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Dave’s Forecast Update

Dave’s Forecast Update. Dave Jasinski UMCES/CBPO TMAW - 5/3/2007. Predicting Chl-a. Malone (1992) found a significant relationship between 1 month lagged Susquehanna river flow and mesohaline mainstem chl-a. Chl-a = 0.03 + 1.43(Q f ) r 2 =0.71 p<0.01. Q f = lagged Susq flow.

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Dave’s Forecast Update

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  1. Dave’s Forecast Update Dave Jasinski UMCES/CBPO TMAW - 5/3/2007

  2. Predicting Chl-a • Malone (1992) found a significant relationship between 1 month lagged Susquehanna river flow and mesohaline mainstem chl-a Chl-a = 0.03 + 1.43(Qf) r2=0.71 p<0.01 Qf = lagged Susq flow

  3. Could not reproduce result p<0.001 1985-1988 water column integrated mean monthly chla mass for the mesohaline Mainstem vs previous month mean daily flow (CFS)

  4. 1985-2006 p<0.001 1985-2006 water column integrated mean monthly chla mass for the mesohaline Mainstem vs previous month mean daily flow (CFS)

  5. Chla forecasting • Looking at individual months, segments, seasons weakened the relationship • No significant relationship with surface values only • Next step will look at seasonal CHLA vs total flows as well as using interpolated CHLA mass.

  6. River loads and forecast time-line • Joel Blomquist is new loads guru • Jan-April fall line loads calculated by May 8th • Can develop Pax and Rapp anoxia forecasts and prelim mainstem anoxia forecast with this • Jan-May will be available ~June 8th and will then be able to do final Mainstem anoxic, Hypoxic and Potomac anoxic

  7. Jan-May Jan-April

  8. Currently working on • Estimating `06-`07 point source loads based on addition of `05 data • Investigating anoxic volume bias from new interpolator

  9. Example of point source data

  10. Interpolator issue Image 3 – New interpolator output (2 nearest neighbor) with vertically interpolated station data Image 2 – New interpolator output with vertically interpolated station data Image 1 – Old interpolator output with vertically interpolated station data

  11. Other Forecasts • Scavia is on track, I just need to get him some data. • Ping needs - 1) DO, chlorophyll, temperature monitoring data (2006 – present) from the main stem and down-streams of tributaries, 2) fall line flows (until present month!!!!) for major tributaries, 2) TN and TP concentration (observed, not from the ESTIMATOR) since 2005 for major tributaries, and 3) Point source TN and TP loads (2005, 2006) from the 9 major basins/tributaries.

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