Space Weather: Needs and Users

1. Space Weather: Needs and Users D.A. Biesecker NOAA/Space Environment Center

2. Outline • A quick, general, introduction to space weather • The 3 space weather scales • Where’s the biggest interest lately? Aviation and human space flight • Polar routes • Commercial human space flight • Moon and Mars • Some SEC and Space Weather Specifics • Product growth, tracking customers • Service Assessment • Lessons learned • How other research missions were incorporated into the forecast center • What SEC needs the most • The Big List • What we expect from SDO • Immediate impact; longer term utility • Suggest a name for the GOES-R (and all future) SXI (it will be an EUV imager) • Due by 9am Friday

3. Space Environment Center SEC and Space Weather ProductsProducts and Services NOAA Space Weather Scales • Similar to Hurricane and Tornado • intensity scales (1 thru 5) • Saffir-Simpson (1969) • Fujita scale (1971) • Three Categories • Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale • Caused by enhancements in Solar Wind • Ground-based magnetometer deviations • Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale • Caused by Particle Events • Energetic Proton Flux on GOES • Radio Blackouts, R-scale • Caused by Solar Flares • Solar X-Ray Flux on GOES

4. Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) • Power systems: widespread voltage control problems; protective system problems; transformer damage; grid collapse and blackouts. • Spacecraft operations: surface charging; problems with orientation; uplink/downlink problems; satellite drag and tracking problems. • Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps; HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days; satellite navigation may be degraded for days; low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours; aurora.

5. Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale) • Biological: Radiation hazard to astronauts (especially during EVA; radiation exposure in commercial jets (mostly high latitudes) • Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless; memory impacts can cause loss of control; serious noise in image data; star-trackers unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels • Other systems: complete, often prolonged (days) of blackout of HF (high frequency) communications in polar regions; position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult

6. Powerful X17 flare Solar Flare Radio Blackouts(R Scale) • High Frequency Radio; mariner’s and aviator’s communication degraded or blacked out • Navigation; low frequency signals used by mariners and aviators degraded or blacked out; satellite navigation errors

7. Space Environment Center SEC and Space Weather ProductsProducts and Services • Watches;expected • disturbances, events that are • forecast (i.e. The conditions • are favorable for occurrence) • Warnings;disturbances that • are imminent, likely, expected • in the near future with high • probability • Alerts;observed conditions • meeting or exceeding • thresholds • Summaries; report issued as • storm thresholds change/end- • of-event SEC produces 42 Alert products

8. Aviation • Lots of recent activity and focus on aviation customers. • Workshops with FAA, Airline reps, dispatchers, and pilot and steward unions • Polar flights • Health issues • SEC visits to airline headquarters • Resulted in better understanding among all parties • SEC knows airline needs • Airlines more familiar with space weather • 1 new ‘product’ • Including space tourism and VSE

9. SPACE WEATHER EFFECTSONPOLAR OPERATIONS Excerpts from a talk given by UAL representatives Len Salinas Manager QA Dispatch & Operations Chairman - Dispatch Safety Awareness Program Eric Richardson Aviation Meteorologist February 23, 2004

10. UAL Operations: USA to Hong Kong/China • Polar routes provide time savings and convenience to our customers • Note, other airlines, notably NWA also have significant presence in polar operations • UAL Changes over the last 8 years • Eight years ago - Fly through 2 cities and take all day • Today - Cooperation with multiple countries and agencies this can now be done in 16 hours, flying over the North Pole - Russia - China • Growth in number of flights • 1999 UAL operated 12 Polar demo flights • 2000 UAL operated 253 Polar flights • 2001 UAL operated 466 Polar flights • 2002 and 2003 UAL operated over 600 Polar flights

11. Aviation • Aviation interests are significantly impacted • by solar radiation storms • Radiation storms create a communications • problem and a biological threat. Polar flights departing from North America use VHF (30-300 MHz) comm with Canadian ATCs. Flights will continue using VHF with Arctic Radio, but soon switch to HF (3 – 30 MHz). SATCOM is considered a backup during polar flights, but it is rarely available above 82 degrees north latitude.

