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CIRA/NESDIS AMSU TC Intensity and Structure Algorithm Update

CIRA/NESDIS AMSU TC Intensity and Structure Algorithm Update. Physical retrievals (no-changes) Statistical Corrections Revised (Demuth et al 2005) Larger Datasets 1999 – 2004, All basins New predictors Extensively cross validated.

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CIRA/NESDIS AMSU TC Intensity and Structure Algorithm Update

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  1. CIRA/NESDIS AMSU TC Intensity and Structure Algorithm Update • Physical retrievals (no-changes) • Statistical Corrections Revised (Demuth et al 2005) • Larger Datasets 1999 – 2004, All basins • New predictors • Extensively cross validated

  2. Distribution of tropical cyclone cases by basin for the intensity estimation datasets. Shown is the dataset for MSW, with n=2637 cases. For MSLP, with n=2624 cases, only the Atlantic and east Pacific distributions are different, with 31.9% and 25.2%, respectively.

  3. Cross-validated error statistics for the estimates of MSW and MSLP, stratified by tropical cyclone intensity. The statistics for the hurricane-strength storms are shown all together, and divided by the categorical intensity based on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

  4. Comparison of variance explained (R2) and error statistics (MAE and rmse) for azimuthally averaged 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii between revised algorithms (new model) and D04 algorithms (old model).

  5. SAB’s evaluations • 2005 reconnaissance pressure observations vs. AMSU intensity estimates • Through Vince (10/14/2005) Provided by Greg Gallina (NOAA/NESDIS/SAB)

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