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State Population Forecast: 2010-2040

State Population Forecast: 2010-2040. Office of Financial Management Forecasting Division November 29, 2012. General Findings. State population growth is expected slow around 2025.

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State Population Forecast: 2010-2040

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  1. State Population Forecast: 2010-2040 Office of Financial Management Forecasting Division November 29, 2012

  2. General Findings • State population growth is expected slow around 2025. • The state’s population will become increasingly older each year. This aging process will cause a decline in the number of births due to a smaller proportion of women at child bearing age. At the same time, an elderly population is at greater risk of dying, thus contributing to an increase in the number of deaths. • Migration is expected to bounce back to 45,000 annually after 2022 and will continue to serve as the main contributor to state population growth.

  3. State Population Growth is Expected to Slow Mainly as the Result of an Increase in the Death Rate

  4. Components of Population Change • Natural increase is expected to decline from a level of 40,700 in 2010 to 15,600 by 2040. Migration will remain the main contributor to state population growth into the foreseeable future.

  5. As the Baby Boomers Age, the Demand for Senior Services Will Increase Between 2011 and 2029, all of the Baby Boomers will turn 65. While the total population is expected to grow by no more than 10 percent per decade in the next 30 years, the 65 and over population is expected to grow by 51 percent between 2010-20, and 34 percent between 2020-30. By 2040, the 65 and over population is projected to reach 1.8 million—an increase of just over one million persons since 2010.

  6. Projected Change in Budget Driver Populations: 2013-2015 Ages 0-2 Children Ages 0-17 Ages 5-17 Ages 12-17 Ages 17-29 Males Ages 18-39 Ages 85+ General Population Population growth in specific subgroups will affect major budget areas although the impacts will depend on policy choices, economic factors, and social conditions.

  7. Contact Information Yi Zhao, Chief Demographer OFM / Forecasting 360-902-0592 yi.zhao@ofm.wa.gov

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