Guy Ben-Porat Ben-Gurion University Tokyo, Japan January 2011

1. Grounds for Peace;Territorial Conflicts and Resolution Guy Ben-Porat Ben-Gurion University Tokyo, Japan January 2011

2. Globalization and Peace Can globalization help resolve ethno-national conflicts? Under what conditions? What can we learn from case-studies such as Israel/Palestine and Northern Ireland? Similarities and differences Paths for peace Explaining success and failure

3. Comparing Conflicts and Peace Process • The legacy of protracted conflicts • Long term • Involve different issues • Can not be resolved, only managed • The Changes in the 1990’s • End of the Cold War • Globalization and de-territorialization • Ripeness for peace? • Globalization, economic growth and peace – • A great promise or an Illusion? • What kind of peace? – paths for peace

4. Peace, Globalization and Virtuous cycles • Changing concepts of territory and identity • The “global village” and the “virtual state • The political economy of peace and conflict • Peace as a condition for economic growth • Peace dividends” - portrayed in win-win terms – creating a “virtuous cycle” of peace • Regional and global integration • Europe and the New Middle East • two problematic assumptions: • peace benefits are universally available (inequality) • Peace benefits are universally desirable (spoilers)

5. The “double movement”(Polanyi, 1956) • The creation of a market society based on the "disembedding" of markets is counteracted by society's protective measures. • Countermovement: spontaneous, incoherent based on social forces with diverse and, at times, contradictory visions and goals. • Explaining the emergence but also the vulnerability and at times failure of peace processes • Globalization and uneven growth • The resurgence of nationalism and territoriality • The vulnerability of peace and the dynamics of protracted conflicts • Spoilers and “backlash”

6. Resolving Protracted Conflicts • How are strategies for conflict resolution determined? • What advantages can be drawn from globalization? • What effects can strategies chosen have on the dynamics of the peace process? • What impact have they have on stability and resilience of the process?

7. Choosing (?) the Path • Different paths for peace • Partition • Illusion of finality • Disputed boundaries • High inequalities (attributed to the conflict) • Past grievances not addresses • Zero sum dynamic • Power sharing • Attempt to transcend “winner takes all” • Forces cooperation

8. Main Arguments • Globalization provides incentives to resolve conflicts • Support from peace is expected from those designated as winners while other constituencies have to be convinced • Success of peace is determined by its overall legitimacy and ability to contain “spoilers” • Hence, peace processes can benefit from globalization but are influenced by • Structures of the peace process • Distribution of benefits and risks • Popular support

9. Case Studies: Israel and N. Ireland • Main Arguments • The changes in the 1990’s associated with globalization underscored the transformations in Israel/Palestine and N. Ireland • N. Ireland was able to capitalize on global changes • Favorable regional setting • Power sharing forcing cooperation • Distribution of benefits • Israel/Palestine • Limited support – regional and domestic • Attempts of partition • Spoilers and backlash

10. Towards ripeness (?) • Israel/Palestine • The intifada • Battle fatigue • Economic transformation • Change of leadership • Northern Ireland • “The Troubles” • Changes in British and Irish perception • Leadership and pragmatism • Economic downturn and dependency

11. Moving Towards Peace • Israel/Palestine • The Madrid Conference • The “New Middle East” • Oslo (1993) • Collapse and violence • Camp David (20０0) • Collapse and violence • Northern Ireland • Cease fire (1994) • Breakdown and violence • The Good Friday Agreement (1998) • De-comissioning and power-sharing

12. The Good Friday Agreement • Power sharing against all odds? • Northern Ireland: British or Irish? • New context • Regional development: the EU • Regional Development: UK and RI • Globalization • The three strands of the agreement • Democratic institutions, North-South Ministerial Council and a British-Irish Council

13. Balance Sheet • Positive developments • Reduction of violence • Politics of civic society • Economic growth • Uncertainties • Political issues yet unresolved • Sectarian politics • Strong identities • Limited reconciliation

14. Oslo and the “Peace Festival” A partition agreement backed by economic promises ceremonies and the growing business confidence Issues to be resolved Settlements Refugees Jerusalem Agreement to agree Difficult issues delayed Limited support for peace in Israel and among Palestinians Economic growth Unequal distribution

15. On the Ground : Partition and disagreement • Maximum Territory – Minimum control over Palestinians • Settlements not removed – delayed to the final agreement • Frustrations and violence • Zero-sum dynamic of withdrawals and re-deployments • Expectations and trust • Security – Israel • Sovereignty and removal of settlements - Palestinians

17. The Collapse of the Peace Process • The 1996 elections • Camp David (2000) and the “no partner” approach • Unilateral measures • The fence • The withdrawal from Gaza • Partition without agreement?

18. Conclusions • Location matters. • Regional structures impact peace processes • While globalization provides incentives and motivation to end what seemed as intractable conflicts it also underscored frustrations and the opposition • It is not only about growth and not only about the economy • Partition is no less difficult than power sharing • especially when borders are disputed, indivisible issues exist and partition involves population transfers • Spoilers are likely to be part of any peace process that involves territorial compromises • The question is their impact and ability of policymakers to contain opposition • Social justice and inclusion must be an integral part of any future legitimate peace process.