows and salt water intrusion. Wetlands have been observed to suffer from precipitation decline and droughts in the delta region. The north is affected by floods and riverbank erosion, north and northwestern parts affected by droughts, while the northeast is ravaged by flash floods annually. In recent years, heat waves and cold spells have claimed hundreds of life. Vector borne diseases particularly dengue has become a health hazard claiming hundreds of lives every year. Bangladesh Department of the Environment http://www.climatechangecell-bd.org/cc-database.html

31. Bangladesh Objectives • Development means wellbeing of society, economy and environment. Climate Change, variability and extreme events challenge development gains and future goals. Therefore development must be made climate resilient to assure our wellbeing. • The Climate Change Cell has established a mechanism that facilitates management of long term climate risks and uncertainties as an integral part of national development planning. The Cell also facilitates strengthening the capacity of the professionals, practitioners, policy makers to reduce unacceptable risks and improve preparedness for climate change impacts. The specific objectives of the Climate Change Cell are: • Establishing an integrated approach to climate change risk management at national and local levels; • Building the capacity of the Government to coordinate & mainstream climate change issues in development activities; • Strengthen existing knowledge & information accessibility on impact prediction & adaptation to climate change; • Awareness-raising, advocacy & coordination to promote adaptation to climate change & risk reduction in development activities.

32. Grass root awareness in Bangladesh Extreme weather and events like cyclone, flood, storm surges will intensify, become more frequent and unpredictable. Changes in the temperature and rainfall pattern will be significant, with grave implications on our natural resource base, putting agriculture and related livelihood at risk. Droughts and flash foods, untimely hailstorm, mists will increase and take place more frequently. In addition, changes that take place gradually over years and sometimes decades, such as salinity intrusion, desertification and sea level rise will compound our risks and national development goals, particularly poverty reduction. As a nation we must face up to this challenge. For Bangladesh, climate change is everyone’s concern. Therefore we must all understand the challenge and act now. Everyone has a stake and therefore a role to play in their respective capacity. Adequate and appropriate understanding of climate challenges begins with accurate information, knowledge and communication. We need to help people understand that climate change is a serious challenge, but one that we can do something about. We want to communicate a positive vision of what we are collectively trying to achieve. Our goal is that working together this generation will prepare and address climate change challenges. “Most people in Bangladesh think that climate change is confusing; they can’t see how it relates to them; think won’t affect them personally; is a problem for the future, not now; and can’t be affected by their individual actions, because the problem is so big.”