“Planning under Uncertainty” John Vink, Chief Defence Planning, NATO C3 Agency

1. “Planning under Uncertainty”John Vink, Chief Defence Planning, NATO C3 Agency Presentation is NATO UNCLASSIFIED

2. Overview Defence Planning Planning Situations Timeframe Medium-Term Planning Long-Term Planning Capability Based Planning Continuum Summary

3. Defence Planning - 1 DP Domains Force C3 Resource Logistics Armaments Nuclear Civil Emergency Planning Air Defence Air Traffic Management Military Medical Intelligence Research & Technology Standardisation Not all areas derive Capability Requirements Some are involved with Capability Development only

4. Defence Planning - 2 Purpose: Provide Capabilities to meet evolving Missions & Tasks “General Model” Risk Assessments Need to consider a “Comprehensive Approach” – Coordinated use of Political, Military, Economic and Civil power Political Guidance Determine Capability Requirements Review Results Improving Capabilities Identify Requirements & Prioritize Shortfalls Solutions Apportion Requirements Facilitate Implementation • Requirements expressed as a Capability to accomplish a specific Task • Also non-mil requirements: ATM, transport, legal, judicial,etc

5. Planning Situations Uncertainty PS Full Range What Capabilities are needed? Known Capabilities Nr of Situations Defence Planning Unforeseeable Situations Ops Planning (Actual & Likely) Advance Plans COP / GCOP Need to take a global view of the possibilities CRO OPLAN Timeframe Present Short- Medium- Long-Term

6. Timeframe - 1 Medium-Term planning to take place in the “Long-Term planning context” Flex • Qualitative • “Descriptive” • Capabilities • R&T/R&D • Qualitative • Quantitative • “Specific” Solutions • CRO Urgent • Requirements Short- Present Medium- Long-Term

7. Timeframe - 2 • Qualitative • “Descriptive” • Capabilities • Current Capabilities / Inventories / Plans vs Uncertainties in the future • Required Caps change in quantity, quality & emphasis over time • Solutions paced by Technology and Resources • Decisions have Long-Term Impacts • Qualitative • Quantitative • “Specific” Solutions • CRO Urgent • Requirements Short- Present Medium- Long-Term

8. Process – Medium-Term (1) • Missions • Mil Docs • ….. • Strategic Concept • Ministerial Guidance • DP Assessments • …. • FSE • Intel docs • ….. Political Guidance & Tasking Missions & Military Guidance Security Environment Assessment Analyses Disciplines & Domains SCs ….. Future Defence Requirements Stove-pipes hinder coherence and interoperability

9. PS PS PS PS PS Capability Reqts PS PS PS PS MT PS Reqt Level of Ambition Process – Medium-Term (2)Bi-SC Risk Assessments • PS Selection • Relevance • Plausibility • Criticality PS Excess + Gap Analysis and Fulfilment PS Fulfilled Reqt . . . . . . Mission task decomposition Unfulfilled Reqt + PS Solution Development Planning / Influencing factors

10. Factors - Examples Planning Factors: Distance, Size, Intensity, Austerity Influencing Factors: Geography, Type of entry, Opponent, etc * Representation of degree of variation, e.g. Intensity: Hi/Lo; Climate: Tropical/Temperate/Arctic/Arid

11. Process – Long-Term Derivation Process Key input • Mission Types • Planning Situations • Long-Term Security Trends • Security trends • Techn development of concern • Strategic implications Mission Analysis • Future Role of NATO • Ambition • Relationships • Tasks / Effects • Capabilities Methodology Future Worlds Cap. Analysis • Future Technology • Techn trends influencing military capability needs – presenting opportunities • Comparison of techn. trends with trends outlined in previously defined requirements Should “gel” with Medium-Term Planning Gap Analysis (previously defined vs capability reqts.) • Future Concepts / Doctrines • Summary of developing concepts and future implications • Identification and outline of concepts that need to be developed Prioritization • Operationally driven capability gaps • Efficiency driven capability opportunities

12. Multiple Futures • The Multiple Futures Project articulates plausible future environments, aiming at identifying relevant threats and their Security & Military implications. The Multiple Futures will inform the Defence Planning Process • Threats • Security Implications • Economy • Immigration • Destabilisation, etc • Military Implications • Enemy caps • Protection of citizens • Defend critical infrastructure, etc Implications Drivers Study Futures • Technology • Demographics • Climate, etc • Future 1 • Future 2 • Future 3, etc

13. Capability Based PlanningSystematic process for planning under uncertainty based on ‘what do we need to do’ • CBP is about: • Confronting Uncertainty, Risks and Constraints • Identifying Options and analyzing Choices • Requires • Commonly understood vocabulary • Clearly articulated assumptions & constraints • Moves away from suggesting solutions too early in the process • Encourages innovation • Considers trade-offs between potential solutions for a capability requirement • Gives greater flexibility in meeting requirements • Audit trail for decision makers • E.g. Changes question from • ‘Options for new artillery’ • ‘How to provide fire support to land forces’

14. DOTMLPFI – Capability Elements Capability defined in MC 550 - MC Guidance for the Military Implementation of the CPG. Capability as the entirety of a system that delivers an output or effect. It will most likely be a complex combination of DOTMLPFI: Doctrine Organisation Training Materiel Leadership Development Personnel Facilities Interoperability

15. Capability Improvements Cold War Article V NRF Stability & Reconstruction Hybrid / Irregular Warfare DOTMLPFI DOTMLPFI Defence Planning to capture DOTMLPFI elements Corps Division Brigade Company MN Tac. Units

16. Adapted DP ProcessShort-, Medium-, Long-Term Continuum Adapted DP Process All Disciplines / Domains Stove-pipes Lessons Learned Stove-pipes hinder Coherence and Interoperability Present Short- Medium- Long-Term

17. Prioritised List(s) of Capability Shortfalls Short-Term Mid-Term Long-Term Lessons Learned Opportunities to improve mission effectiveness & interoperability OR “Where to make most difference”

18. “The List”

19. Summary Capability Based Planning Risk Assessments Future Worlds Mission Analyses Shortfall Prioritisation Challenges: Continuum Stove-pipes Acceptable Risk Single List