12. Contingency • If problems detected prior to departure, Russian Far East Route selected • If problem occurs before reaching the polar area, the flight is re-routed. This option likely results in an unplanned fuel stop – typically Alaska. • If the problem occurs after the aircraft has entered the area, the flight continues.

13. Polar Operations Support • Meteorology and Dispatch Joint Effort • Polar Package • Space Weather • Jointly determined that events S3 (>1000 pfu >10 MeV) and greater are cause for concern • Flight planning begins ~8 hours out • select ~3 routes – depending on weather, other constraints

14. Space Weather Aviation Webpage NOAA ScalesMaximum in Currently past 24-hours Geomagnetic Storms minor none Solar Radiation Storms none none Radio Blackouts moderate moderate 24 Hour Forecast Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be extreme. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G5 level are expected. Solar radiation storms reaching the S3 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level are expected. T O D A Y’ S S P A C E W E A T H E R Watches, Warnings, Alerts, and Summaries Issue Time: 2004 Feb 24 1713 UTCALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5Threshold Reached: 2004 Feb 24 1712 UTC Radio Blackout Plot Polar Plot

15. Selected Solar Activity Affected Polar Flights • Aug 16-17, 2001 New York and Chicago to Hong Kong • JFK and ORD to HKG flights operated on Polar 4 (instead of Polar 2 and 3) both days. Average penalty of 30 minutes and 15,000 pounds of denied payload • Oct 19, 2003 UAL 801 New York to Tokyo • Flight time increased 34 minutes and 10,700 pounds fuel added, with 7500 pounds cargo denied • Oct 19, 2003 UAL 851 Chicago to Beijing • Flight time increased 25 minutes and 7,600 pounds fuel added • Oct 24, 2003UAL 895 Chicago to Hong Kong • Flight time increased 31 minutes and 8,300 gallons fuel added and 9100 pounds cargo denied

17. Cost Impacts • Airlines tell us typical cost per flight due to space weather event is $10k-100k • March 30-April 21, 2001 • UAL had 25 affected flights • My estimates of the itemized cost to airlines • Cargo • $1000/ton – highly variable • Fuel • $3.50/gallon – highly volatile

18. Back to some general SEC stuff • Product growth • Customers? • Impossible to capture true number of customers • NWS Service Assessment

19. Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23 • The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month • Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)

20. https://pss.sec.noaa.gov/ Service Begins Lockheed Martin Management NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups… NASDA (Japan) Mission Control CSA (Canada) Mission Control • NASA Mission Control • NASA Management • Flight Control • Biomedical Engineers • Surgeon ESA (Europe) Mission Control NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group RSA (Russia) Mission Control NOAA/SEC Radiation Alert/Warning Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems

21. 46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site: • 35 updating Plots, • 8 real-time lists • 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials" • Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data • A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers • SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month. ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users: Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United Kingdom Education .net (commercial) Germany Russia Australia Belgium

22. List of recipients for NOAA SEC Alerts & Warnings (distributed by JSC NASA)

23. Service Assessment Intense Space Weather Storms October 19 – November 07, 2003 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland http://www.sec.noaa.gov/AboutSEC/SWstorms_assessment.pdf • 17 X-ray flares • 2 ICME’s transited in 19 hrs • ACE capabilities degraded • Over 270 watches, warnings • and alerts • Radio Blackout alerts – 17 • Geomag. storm alerts – 41 • Radiation storm alerts – 31 • Over 300 media contacts

