Mobile Africa 2049: What role for applications?

1. Mobility in Africa Foresight Workshop, June 1-2, 2010 Mobile Africa 2049:What role for applications? Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev / World Bank

2. A brief history of typewriters Mobiles in 2010 = Typewriters in 1950:Current focus is on the device rather than the applications Typewriter first commercialized in US in 1870s – important innovations included the QWERTY keyboard, carbon paper, portability etc From 1960s onwards, computers began to be integrated into computers – a similar analogy would be the transition of mobiles into smartphones with addition of memory, IP capability, keyboards etc By 1980s, typewriters were transitioning to “word processors” – typewriters becoming “keyboards” on other devices like mobile is a “communications capability” for other devices By 2010s, typewriter keyboards are becoming “invisible” – the typewriter is now a device application than can be turned on when required

3. What lessons for mobile 2049? Mobile communication embedded into universal communicator device Navigation Mobile updates real-time traffic and weather conditions • Mobiles in 2049 = Typewriters in 2010:Mobiles will be impossible to “count” because they appear in so many different forms • The focus will be on the application not the device – Could we have imagined, in 1950, the uses of keyboards in 2010? • Non-human mobile “users” will greatly outnumber human ones – machine to machine communications in an “Internet of Things” • Usage costs will approach zero – Flat-rate, rather metered, pricing will be the norm within the next 10 years • Everything over IP On-board mobiles communicate with similar devices in other vehicles for collision avoidance Mobiles report real-time vehicle data for automated carbon tax collection

4. Why are mobile applications so important for Africa today? Mobile already represents the largest delivery platform for development applications – e.g., M-Pesa in Kenya No adequate substitutes are available – mobiles outnumber PCs by >16:1 Low barriers to entry – Standard-based tools are available free of charge Market is highly segmented and localized – industry has not yet had its “Google moment” High export potential – compare with India’s success in offshore s/w development Growth of fixed and mobile connections in Africa, 1998-2008, in millions Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database.

5. Creating Sustainable Businesses in the Knowledge Economy • A public-private partnership, launched on Dec 17 2009 • Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Finland • infoDev / World Bank • Nokia • Other partners include Mobile Monday, Korea ICT4D Fund, MCT Mozambique • Three key areas of focus • Agribusiness • Mobile communications • Innovation, SME creation and supporting technology entrepreneurs • Three regions • Africa • Asia • Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (ECA)

6. Track 1: Mobile Applications • Regional Mobile applications laboratories • Three labs to be established in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe • Labs intended to develop between 8-10 mobile applications • Possible Lab functions • Training and accreditation • Certification • Competition for Ideas • Replication of successful applications • Mentoring of start-ups and SMEs (via incubators) • Repository of knowledge and best practice cases • Consumer behaviour research • Facilitating access to finance / access to markets • Mobile social networking • Working with Mobile Monday to extend the model of an innovation network to extend the reach of mobile applications • Launch of MoMo Kampala on 8 March • Launch of MoMo Nairobi on 11 March • Other planned launches in Mozambique and Tanzania

7. Creating Sustainable Businesses in the Knowledge Economy