24. SEC Space Weather AdvisoryOfficial Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Environment Center, Boulder, Colorado, USASPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #03- 2 2003 October 21 at 06:11 p.m. MDT (2003 October 22 0011 UTC) **** INTENSE ACTIVE REGIONS EMERGE ON SUN **** Two very dynamic centers of activity have emerged on the sun. NOAA Region 484 developed rapidly over the past three days and is now one of the largest sunspot clusters to emerge during Solar Cycle 23, approximately 10 times larger than Earth. This region, which is nearing the center of the solar disk, already produced a major flare (category R3 Radio Blackout on the NOAA Space Weather Scales) on 19 October at 1650 UTC. The region continues to grow, and additional substantial flare activity is likely. A second intense active region is rotating around the southeast limb of the sun. Though the sunspot group is not yet visible, two powerful eruptions occurred on 21 October as seen from the LASCO instrument on the SOHO spacecraft. These eruptions may herald the arrival of a volatile active center with the potential to impact various Earth systems. Further major eruptions are possible from these active regions as they rotate across the face of the sun over the next two weeks.Agencies impacted by solar flare radio blackouts, geomagnetic storms, and solar radiation storms may experience disruptions over this two-week period. These include satellite and other spacecraft operations, power systems, HF communications, and navigation systems.

25. One way forecasters respond • GOES/XRS – automated flare detection – various thresholds – audible alarm and text display • GOES/SXI – automated flare location – text display • Check of other sources – LASCO, Type II… • HALO CME e-mail list or do their own speed calculation. Assess event size, direction, morphology • Check ‘Major Events Database’ – what did other events like this do • Issue Watch

26. K >4 K =4 K <4 Major Events Database • X17 Flare Oct 28 • The extreme magnitude and speed of the event led the forecasters to examine the historical record to provide some guidance for the likely Sun-Earth transit time. It was found that the fastest Sun-Earth transit of a CME observed to date for the current solar cycle was 28 hours, from the X5 flare on July 14, 2000. Forecasters expected this CME transit to be even faster, and predicted a transit time of 24 hours. Geomagnetic storm watches were issued predicting the strongest geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 23. • X8 Flare Nov 2 • Historical data revealed that the geomagnetic response from large CMEs that originated from near the west limb varied dramatically. Given the intensity of the recent storms, forecasters predicted another severe storm with an onset in less than 25 hours. Updated LASCO imagery on November 03 (Figure 6), revealed that while there was an Earth-directed component (full halo CME was identified), most of the ejecta were directed away from Earth: an impact was likely, but the storming would be considerably less than initially expected. Also significant was the deceleration of the CME as it moved away from the Sun. The initial prediction for a <25 hour arrival was changed to ~40 hours. A short-lived geomagnetic storm began early on November 04 (36.5 hour transit) and briefly reached severe levels before quickly subsiding.

27. An All Clear Forecast • X28 Nov 4, 2003 • Airline dispatchers assumed that S3 level would be exceeded • From source location, West Limb, forecasters advised airlines that S3 threshold would not be reached • Thus, airlines could fly their optimal polar routes. • Maximum storm size - S2

28. Service Assessment Findings • Finding (1 out of 9): Significant shortfalls exist in warning and forecast capability due to inadequate models and tools to derive forecast products. There is currently limited capability to warn for solar flare radio blackouts, high energy radiation storms, and many other aspects of space weather. • The recent activity highlighted the need for the following models (2 of 6): • Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation - CME characterization (mass, speed, direction, and magnetic structure) for predicting time of CME arrival and onset and intensity of geomagnetic storming. • Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) - SEP spectra for airlines, satellite anomaly, and manned space flight hazard prediction. Airline companies and satellite operators requested more detailed SEP onset time and duration predictions.

29. Lessons Learned • How and why some missions are useful • Or – why forecasters use their data • ACE – we planned for this one • SOHO – produced some surprises

30. Lessons Learned - ACE • Keys to forecast center use • Reliability 24/7 • Latency – commensurate with timescale of alert/warning/forecast • First data in 1997 • Worked before launch to ensure continuous receipt of data directly to the forecast center • Global ground station network meets this need • Magnetometer and solar wind data were expected to be used • Bz, VSW • Proof of concept for operations • ACE follow-on mission being studied (BAA)

31. ACE – unexpected uses • ACE/EPAM proton data • Energetic Ion Enhancement (EIE) • signature of approaching magnetic cloud • Forecasters need to do forecast specific studies • Forecasters need to understand the science/methodology • Avoid confusion with CIR signature

32. EIE Begins CME Observed Shock Arrival Transient Shocks • Shock accelerated protons move ahead of the source, seen at L1 hours before transient arrival • Allows forecaster to monitor approach of shock • As shock approaches, flux of accelerated particles increases • EIE typically peaks with the shock arrival • Peak in EIE flux believed to correlate with geomagnetic response • Can we use EIE flux as a predictor of geomagnetic activity from transients? • Define an appropriate EIE threshold to forecast major to severe geomagnetic storming

33. Forecast Study • Reviewed EPAM data (47-65 keV): Apr 98 - Dec 00 • EIE flux of 104 particle flux units (pfu) marked onset of “event” • Recorded EIE event particulars (peak flux and timing) and corresponding Kp/Ap (Potsdam) • Identified EIE sources and categorized into Transient, High Speed Stream (HSS), Unknown, or Exclude • Recorded a total of 113 events • 83 Transients, 21 HSS, 5 Unknown, 4 Exclude • Used the Transients and Unknown (88 events) to compute statistics • Correlated peak EIE flux with geomagnetic response • 5  105 pfu best threshold to predict major-severe storms

34. Study Results EIE Max  5  105

35. Timing • Time from EIE event onset (104 pfu) to shock ranged from 0 - 36 hours • Highly dependent on peak EIE flux • EIE peak typically coincident with shock arrival at L1 • Largest Kp values occurred up to 22 hours after EIE peak • Maximum running Ap typically observed in first 24 hours following EIE peak, but up to 42 hours after peak

36. Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data

37. Lessons Learned - SOHO • Reliability and Latency issues are key • Reliability – mostly good • Latency - good • SOHO team ‘sold’ the utility of the data to SEC • Jan 1997 event a prime example

38. Lessons Learned - SOHO • Currently use EIT, LASCO and MDI • Less use of EIT now that GOES/SXI is operational • Worked with SOHO teams to ensure rapid access to data and for simple analysis tools • Happened slowly over time • Auto-ftp gif images directly from SOHO operations center • LASCO team issues Halo CME alerts with relevant measurements • Assumed source location, velocity, PA • Not always in the time needed, so SEC does its own analysis

39. The big list • A list of the highest priority needs • As identified by a survey of forecasters • Latest version completed Feb, 2006 • Not a complete list of needs • I just got this latest list, so I’m not sure of the specifics for some of these

40. SEC Highest Priority Operational Needs • Solar energetic particle event forecasts • including start time, end time, peak flux, time of peak flux, spectra, fluence, and probability of occurrence • Geomagnetic indices (e.g., Ap, Kp, Dst) and probability forecasts • Background solar wind prediction • Solar wind data from L1 • Solar coronagraph data • Energetic electron flux prediction for International Space Station • Regional geomagnetic activity nowcasts and forecasts • Ionospheric maps of TEC and scintillation (real-time and future) • Solar particle degradation of polar HF radio propagation

41. SEC High Priority Operational Needs • Improved image analysis capability (e.g., for GOES-N SXI, STEREO, SDO) • Short-term (days) F10.7 forecasts • Short-term (days) X-ray flare forecasts • EUV index • Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days) based on CME observations, coronal hole observations, solar magnetic observations, and ACE/EPAM observations • Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary space (e.g. view from above the ecliptic tracking an ICME) • Geomagnetic storm end-time forecast • Real-time estimates of geomagnetic indices • Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all warning/watch/forecast products • Routine statistical and/or numerical guidance for all forecast quantities • e.g., climatological forecasts of flares, geomagnetic indices and probabilities, and F10.7—similar to NWS Model Output Statistics • Magnetopause crossing forecasts based on L1 data

42. Proton event prediction • Lots of new data since the operational model was last updated (1998) • A little activity in this area – working on validating some of the model outputs (e.g. >100MeV) • CME speed is a good discriminator (~1200 km/s) • Represents a real, significant need in the operational community (viz Oct-Nov effects) • Airlines want 8 hr lead time • Okay, not realistic but better ability to predict event peak fluxes and event duration would be worthwhile • Maybe we can do 8 hr lead on exceeding a threshold for certain events • The demand for better energetic particle prediction can only increase in the future

43. Solar wind structure • Coronal holes (high speed streams) are the main driver of geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of the cycle • Solar sector boundaries are also important • Wang-Sheeley-Arge model is a good start, but needs more development • Better modeling could significantly improve forecasting the onset of activity • Provides an important context for CMEs • CME acceleration/deceleration depends on the pre-existing ambient solar wind into which it flows

44. SDO • Our ability to use these data depends on: • Utility – that’s where the science (and you) comes in • Reliability – not an issue • Latency – not an issue • Long lifetime a huge asset • Although we expect more from STEREO, we consider it ‘limited’ due to the short lifetime. • Bottom line is, forecasters will use it if it helps them

45. Themes of the AIA • Energy input, storage, and release: the 3-D dynamic coronal structure • 3D configuration of the solar corona; mapping magnetic free energy; evolution of the corona towards unstable configurations; the life-cycle of atmospheric field • Coronal heating and irradiance: thermal structure and emission • Contributions to solar (E)UV irradiance by types of features; physical properties of irradiance-modulating features; physical models of the irradiance-modulating features; physics-based predictive capability for the spectral irradiance • Transients: sources of radiation and energetic particles • Unstable field configurations and initiation of transients; evolution of transients; early evolution of CME’s; particle acceleration • Connections to geospace: material and magnetic field output of the Sun • Dynamic coupling of the corona and heliosphere; solar wind energetics; propagation of CME’s and related phenomena; vector field and velocity • Coronal seismology: a new diagnostic to access coronal physics • Evolution, propagation, and decay of transverse and longitudinal waves; probing coronal physics with waves; the role of magnetic topology in wave phenomena All of the themes have Space Weather implications

46. Objectives of the HMI • Convection-zone dynamics and the solar dynamo • Evolution of meridional circulation – solar cycle prediction • Origin and evolution of sunspots, active regions and complexes of activity • Active region source and evolution; sunspot lifetime – next day probabilities • Sources and drivers of solar activity and disturbances • Origin and dynamics of magnetic sheared structures and δ-type sunspots; magnetic configuration and mechanisms of flares and CME’s – improved predictions of flares and maybe even CME’s • Links between the internal processes and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere • Coronal magnetic structure and solar wind – solar wind important as cause of geomagnetic storms and the influence on ICME’s • Precursors of solar disturbances for space weather forecasts. • Far-side imaging and active index; determination of magnetic cloud Bs events – longer lead time forecasting, improved geomagnetic storm forecasts All of the themes have Space Weather implications

47. How we’ll use AIA and HMI • AIA • Backup to SXI • during eclipse season • Possibility that GOES-12 SXI will die and GOES-N will not be made operational immediately • Flare location? (USAF) • 10s vs 60s • CME signatures • Waves, dimmings • HMI • Far-side imaging

48. How we’d like to use AIA and HMI • 10 sec cadence – precursors or unique signatures • We’ll need automated feature recognition • Robust, few false alarms, easily validated • Identifying the magnetic field configurations which lead to CME’s, filament eruptions and flares • Emerging flux/AR’s – actual lead time for flare and CME forecasts • … • … • … • …

49. Event detection needed! • Automated event detection will be a necessity • Automatically identify when something significant happens; i.e. event detection, favorable conditions • There is way too much SDO data for the forecaster to be able to watch for everything • Flares, waves, dimmings, precursors, emerging flux… • Others…pretty much anything you can imagine

50. Additional AIA uses • Show us whether we need to improve spatial/temporal resolution of future GOES SXI • Calibration/tracking of GOES SXI • New insight into phenomena we are interested in? • Flare precursors • CME diagnostics • Flare location • Coronal Hole area/location • Active Region area/complexity • Returning active regions • CME diagnostics